Wendy Sherman, an Obama administration nominee to a top State Department position, declared officially in her Senate testimony that the US would veto the Palestinian application for statehood, when brought to a vote in the Security Council. No big surprise to US policy watchers, but a big sigh of relief to the besieged Netanyahu government in Jerusalem.
The Israeli Premier can, from his vantage point, portray the statement as a vindication of his policy towards the impending September vote, as well as a reaffirmation of the strong connections between Israel and the US. He is hereby advised to qualify both thoughts and put them in perspective.
The veto in the Security Council may torpedo the immediate recognition of a Palestinian state as a full-fledged member of the UN, but it will not put this issue to rest so far as Israel is concerned. Far from it, the issue will be put on center stage of international politics and is likely to stay there for a long time. Some may argue that there is nothing new about that, as this is always a pivotal issue, but there is a difference when a big majority of the world votes in favor of Palestinian statehood, including some Western countries. This vote coupled with troubles on the ground, that are very likely to erupt, will put enormous PR, as well as diplomatic pressure on Israel, on an ongoing basis. Israel can stand up to it, including the possibility of economic damage, but will need, perhaps more than ever, the strong and continuing support of the Obama administration, and this is where Netanyahu may be disappointed as we go beyond the initial vote in September.
In colloquial language it is called "no free meals", and a reminder of what may be the shape of things to come was provided just few days ago, as it was leaked that former Secretary of defense, Robert Gates, attacked Netanyahu for being "ungrateful" to the US for all its support for Israel, particularly in the fields of military and intelligence exchanges. It so happened that the attack on Netanyahu came after the PM was critical of a certain aspect of American policy, something that was already cleared between Gates and his Israeli counterpart Ehud Barak. Netanyahu was simply unaware of this -- not an uncommon feature of the way he runs his coalition government -- and Gates reacted accordingly. Netanyahu's office retorted by mentioning the fact, that Israel-US relations are solid, as was demonstrated in his speech to Congress.
Both Gates' comment and Netanyahu's reaction are not accidental though. Strong elements in the American defense and intelligence establishment have traditionally expressed reservations about the closeness of the relations between US and Israel, an attitude which has existed during Republican, as well as Democratic administrations. Gates himself served both administrations. Netanyahu must be aware of this, and is expected therefore, to act in the most responsible way in dealing with these elements in the American administration, and not take them for granted only because of congress support.
The reliance on Congress is understandable, but can not come on the expense of other branches of the American body politic. Netanyahu, as well as previous Likud governments, seems to sometimes overlook this simple reality. The Obama administration is a popular target for criticism -- sometimes ridicule -- among elements in the Pro-Israel community in the US, as well as many Israelis. This is a mistaken, completely unjustified attitude, something that is causing unnecessary damage to vital Israeli interests. The military-strategic cooperation between the two countries is at a record level under the current administration. There is a divergence of opinions on various issues, as can be expected even between the closest of allies, but this is inevitable, and what matters is the big picture of friendship.
This is where the Netanyahu government should be very careful not to weaken the depth of the American resolve to help Israel deal with its most significant problems, such as the impending UN session about Palestinian statehood and its possible implications. Netanyahu can still do more to help the US help Israel, and he does not seem to do that. He can even today offer Abbas to enter into immediate negotiations leading to a two-states solution, a solution that both leaders claim their adherence to. He should bear in mind, that while the Obama administration is committed to veto Palestinian statehood in the Security Council, they do it very reluctantly, hoping to prevent, even at the eleventh hour, this unpleasant need.
Israeli initiative, even at that late hour to help the Obama administration, will not be a loss of face for Netanyahu, rather a gain of much-needed goodwill towards the day
After the UN vote.