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Dr. Reese Halter

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Missing Arctic Sea Ice: Wake-Up Call

Posted: 09/12/2011 5:28 pm

As a field biologist with more than a quarter of a century of experience, the unprecedented warming of our globe is disturbing to my very core. Having spent the first half of this year reading and writing for my upcoming book on the beleaguered state of our forests in western North America, the news on the wire over the weekend (September 10, 2011) by German researchers that the Arctic sea ice reached its lowest point since the start of satellite observations in 1972 is outright heartbreaking.

On September 8, 2011, the North Pole's ice cover shrank to 1.64 million square miles or about a half of a percent beneath the record low set in September 2007 according to the University of Bremen's Institute of Environmental Physics. Moreover, air temperatures were 2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average (compared to 1981 to 2010) over the Arctic at 3,300 feet above the surface. The feeble argument that the melt is accounted for by natural variability is clearly erroneous because we have reached an all-time low cover, furthermore the volume or thickness of sea ice is continuing to mirror that of the diminishing sea ice cover.

The real question is what does the leadership in Washington, DC intend to do with the latest scientific information? Science has played a significant role shaping every facet of our world, as we know it today. As a profession, we are rigorously trained to be cautious and meticulous. We are curious by nature and our business is knowledge. Knowledge is power. And it empowers us to take action when necessary.

In 2008 Wall Street received almost a trillion dollars yet today we are faced with an unacceptable unemployment of more than 14 million people who live on Main Street.

The most powerful and watched media corporation in the U.S. chooses daily to denigrate climate science. Interestingly, the same people enjoy their smart phones, i-tablets and flat-screen televisions -- all courtesy of ingenious scientific innovations.

If those same people who sneer at climate science were faced with a sick child and they sought medical advice from 100 doctors, I predict they would follow the consensus of the experts. Particularly if 97 or 98 out of 100 doctors told them their child were deathly ill and the steps necessary to save its life. The opinions of the two contrarian medical scientists would be dismissed.

Let's examine this same scenario only substitute "medical" scientist with "climate" scientist. Ninety-seven to ninety-eight percent of the 1,372 scientists polled in 2010 by Stanford University agree that humans are forcing Earth's climate by burning fossil fuels, releasing heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

It appears that the most powerful media empire and special interest groups like oil; gas and coal are hiding behind the intellectual wall of informed denial and social irresponsibility with respect to global warming.

NOAA has predicted that a cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has begun or the return of the La Nina. This is potentially disastrous for the southern half of the U.S. Texas is facing unparalleled drought damages estimated for 2011 in agriculture alone in excess of $7 billion. Thousands of buildings have burned and wildfire has scorched over 3.6 million acres in the past 12 months of record-breaking drought. The price of cotton, wheat and corn crops (to name just a few) are spiking. The cattle herd in the U.S. has been culled to a population now equal to that of the size of mid 1970s. Expect beef and all other commodities to continue to rise this fall and winter of 2012 at the supermarket.

It is very apparent that elevated temperatures are creating climate disruption. For example, Hurricane Irene caused $7.4 billion in damages and Tropical Storm Lee, seven days later, inflicted another couple billion in damages.

What exactly do the lawmakers intend on doing about future climate disruption? The people on Main Street want to work. So why not begin to plan for future climate disruption by creating millions of jobs that will protect our nation, reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and demonstrate to the world that the U.S. is taking a leadership role in fighting climate change. Incidentally, Australia has recently brought in a carbon tax and China is trialing a greenhouse gas reduction for six of its cities and 250 million people.

There are at least four areas where both white and blue collar jobs could be created:

Professor Steven Chu, Energy Secretary and Nobel Prize-winning physicist, is a proponent of mimicking the missing sea and land ice on Earth by making all roofs and pavement white (or at least light colored) to help reduce global warming by both conserving energy and reflecting the sunlight back into space. At least two million jobs could be created coast to coast from this endeavor. If every country followed America's lead it would be the equivalent of taking all the cars in the world off the road for 11 years.

The current drought in the South is causing at least 700 watermain breaks a day in Houston; and an antiquated water system throughout the U.S. that was initiated in the late 1800s, the 1920s and post WW II is leaking at least 7 billion gallons of water, daily. The American Society of Civil Engineers has graded the U.S. water infrastructure D- stating that the water mains are well beyond the designed span of 65 to 90 years.

Given that every climate model I've seen (over two dozen and counting) predicts more severe drought for the ensuing years and decades ahead it is incumbent that the lawmakers plan for a drier future and protect the citizens of our nation.

Stopping leaking water is no longer an option; it's a necessity. Furthermore, the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment.

There are at least two models that the lawmakers can immediately examine:

Las Vegas - strict water conservation has helped water consumption drop even as the population has ballooned, as the city has tough rules promoting water reuse.

New York - Mayor Bloomberg has spent $252 million on wireless meters that detect leaks four times a day, promoting green rooftops and other ground-breaking green infrastructure to capture rain water, reduce sewer overflows and save the city $2 billion over 20 years.

At least 4 million jobs to redo the aging water systems, protecting towns and cities across the United States could be created.

There are at least four million homeowners across the West who straddle the urban/wildland Ponderosa pine interface. This year alone Arizona and New Mexico have both recorded their largest single fires (Wallow and Las Conchas, respectively) since the inception of record keeping. Climate change has enable bark beetles to kill at least a billion trees across 40 million acres in the West (combination of drought which has weakened the trees and warmer winter temperatures enabling beetles to successfully overwinter and breed at historic levels).

A Smokey Bear fire policy has prevented wildfires for almost 100 years. This has allowed forests to create a huge food supply for the beetles, which otherwise would not be available, thus preventing them from reaching an epidemic.

One hundred and eighty million acres of Ponderosa pines spreading across America are overstocked due to fire suppression. Removing dead beetle-killed trees and restoring the Ponderosa pine forests by thinning them to a healthy stocking level of 100 years ago could easily create one million jobs. Our forests are the life force of the nation, providing fresh air and clean water - priceless ecosystem services.

According to the EPA ever day in the U.S. we dump approximately 690,000 tons of material into landfills. These landfills bleed toxicity in the form of heavy metals into underground water and release heat-trapping greenhouse gases like methane (23 times stronger at retaining heat than CO2) into the atmosphere.

Building thermal conversion landfills could create three million jobs coast to coast. These facilities are lined and sealed so no toxicity pollutes the ground water, and they are capped and slowly cooked using high pressure and temperature to break down toxic long-chained molecules. Moreover, by siphoning the methane from the process it is used to power the entire system. The thermal conversion process converts plastics, hospital wastes, diseased cattle, feedlot manure, bleached paper, yard waste, agricultural waste, forestry waste, cardboard, used tires, municipal solid waste, trash, sewage sludge and even anthrax into oil an non-toxic useful products including biogas. This process safeguards the environment for our children.

America excels in science, technology and engineering; it's time to roll up our sleeves and put Main Street back to work; show the rest of the world that the United States values the environment and is committed to reducing greenhouse gases, now!

Dr Reese Halter is an award-winning science communicator: voice for ecology and distinguished conservation biologist at California Lutheran University. His latest book is The Insatiable Bark Beetle. He can be contacted through Dr.Reese.com

 

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09:39 PM on 09/14/2011
The first step to solve the CO2 problem would be for the world to adopt a crash program to replace carbon-based energy with nuclear energy. The other alternative energy sources cannot supply the demand at this time. After buying some time to avoid the point of no return, then the world can shift to the other energy sources and replace nuclear energy. Also, the world has to change to a negative population growth scenario, as the zero population growth scenario is no longer sufficient to avoid reaching the point of no return.
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blazer7257
01:11 PM on 09/14/2011
Another effect if CLIMATE CHANGE !!

The reports of Arctic Sea Ice demise are greatly exagerated.

Looking at the current Arctic Sea Ice Extent shows that the ice is now GROWING again marking the end of the melt season (two weeks earlier than recent years and at about the same time as the 1979 to 2000 average. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_std

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

But even if the climate changed enough to have no summertime Arctic Sea Ice AND it was due to humans does anyone really think that the worldwide CO2 emissions is going to decline?t
PATOISJAM
reason: strategize: succeed
11:45 AM on 09/14/2011
Don't worry - it's evolution taking place. Besides I'm tired of being a stupid human so let's get to the next stop. Everybody please stop worrying about the ice melting, the wildfires, tsunami, earthquakes and pollution - the scientists have it all under control..
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MekhongKurt
09:54 AM on 09/14/2011
Dr. Halter, thank you for an excellent, spot-on, article. I just wished I had faith that the eyes that count would read (and understand it) -- and that the brains behind those eyes would reach the obvious conclusion that we dadgum well better get cracking. But I don't, not much, anyway.
FreeHat
Really?
08:35 PM on 09/13/2011
Bremen's team is the only one, out of six that are regarded as serious Arctic data sources, making this claim.

If your data starts 1979 then you don't have that many years to compare to. The truth is, people are erring on the side of caution whilst claiming grant money.
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MekhongKurt
09:52 AM on 09/14/2011
I was sort of with you -- until the last four words of your comment. The tired old red herring of "grant money."

Are you really so uninformed or uneducated not to understand that no working person, except volunteers with other means of support, for FREE? And that a "working person" is sometimes a SCIENTIST? If you work in, let's say, an office, don't you get paid? Doesn't your company give you "grant money" in the form of an office or some form of work space, a desk or table, a computer, telephone, supplies, administrative support, etc. etc. etc.? You think scientists are all a bunch of conniving thieves just because they actually expect to have the tools they need to do their jobs AND to make some money to put food on the table while they're at it?

Bet you don't badmouth the scientists who developed the medicines, techniques, equipment, to heal or repair you when you're sick or injured -- do you? Or the scientists who developed the technology for the computer for you to attack them. (Yes, computer scientists get research grants, too.) Or the scientists who helped developed air-conditioners, heating systems, automotive transport, railroads, telephones, traines, modern ships, and on and on and on -- do you?

Wait -- on second thought, don't answer that.

Jeez . . .
04:11 PM on 09/13/2011
there are 3 kilometers of ice missing from southern Lake Michigan !!!! Where are the polar bears? The U.N.must act.There should be a global tax to fund the scientific community with the goal of restoring the ice sheet,whatever the cost.
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KarlaElisa
The atmosphere is Toxic
11:31 AM on 09/13/2011
Outstanding article, Dr. Halter.

"...the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment." Until people get this through their heads and actually accept this is the way it is, I fear we're left in the hands of the powerful bent on maintaining the status quo. Big Energy and Big Agriculture and Big everything will resist all change that would upset their current methods for making money because money trumps the environment if your a corporation.

This article should be on the front page. It should overshadow the 2012 election and every other mind numbing article they float out there. We're way behind in what needs to be done to prevent a global disaster.
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blazer7257
11:21 AM on 09/13/2011
pssst Arctic Ice has started to increas already this year (two weeks earlier than in recent years) according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center website: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png don't tell noboby though....
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Jim Milks
Ecologist
02:14 PM on 09/13/2011
Don't crow yet. It will take a couple of weeks to tell if that growth is real or a blip. Even if it's real, it still doesn't overshadow the fact that Arctic ice is melting at a fairly rapid rate. At the very least, this year will be the second all-time low in ice extent. At most, it may set the record (not all scientists agree that the record low has been broken. See http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm). I'll be more interested in seeing the ice volume measurement, as 2010 set the all-time low for ice volume. If 2011 breaks the volume record, then we're looking at far thinner ice in the Arctic, which will be more susceptible to melting in coming years.
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blazer7257
02:57 PM on 09/13/2011
Second all time low ? ALL TIME? only since 1979 or 1972 depending on which stats one looks at...

Funny how 2008 2009 and 2010 all had more ice than 2007 but that increase was not widely published... Also funny how the increase in Antarctic Sea Ice extent is overlooked:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
03:23 PM on 09/13/2011
It's a hockey stick! It's a hockey stick! you call. I thought you guys didn't believe in that?

One swallow does not make a winter, and when the clear water extent pushes a record distance north, the darkening days have a greater effect on the formation of ice in the far north than at the normal more southerly limit of the sea ice's extent. More physics for ya.
FreeHat
Really?
08:39 PM on 09/13/2011
A one decade trend in Arctic ice loss doesn't mean much either. Or if a decade mattered very much in your view, then you must be very confused by the lack of accelerated warming since 1998.
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Doug Brockman
09:58 PM on 09/12/2011
Haven't been up to the Arctic lately. Something tells me it's still plenty cold up there. Don't try cuddling up with those cute white bears though, they get mighty hungry.
07:00 PM on 09/12/2011
Great Piece.

"The real question is what does the leadership in Washington, DC intend to do with the latest scientific information? "

Seeing as our leadership in washington isn't even able to overcome that media empire's propaganda to address our immediate economy It seems safe to say the future of the world is in the hands of china and how fast they commercialize and sell green technology to the developing world.

Seeing as in so doing they will remove the US navy's stranglehold on oil energy imports to these nations as well as their own there is some room to be hopeful as china could use such a policy and strategy to clearly displace the US as the only global superpower.
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whirlpool
founder walnut tree congregation
06:12 PM on 09/12/2011
All good ideas. Environmental restoration is where the work is since consumer markets are saturated. The problem is getting the money to where the work needs are. See the book Capitalism 3.0 by Peter Barnes for answers to this question. Alas the nation does not have the intellectual, moral or ethical chops to do what is needed.
06:47 PM on 09/12/2011
Whirlpool,

I hope that you are wrong, and fear that you are right.

But like the good Dr. Reese, we must try...

Sustainable Land Development Goes Carbon Negative
http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/09/sldi-project-carbon-negative/

If we’re serious about halting the rise of – and eventually lowering – CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, biochar could prove the best way. It also allows us to more sustainably manage organic waste from municipalities, croplands, wastewater treatment plants, and a certain amount of residues from forests. The problem, as with all other climate-mitigation approaches, comes with reaching scale. Can biochar be produced to a large enough scale to make a measurable impact? The answer lies in the triple-bottom-line perspective. In other words, the only way this will happen is if it can be produced in ways that meet the needs of people, planet and profit...

Sustainable Land Development Initiative
http://www.triplepundit.com/author/sldi/