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Dr. Josef Olmert

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Something Is Happening in Jordan

Posted: 12/30/11 05:34 PM ET

King Abdullah of Jordan is one of the West's last remaining favorite sons in the Middle East. His English is impeccable, much better than his Arabic, the result of many years of good Western schooling. He has the image of the ultimate moderate, reasonable Arab leader, and he still adheres to the letter, much less so to the spirit of the peace treaty with Israel, signed by his late father, King Hussein.

The Hashemites of Jordan have long cultivated their image as benign autocrats, massacres like Black September of 1970 against their Palestinian enemies notwithstanding...

The King is popular in the Western press, and he likes to grant interviews in which His Royal, wise opinions receive much positive attention. Such was his interview with the Washington Post in October in which he candidly admitted that the Arab spring did not happen as a result of political problems, but because of poverty and unemployment. He should know, as these are exactly the issues plaguing his kingdom, which is still a poor country looking for brighter future than its current predicament.

Interestingly enough, the King did not mention the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a root cause of his and his Kingdom's problems, an omission that comes as a sharp contradiction to what he said in some of his other recent interviews. In them, he blasted Israel for its lack of effort in the peace process, attacked those in Israel (though never mentioning specific names) who relate to Jordan as the alternate Palestinian homeland -- the misguided Jordan-is-Palestine crowd of extreme Israeli right-wingers -- and went as far as threatening to use his military to prevent it from happening.

The rhetoric was harsh, and to many in Israel it seemed totally irrelevant, as the King knows full well that the current Israeli government completely rejects the Jordan-is-Palestine outcry. It seemed that the King has decided to assume a new role -- that of the regional pontificator-in-chief, particularly when it concerns Israel and its PM Benjamin Netanyahu.

By so doing, the King may have tried to wear shoes somewhat bigger than his real size, and he may have been tempted to do so, exactly because of his growing domestic problems, playing a typical Arab game of trying to divert attention from himself towards Israel and its policies. Up to a point, this is a risk-free game for the King, as he can be sure that the traditional Israeli guarantee for the survivability of the Hashemite Kingdom is still in place. But, things are changing, and even as smart a politician as the King cannot be sure that the Israelis will do for him in the future what they did so many times for his father; for example in that notorious Black September massacre, when Jordan was invaded by the Syrian army, and the Israelis threatened to intervene in order to save the King.

Dealing with Israel may be attractive for the King also because he simply has no effective response to his own internal problems. So, preaching his political gospel to foreigners is a good outlet. But is it really? Events in Jordan since the beginning of 2011, and particularly in the last three months clearly indicate that Jordan could be the next chip to fall in the current volatile Middle East political climate. The Islamic opposition, as well as Jordanians of various political stripes, are intensifying their protests against the regime and, on some occasions, against the monarch himself.

Charges of corruption involving Majdi Al-Yasin, the King's brother-in-law, are publicly uttered. One of the opposition groups outside of Jordan directly calling for the removal of the "Hashemite Occupation" of Jordan (the Hashemites are originally from the Hijaz, Saudi Arabia of today). This is an ironic reminder to the King, that Jordan may not be Palestine, but it is also not a country to be ruled by a "foreigner" like him. Among the swelling ranks of the opposition there are elements and personalities that one could not expect to see in the past. Members of some of the most loyal Bedouin tribes, such as the Banu Sakher and Banu Hassan, a former PM and head of intelligence, Ahmad Ubaydat, and retired army officers, who publicly express grudges against the King for being too lenient towards the Palestinians in the kingdom.

And with that we come to the real dark horse: the Palestinian population which constitutes two thirds of Jordan's people. In an ideal world, the Palestinians were expected to demand their right for self-determination also in Jordan, where they are the clear majority, and the King who preaches to Israel to recognize this right when it comes to the West Bank and Gaza should have supported it, but this is not going to happen...

What is happening is that King Abdullah's government just confirmed that Khaled Mashal, Hamas' supreme leader, is about to visit the Kingdom. According to unconfirmed reports, this visit may be the prelude for the transfer of Hamas' entire leadership to Jordan. Really? Jordan of the moderate King, who goes the extra mile to convince us all that Jordan is not Palestine? It seems that if the reports are correct, the King is scoring more than one own goal.

Damascus under Bashar Assad was the home of the Hamas leadership until recently, when the latter realized that being in bed with this murderous regime may be detrimental to their standing in the Arab world. There are many reasons why King Abdullah may like to host Mashal and company -- to use them as a leverage against Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, or to accommodate the requests of some Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which may have asked him to do so. Possibly, and more likely, it's to indicate to his Palestinian residents that his anti-Israel credentials are intact. The problem is that the King himself said, that the issue in Jordan is about the economy. How can Mashal help him with that? On top of all that is the strong possibility that once in Amman, the Hamas leadership could become the catalyst for a future eruption of Palestinian grievances in the kingdom. The King may believe that he can tame the shrew, but can he really?

And last but not least, what will happen if Hamas finds itself embroiled again in armed conflict with Israel, a country with which Jordan has a peace treaty? King Abdullah may think that he knows the answers. The Middle East's shifting sands could still prove otherwise.

 
 
 
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02:18 PM on 01/01/2012
Breaking News: The Middle East is still a complicated, volatile mess.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Nehad Ismail
07:07 AM on 01/01/2012
The article raises several issues that need clarification. On the peace process Jordan supports the 2-state solution which is also the USA official position. Only through genuine peace Israel and its neighbours can enjoy security, stability and economic prosperity. There was no Black September massacre as such in 1970. Militant Palestinians acting on behalf of Syria were trying to create a state-within-a-state exactly as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon recently. The late King Hussein had to act to flush the militants out. The people of Jordan were behind the King and years later Palestinian leading figures admitted the "big mistakes of 1970". King Abdullah enjoys popular support and has embarked on a serious program of reforms.
01:41 PM on 01/01/2012
How can you deny the reality of Black Sept. massacre? Even though Palestinian sources quote 5000 dead, Jordan itself claims 3400 dead. The PLO were forced out into Lebanon. And how about Jordan's revoking Pal'ns of their citizenship since 2004?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
01:47 PM on 12/31/2011
Well, Hamas recently publicly claimed to renounce "armed struggle", a fact nearly ignored by the media. Could this be another step in the direction of trying to make Hamas a legitimate political party? Too early to say for sure.

I'm a fierce critic of Hamas, but if these are legitimate steps towards peace, they need to be encouraged.
05:33 PM on 12/31/2011
In english maybe. In arabic their support for terrorism against civilians has never ceased, and it's very naive of you to think otherwise.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
01:35 AM on 01/01/2012
Cite some evidence please, because I have news articles that say otherwise.
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Yank in France
Rien se cree tout se transforme
01:09 PM on 12/31/2011
Funny how Israel's ultra-rightist supporters, and even US "liberal" supporters of Israel are, at base, ultra-rightists (far to the right of Ron Paul or even GW Bush on these matters), attack one ally after another of the United States.

Israel's supporters don't just limit themselves to Arab or Iranian regimes, but have also succeeded in blotting France, Germany, Switzerland, the Scandinavian countries and virtually all the rest of Europe from the right to be considered a reliable ally of the United States.

Many, both in and out of the utterly pro-Israel news media in the United States even went along with a campaign to remove one of America's most valuable historic monuments, the Statue of Liberty, because France refused to go along with Israel's war on Iraq -- oops, I meant America's war...

Jordan is NOT going to become a pro-Hamas bastion but sources in the Israeli press do see signs that the Islamic is showing signs of moderation with its recent peace ouverture. 

But that doesn't stop people like Dr Olmert from pretending to oppose the ultra-rightists in Israel while condemning the Jordanian king for criticizing Netanyahu. Frankly, it is hard to imagine a more hypocritical band of political sidewinders than the Israel Lobby!!
03:39 PM on 12/31/2011
Critical thinking like yours is what's absolutely essential at this point. Americans are waking up to the neo-con nightmare! Keep it up!
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
messy
artist, writer, adventurer
07:41 PM on 12/31/2011
Even if it's muddled and totally wrong?
05:35 PM on 12/31/2011
You don't seem to understand what the term "right wing" means. Here's a hint; supporting democratic liberal nations against reactionary religious fanatics cannot be considered "far right".

Here's another; israel had nothing to do with the war in iraq. Even then, the israeli security establishment was more concerned with iran.
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Yank in France
Rien se cree tout se transforme
08:25 PM on 12/31/2011
As usual, you revise history to suit your simplistic ideology. The vast majority of Israeli public opinion (way over 80%) and the major parities all supported ENTHUSIASTICALLY the Iraq invasion. Do you even know the difference between truth and LIES, squirms, or do you even care?!
01:05 PM on 12/31/2011
The Israelis want the Palestinians to go to Jordan so they can have a "pure" country. Fine, have Jordan annex the West Bank and Gaza and have free elections, which will surely throw out the "foreign" king. Then you have a sovereign state of Palestinian Jordan. See how Israel likes that.
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Freenation
12:25 PM on 12/31/2011
When can we see article from Olmert describing the plight of Orthodox American jewish girl who is tormented by radical settlers? wait Israeli radicals are not in Olmert scope...
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
messy
artist, writer, adventurer
07:43 PM on 12/31/2011
No, the vast majority of israelis support the girl in question.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Freenation
08:40 PM on 12/31/2011
i was addressing olmert, if you noticed...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Original Intent
Because "Shall" is a directive, not a suggestion.
09:02 AM on 01/02/2012
Olmert? Catch up.... It's Benjamin Netanyahu who is the Prime Minister.
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Freenation
02:59 PM on 01/02/2012
Catch up: he is brother of guy before Netanyahu..
12:09 PM on 12/31/2011
If Jordan hosts Hamas than it will be declaring enmity with Israel. Not the best thing for peace and stability in the region.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
01:49 PM on 12/31/2011
Maybe not. Hamas claims to be trying to shed its violent past. If these are just words, then you are right. If this is sincere, then this is a positive development. Too early to call it.
03:04 PM on 01/02/2012
I just read that our State Department is in the process of starting negotiations with the Taliban. So therefor, since these people are Muslims, it follows that we will be declaring enmity with Israel. What is it with you?
08:12 PM on 01/02/2012
I fail to see how your comment relates in any way, shape or form to what I said. How does our negotiating with a group that we are fighting with have anything to do with Israel?

As for Hamas, it is a deadly enemy of Israel's. No country friendly to Israel is going to host Hamas' leadership. As shown by its current host, Syria, which is an enemy of Israel. If Jordan, a country that has been at peace with Israel, agrees to host the leadership of a deadly enemy of Israel, that is clearly a sign of enmity to Israel.

What part of this do you not understand???
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Nehad Ismail
11:26 AM on 12/31/2011
Continuing my comment; as for Hamas moving to Jordan, there would be stringent conditions attached. Hamas may have an administrative liaison office, but it will not have an operational base. It will not be allowed to mount attacks against Israel or anyone else. Jordan values and respects the peace agreement with Israel.
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AZreb
equal-opportunity Independent heathen
08:44 AM on 12/31/2011
For heaven's sake - this kind of stuff has gone on for decades - and in our own government! We supported and armed and helped dictators, autocrats and monarchies for years and years with our presidents giving them hugs and atta-boys and we still are! Look at Bahrain - we didn't say a word when Saudi troops marched into that country to suppress the protestors and why? Because of the Fifth Fleet anchored in waters by Bahrain and that Saudi Arabia is one of our BFFs in the Middle East.

I was always told to clean up my own act before criticizing others - maybe our own government should take that advice.
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Dredd
Our government is a wartocracy.
08:31 AM on 12/31/2011
When the propaganda is turned against Jordan, it is a sign that our foreign policy is an abysmal failure.
07:59 AM on 12/31/2011
This whole intractable situation was created by the British and French colonial offices in the aftermath of the 1st World War, when the two European empires decided to carve up the corpse of the old Ottoman Empire to suit the national aspirations of London and Paris, with little regard for the wishes of the locals. There WAS a time when the Emir Faisal shook hands with Chaim Weizmann and a Jewish state in the land of Israel would have been welcomed...then Britain started lying to both sides and betraying everybody.
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07:52 AM on 12/31/2011
The sad and tragic thing is that the best hope of the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians is some sort of federation with the Kingdom of Jordan which, after all, IS a part of former Mandatory Palestine, part of the same southern Syrian territory of the old Ottoman Empire, and over 65% Palestinian. A peaceful, demilitarised Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza would enjoy greater opportunities if linked to Jordan. Security and prosperity for the new Palestine, Israel and Jordan would be enhanced. Hamas and the rejectionists are NOT the way forward for the Palestinian Arabs.
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10:09 PM on 12/30/2011
Nonsense. Why would Hamas transfer either its real or titular leadership to Jordan at the same time that Hamas and Fatah are reconciling? It makes no sense other than as a reflection of the wishful thinking of Dr. Olmert. Mashaal, as part of his integration within a larger Palestinian leadership, and a recognition of the dynamics of the Arab Spring, has already accepted Israel within the '67 borders.

Hussein, the rare Arab leader who has a clue, is opening a door to Hamas because he sees the obvious; Hamas will soon be an integeral part of the state of Palestine. Olmert is yesterday.
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03:50 AM on 12/31/2011
"Mashaal...has already accepted Israel within the '67 borders.

Enlighten us all, when did this happen?
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Yank in France
Rien se cree tout se transforme
01:17 PM on 12/31/2011
"Enlighten" you? That's a big task, but Hamas has already stated that if they thought that Israel had any intention of withdrawing to the pré-1967 boudaries, they would have no problem making peace with Israel.

The problem, they have always claimed, is that Israel has zero intention of reverting to the 1967 borders, as per UN resolution 242.

Unbelievable but it would appear that Israel and its duplicitous supporters have proven them right!
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09:46 PM on 12/30/2011
Jordan is 77% of the original Mandate for Palestine. That's not some fringe theory, that's a simple fact.
07:56 AM on 12/31/2011
Indeed. And the "Mandate for Palestine" only existed post-WWI. Before that, there was no political, social, national entity known as "Palestine;" there was only the Ottoman provinces that usually got lumped together as "Syria" or "southern Syria." Arab figures have said so as well.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Stoopid American
Trooth, justice, and the American way ...
01:54 PM on 12/31/2011
Who cares? There was no Israel then, either. What matters is where do we go from here. How do we find a sustainable peace deal that allows both parties to finally get on with their lives?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
08:14 AM on 12/31/2011
And the FBI is part of the Department of Homeland Security.

Does that mean there is no FBI?
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04:11 PM on 12/31/2011
Take a logic class sometime
05:38 PM on 12/31/2011
Worst counter argument ever.

Honestly, i expected better from you.