The very celebrated Syrian ceasefire crumbled with the Assad army intentionally attacking and devastating a humanitarian convoy on its way to the dying city of Aleppo. No surprise there, and for me, the only surprise is when I read and hear those who who do not understand how ''he can do it to his people." Elementary to sober Syrian watchers, HE does not view these people as his. They are Sunnis and others, only nominally Syrians, practically enemies, and the Syrian conflict is ALL OR NOTHING, either ''we'' the Alawites, or ''them'' the Sunnis. This blog called attention way back to the genocidal nature of the campaign over Aleppo, and much before to the overall nature of the civil war, as being one which may end up in ethnic cleansing and genocide. That said, even a terrible situation can get MUCH worse, and we are witnessing now a very potentially dangerous scenario developing. It is the actual turning of Syria into the regional and international playground.
American aerial attack leaves scores of dead Syrian soldiers dead, Russian air attacks, Turkish invasion designed to create a very large security buffer, as President Erdogan speaks now about 5000 square KMs size territory, contrary to the early statements about few miles of depth, and much less talked about, but probably most ominous of all, Iran and Hizballah are trying to establish a base in South Syria. From there more ''incidental'' shootings towards Israel. In a way, nothing surprising here, just a confirmation of the disintegration of the Syrian state, but still an ever threatening situation due to the special circumstances of the disintegration. Take a similar case in mind, but just superficially similar, Lebanon in 1975-6. Then, there was a regional dimension to the civil war, but one restricted mainly to Israel and Syria. Only one international player of consequence, the US, and so it was not so difficult for American mediation to bring Israel and Syria to agree on the so-called Red Lines Agreement, which in effect was in place until 1982-the Israeli-PLO war in which Syria was involved. Not the case now. US AND Russia in the international scene,with Russia so much at play due largely to American no-policy policy. Turkey, Iran and Hizballah as regional actors, and NO Syria. This is a situation with serious destabilizing implications in North Syria, where most of these players are in operation, but potentially catastrophic implications in South Syria, where Israel may very soon need to deal by itself with Iran and Hizballah, with no third party capable of being the go-between like the US was in 1975-6 in Lebanon, and no viable neighboring country to play the role about Syria, which the former played about Lebanon back then.
The frequency of attacks from Syria indicates,that the hostile forces there are testing Israel and its resolve. What adds fuel to the fire is the fact, that the Syrian army in the South is incapable and very likely unwilling to intervene and reassert authority over the various factions which dig in there. The Syrians definitely owe Iran and its allies for their support in the civil war. Why not attacking Israel? The Assad regime maintained traditionally very quiet border with Israel until 2011, but then it was a strong regime and one Syria. No more, and there are growing signs, that what is left of the Assad regime is more ready than before to play the Israeli card and provoke troubles on the border. Hizballah will surely prefer troubles with Israel in the Golan, rather than in Lebanon, and Iran? Well, after the Iran nuclear deal, the Islamic Republic just sharpened the anti Israel rhetoric. Israel cannot afford the creation of an Iranian-Hizballah mini republic in South Syria on top of the one in South Lebanon. Netanyahu will soon have to make a decision and while he has displayed a very reserved attitude until now, he may be forced to reverse his policy, if the attacks from Syria will intensify, there will unfortunately be Israeli casualties and consequently domestic pressures to act. Situations with such a high risk potential as this one should be nipped in the bud. Israel may have to act soon, sooner than what its leaders and army have had in mind.
It can still be averted, but with so many actors around, with so many conflicting interests at play it is becoming almost impossible, with VERY high stakes on the balance.