Last week, I received yet another vitriolic e-mail chiding me for speaking and writing about global warming when northeastern United States was under feet of snow in addition to unseasonably cold temperatures. So how can a warming world, especially in the mid latitudes, be experiencing such intense periods of deep-freezes?
Perhaps it may best be summed up by a quote from Dr. Jane Lubchenco, the undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator: "Whatever is going to happen in the rest of the world happens first, and to the greatest extent, in the Arctic."
On MSNBCs Countdown in late December of 2010, I used the analogy of the Arctic being likened to the freezer on a kitchen refrigerator. If the door of the freezer is left open, cold air spills out, and at the same time the refrigerator motor warms up as cold air pours into the house.
In many ways that's exactly what's happening, now bringing governors of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee to declare emergencies and cancel schools and college classes as sleet, ice and at least several inches of snow, in some places as much as 9 inches of snow, blanket the southeast of the U.S. In fact, the weather service has posted winter storm warnings from east Texas to the Carolinas.
The real story here is what's going wrong in the Arctic. But before I address that, consider the following: The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest since standard records began in 1910. The World Meteorological Organization, based on data collected from 189 countries and territories, shows that the year 2010 to the end of October was the warmest since instrumental, continuous climate records began in 1850. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies says that the temperatures across the planet between December 1, 2009, and November 30, 2010, rank 2010 as the hottest on record.
In fact, five cities in northeastern United States broke their own records of all-time hottest year in 2010, according to statistics released by the Northeastern Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. Boston had the highest average temperature since the inception of record keeping began in 1872 and the year of The Great Fire. The other four cities were: Providence, R.I., Hartford, Conn., Concord, N.H., and Caribou, Maine.
Now let's go back and take a much closer look at what's going on in the Arctic, because it's thawing at an alarming rate.
In September, the Arctic ice cover was the third smallest ever recorded since 1979, about 1.78 million square miles. It was missing an area over 815,000 square miles of ice (the equivalent of Alaska plus most of California) compared to the 30-year average.
Thirty years ago there were over 386,000 square miles of Arctic ice that was older than five years. This September, there were only 22,000 square miles of five-year-old, thicker ice remaining. In a matter of just three decades, we are missing 97 percent of older, thicker ice.
Ice in the Arctic and around the globe is important for a number of reasons. Primarily, it helps reflect incoming solar radiation keeping our planet within a habitable range for humankind.
Last Monday, a colleague of mine called and informed me that it was raining in Iqaluit, the capital city of Nunavut, the Inuit territory of far northeastern Canada (latitude 63 degrees). On January 4, 2011, the temperatures around South Baffin Island reached record highs, as much as 40 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. I was utterly speechless.
The heat that is being stored-up in the ice-free Arctic Ocean, which is about 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, is getting pumped into the atmosphere. A vast area of the eastern Arctic waterways is ice-free; Frobisher Bay has not yet frozen over entirely, nor has Davis Strait. By the end of November, at least half of Hudson's Bay is normally frozen-over; in early January, 2011, only 17 percent is frozen.
The latent heat being pumped into the air is continuing to fuel the Arctic heat wave and clearly impeding the freeze-up of Hudson's Bay and Davis Strait. The amount of ice missing in December of 2010 equals the area of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Nevada combined.
Without that Arctic ice, the Polar Jet Stream, which normally moves from west to east, has begun like our open refrigerator, freezer door to spill polar air as far south as Texas and Florida. It's also swamping Southern California with more than twice the normal precipitation, apparently overriding the otherwise very dry, and this year particularly strong, Pacific La Nina weather pattern.
The human and monetary costs of the epic December blizzard in New York City, or the sleet and snow storm that cancelled more than 2,000 flights at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, the world's busiest airport, continue to escalate.
One of the real concerns of a warming world is the effect of wild weather on our food crops. Three deep-freezes in Florida in 2010 (one in January and two in December) are biting hard into the $9B citrus and $2B sugar farms across the state. Gov. Charlie Crist has declared an emergency disaster in 35 counties. Almost 50 percent of this year's sugar crop has yet to be harvested or over 850,000 tons of sugar has not come off the fields.
For every problem there are at least three solutions. The indecisive actions of the lawmakers in Washington, DC must come to an end. It is unacceptable that some lawmakers refuse to acknowledge climate change; and that the human-induced, increased levels of temperature-trapping greenhouse gases are forcing our climate to more extremes.
The Arctic is melting, rapidly. The time for a greenhouse gas cap is now.
Dr Reese Halter is a Science Communicator: Voice for Ecology, conservation biologist at Cal Lutheran University, public speaker and the author of Wild Weather. Contact him through www.DrReese.com
Follow Dr. Reese Halter on Twitter: www.twitter.com/DrReeseHalter
Just food for thought!
Updated 12:20 04 May 2010 by Stuart Clark
BRACE yourself for more winters like the last one, northern Europe. Freezing conditions could become more likely: winter temperatures may even plummet to depths last seen at the end of the 17th century, a time known as the Little Ice Age. That's the message from a new study that identifies a compelling link between solar activity and winter temperatures in northern Europe.
The research finds that low solar activity promotes the formation of giant kinks in the jet stream. These kinks can block warm westerly winds from reaching Europe, while allowing in winds from Arctic Siberia. When this happens in winter, northern Europe freezes, even though other, comparable regions of the globe may be experiencing unusually mild conditions.
Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading in the UK began his investigation because these past two relatively cold British winters coincided with a lapse in the sun's activity.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627564.800-quiet-sun-puts-europe-on-ice.html
The little recognized threat of solar flares is real and can attract broad support once understood.
See Green Light and other articles on: www.aesopinstitute.org for an outline of the potential problem and a few surprising ways it might be addressed.
We are at the edge of both a climate disaster and a new age of low-cost, decentralized energy.
If we are quick enough to accelerate radically new science and technology, there is still time to avoid the worst.
The technology is out-of-the-box and needs independent laboratory validation before it will gain acceptance by most scientists.
But, with strong support, cost-competitive new energy products that provide electricity could begin to enter the market in 2011.
Ironically, a truly adequate initiative to maximize the probability of that prospect could provide large numbers of jobs and help revive the economy.
The difficult is sometimes done immediately. The seemingly impossible may surprise many skeptics and take just a little longer.
Work emerging from laboratories all over the planet suggests that will prove accurate.
Cost-competitive alternatives will be the most realistic way to end the need for carbon fuels.
Why not see that they do!
With a determined effort, future cars can become power plants when parked, selling electricity to pay for themselves.
The Brooklyn Project, on the Aesop Institute website, is intended to inform the public about new ways to accelerate urgently needed changes.
Sustainable Land Development Goes Carbon Negative
http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/09/sldi-project-carbon-negative/
Charismatic Carbon-Offset Projects
http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/01/charismatic-carbon-offset-projects-benefits/
1) satellite measurements of the extent every September for the past 30 years: http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20101004_Figure7.mov
2) graph of the extent every December for the past 30 years: http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20110105_Figure3.png
Less ice cover means more less light reflected and more heat absorbed by the planet.
The Arctic is the air conditioner of the planet- but that is rapidly changing- and it is quickly altering the weather patterns on the planet. That 2009 tied 2005 as the warmest year augers more problems in the arctic and Greenland.
A fridge is a heat generating device.
It heats up a room.
Opening the freezer doesn't cool the room.
Your analogies are very poor.
The patch of floor in front of the open fridge is cooling, while the interior of the fridge, and the whole room are indeed warming.
I look forward to hearing more from one of the top eight jones next time please.
Why bother arguing with science illiterates before the first great global warming milestone is reached ?
Let them entertain their ignorant fantasies until reality crushes them - careful arguments are not welcome in "denier" heads.
when is that exactly?
2008 was going to be ice free because all the new ice was going to melt. Ice extent grew.
then 2009 was going to be ice free because of the 2 year old ice. Ice extent grew.
Now the problem is 5 year old ice!
The area of thick arctic ice has doubled in the last 2 years.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/pips2_thick/current.gif
http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
http://www.arsc.edu/challenges/2008/ice_cover.html
PIPS 2.0 (Polar Ice Prediction System 2.0) is just a 1980's/1990's model running on a PC.
All IPCC models project decreased snowfall for Nth America in a warming climate.
IPCC AR4
11.5.3.5
Nth America climate projections
The ensemble mean of the MMD models projects a general decrease in snow depth
Can you explain why Northern Europe is experiencing floods from snowmelt in January?
AGW theory projects less snow in Nth America, not more.
No amount of twisted fridge physics can change that.
Likewise for Europe.
IPCC AR4
11.3.3 Climate Projections
"In this century, (european) warming is projected to continue at a rate somewhat greater than its global mean"
"The warming in northern europe is expected to be largest in winter".
"all climate simulations show warming in Great Britain and continental Europe"
No cooling trend. Ever. Under any circumstances.
The ensemble mean of the MMD models projects a general decrease in snow depth (Chapter 10) as a result of delayed autumn snowfall and earlier spring snowmelt. In some regions where winter precipitation is projected to increase, the increased snowfall can more than make up for the shorter snow season and yield increased snow accumulation.
Ch 10
"As the climate warms, snow cover and sea ice extent decrease"
2010 was the second largest snow extent on record.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1