More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Dr. Josef Olmert

GET UPDATES FROM Dr. Josef Olmert
 

What September Holds for Israel-Palestine

Posted: 05/31/11 02:17 PM ET

The UN General Assembly has long been the yearly festival of Israel bashing -- the more, the better; and so Israelis have become cynical about this event, so much so that PM Netanyahu, echoing a statement made by the late Abba Eban, said that any resolution presented by the Arab-Muslim bloc will be accepted, even one that describes Planet Earth as being flat.

PM Netanyahu enjoyed some good days after his speech to the American Congress, basking in the glowing reviews of his performance, appearing in both liberal and conservative American media. The days of glory were painfully short though.

A few days ago, Netanyahu told the Defense and Foreign Affairs committee of the Knesset that there is no way that Israel could prevent an overwhelming General Assembly resolution recognizing an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. No big surprise for the Israeli public, but a statement that deserves attention as it speaks volumes about some significant aspects of the handling of Israel's foreign policy.

To start with, until few days ago, Israeli policy makers competed with each other in describing the upcoming resolution as a "diplomatic Tsunami", "apocalypse now", and what not. Typical Israeli sense of the "entire world is against us", was at ample display, and in addition the internal in-fighting not just between government and opposition, but also within the government played a role in escalating and exaggerating the significance of the upcoming resolution.

Now, a dose of realism seems to have taken over the direction of Israel's reaction. This is so for three main reasons: first, any inclusion of a new member state in the UN requires a Security Council decision. Judging by President Obama's repeated statements, the US will object, and that means end of story. The General Assembly will have its automatic anti-Israel majority for a symbolic resolution, but Palestine will not be a member; second, at least 4 out of the 8 G-8 Forum states, the US, Canada, Germany and Italy are likely to vote no in the General Assembly, thus depriving this resolution from most of its actual significance; third, no UN decision regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict has ever been historic in reality, rather than in rhetoric, and that includes the Partition Resolution from 29 November 1947, that was blatantly violated by the Arab invasion to the newly-established state of Israel.

With that in mind, Netanyahu and his government have toned down their level of hysteria and are bracing themselves to what may happen in September at the UN, before and after. It is imperative for the Israelis not to throw in their lot completely with the US and their other allies. These allies do not share the Likud platform with Netanyahu and they want him to move. He can still do it -- he has to do it -- and he should remember that Abbas is still leaving a narrow opening for negotiations which, if opening soon, will lead the PA to postpone the suggested UN resolution.

The clock is ticking for Netanyahu, but also for Abbas. The Palestinians do not hold all the cards, and their leadership should be fully aware of the dangers of arousing emotions among the Palestinian population. The Palestinian street is buzzing with unrealistic expectations, which will not be fulfilled, surely not in the near future, and not as a result of the UN resolution.

The hangover can be very problematic, as violence can erupt and get out of control. This is not a pleasant prospect for the Israelis, but definitely also not one cherished by the PA. No one can predict how uncontrolled protest can deteriorate into all-out confrontation, which will jeopardize the two fastest growing economies of the Middle East: those of Israel and the PA.

Alongside the immediate protagonists, the US has also a role to play, and it is to go beyond the speeches to the stage of actual diplomacy, flexing the muscles it still retains and use them as a leverage on the Palestinians, not just the Israelis, in order to bring them to the table.

The specter of the impending September UN session can still be an incentive for a brave step by both Abbas and Netanyahu. In the absence of which, dark days may be ahead. They can still be averted.

 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 223
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Humanitari Leandro
03:22 PM on 06/02/2011
Giving the Palestinians title to the West Bank without first having them agree to ending the conflict and relinquishing their dream of flooding Israel with millions of descendants of the people who fled the Arab attacks of 1948-67 would just be a prescription for war. It would be like Gaza writ large. Obama is right, the only way to solve this is for both sides to negotiate.

Supporting the Palestinians' delusion that they can have a state without making concessions, doesn't do them any good. It just feeds their intransigence. They may not know it, but those promoting an end run to the UN, avoiding crucial negotiations, are really promoting the next war.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Freddie27
Liberal Gay Jewish Atheist
02:41 AM on 06/02/2011
September holds nothing more than the same Israeli occupation of Palestine and demonisation of the Palestinian people as terrorists.
05:12 AM on 06/02/2011
we have to change that Freddie . . BDS . . . . and Americans are going to have to take to the streets and protest
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
courtb
06:25 AM on 06/02/2011
Why? Americans don't even take to the street to protest for their own interests, why will they do that for Palestinians?
chinchilla
They say I need to write something here.
06:54 PM on 06/01/2011
Even Israel is admitting Resolution 377 is the Palestinian answer to a US VETO:

Foreign Minister Riad Malki says emergency session of the General Assembly known as 'Uniting for Peace' could override any veto en route to Palestinian statehood.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/palestinians-may-try-to-sidestep-u-s-veto-in-un-statehood-push-official-says-1.365376
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wisdo
semantics shamantics
06:52 AM on 06/02/2011
Did not know about that. Very good!
01:17 PM on 06/01/2011
The UN Cannot Deliver a Palestinian State, Too good, not to read from today's WSJ:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066504576347850275771310.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0
chinchilla
They say I need to write something here.
08:03 PM on 06/01/2011
Read the link I posted above your comment. Even the Israeli government is admitting that a US VETO will not stop a Palestinian state from being formed.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Marcus1
Trickledownscam
01:15 PM on 06/01/2011
For some strange reason , the entire world will hold a resolution against Israel. Some including Dr. Olmert have no idea why?
photo
nypoet22
Psychology Ph.D., Civics Teacher, Songwriter
01:05 PM on 06/01/2011
i'm quite sure i'm in the minority on this issue among israel's supporters, but i think a palestinian declaration of statehood would tend to be a good thing. along with the privileges of becoming a state come the responsibilities, including the responsibility for ending any non-government entities who attack civilians.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Freddie27
Liberal Gay Jewish Atheist
02:44 AM on 06/02/2011
Fanned. With statehood comes responsibilities.
05:13 AM on 06/02/2011
fanned mypoet . . .well said . . . .
photo
skialethia
αω vs military might
01:02 PM on 06/01/2011
Uh-oh! Hasbarists are hating this news!

"Coldplay endorses 'Freedom for Palestine"

http://www.haaretz.com/culture/coldplay-endorses-freedom-for-palestine-single-on-facebook-page-1.365351

Freedom for Palestine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V28HnPTYz-I

You can see by the vile hasbarist comments that this video is definitely POWERFUL!!

Hahahaha! I'm luving this bigtime!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
courtb
06:52 AM on 06/02/2011
Skia, loving a moment when someone else is anti-Israel?

I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!!

Silliness aside, I don't think Coldplay's endorsement has done much for it. It has just over 63,000 after being uploaded for over a week now. And yet videos uploaded after it have over ten times the views, such as a stupid skateboard stunt and a Rebecca Black parody. It's not even in the top 100 videos viewed today. So I think "Hasbarists (is that how you spell it?)" will be fine...
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kentah
know thyself
03:27 PM on 06/02/2011
That tends to happen. Multiple users have documented their individual videos' play counts being reduced and/or reset based on their content.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
givemtheirwish
Science is the belief in ignorance of "experts"
12:16 PM on 06/01/2011
http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/05/31/231581/schumer-falsely-claims-arabs/

Ooooops, Chucky Boy Schumer actually lets slip the truth about the Arab view of Israel's right to exist.

The Left isn't happy.........................
freddyflotilla
Gone fishin'
04:16 PM on 06/01/2011
There IS no OOOOOps here, as both the Hamas and PLO charters call for the extermination of Israel..that's a fact! The people voting for them must agree with that premise!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Ricardo
The white hat, Truth, Justices and theAmerican way
11:37 AM on 06/01/2011
"WE ARE UNARMED AND WE ARE SAILING"

Organizers of the U.S. Boat to Gaza announced today that they expect some 50 people will be aboard The Audacity of Hope when it joins the second "freedom flotilla" in late June to break the siege of Gaza.

The announcement came on the year's anniversary of the 2010 Israeli attack on unarmed passengers aboard the Mavi Marmara, killing nine, including an 18-year old U.S. citizen of Turkish descent.

Leslie Cagan, coordinator of the U.S. Boat to Gaza, said, "We are sailing-despite threats by the Israeli armed forces to use attack dogs and snipers against us-and despite frantic diplomatic pressure by the Israeli government to prevent other countries from allowing the flotilla to sail." She commented that while Egypt has just opened the Rafah border to Gaza, the maritime blockade and the Israeli siege of Gaza still exist.

Varied occupations are represented by the passengers, including retired film producer, student, author, nurse, EMT, firefighter and lawyer. More than half the participants are women.

Cagan said that inspections of the boat and its passengers prior to departure will prove the non-violent nature of the mission.

Richard Levy, attorney and passenger on The Audacity of Hope, explained that "Because Israel occupies Gaza, and accordingly has obligations under the Geneva Conventions, it cannot legally blockade Gaza." Therefore, he continued, "attempts by the Israeli government to prevent ships from going to Gaza are equally illegal."
06:34 AM on 06/02/2011
Every country has the right to defend her space and citizens from enemies that openly call for its destruction. If the flotilla is unarmed and not agressive they have nothing to worry about.
08:34 AM on 06/02/2011
100,000x fanned . . thank you
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Vinny123
11:23 AM on 06/01/2011
With all the hoopla regarding the Palestinians taking their case to the UN it will amount to nothing but a symbolic gesture unless they cease their attempts to evade meeting with the Israelis, in an attempt to avoid making any concessions or compromises. This is what they will be required to do if they wish to have a meaningful and viable "peace" agreement. Otherwise they are merely wasting the precious lives of their people with these devious and evasive political ploys and maneuvers that are leading to nowhere!
photo
tallen
panem et circenses
11:10 AM on 06/01/2011
Gaza City (DPA) – An explosion a military training camp in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday killed three members of the Palestinian Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) and wounded eight, first aid officials said.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_16425 63.php/Gaza-blast-kills-three-Palestinian-militants
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
11:30 AM on 06/01/2011
One of the risks of military training. Sometimes things blowup. Somehow I suspect you think they are not entitled to a military while Israel is.
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:59 PM on 06/01/2011
Yes, it's really a shame when terrorists blow themselves up instead of civilians.
11:09 AM on 06/01/2011
Why are we still pretending peace between to groups of people who don't believe the other is even a human being is realistic.Peace comes from respect,but both sides rather kill each others children.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wisdo
semantics shamantics
11:05 AM on 06/01/2011
THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT has reportedly approved a proposal to name a controversial new housing settlement, planned to be built along a main road connecting the Gaza and West Bank regions of Palestine, after US president Barack Obama.

The move is an apparent “gesture of deep gratitude” of Obama’s speech to the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Bulldozers moved into the area to clear the way for construction of the settlement within a day of Obama’s speech, the report says.

The report, citing Israeli radio broadcasts, also suggests that a consequence of the construction would mean that the Highway 1 route between the West Bank and Gaza would be essentially sealed off – severely limiting road access between the two Palestinian territories.

The construction of Israeli settlements within Palestinian territory is considered illegal by the UN’s International Court of Justice.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
erehwon2
11:46 AM on 06/01/2011
Oops. Your true goal is showing.

A road between the WB and Gaza is IN ISRAEL, not "within Palestinian territory." Unless, of course, you define as Palestinian territory all land between the Jordan River and the sea.
03:44 PM on 06/01/2011
......"A road between the WB and Gaza is IN ISRAEL"....

What you really mean is within stolen land. By Likud's definition, Israel expands from the Med to the Euphrates. It says so in the Old Testament, don't you know?

Anyone who believes that this parties' ambitions stop at West Bank or Jordan river needs to read a bit more.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wisdo
semantics shamantics
06:15 AM on 06/02/2011
THe point of this post is to point out the Sarcastic naming of an illegal settlement after our President - who opposes them, in order to give him a political black eye.

Do you think this is acceptable behaviour from a so-called Ally?
09:02 AM on 06/01/2011
Thank goodness for the internet. We can deciminate the information without the filter of propaganda, that has been foisted on the public for many, many years...and the truth shall set you free.
04:52 PM on 06/01/2011
Deciminate? = Reduce by 10% or spread widely?