After what has seemed like an interminable campaign purgatory, the Pennsylvania primary is finally only four days away. Despite suggestion to the contrary, Barack Obama is all but guaranteed a victory.
Obama may well pull an upset. Since Texas and Ohio, the Clinton campaign has focused their message primarily on a superdelegate strategy. That strategy has included arguing that Obama is unelectable, suggesting he is out-of-touch and elitist, and criticizing him repeatedly for innocent associations with guilty people. The problem of course is that her argument to the superdelegates is not the most advisable to pitch to Democratic primary voters. It is not a coincidence that she sounds awfully similar to John McCain when she speaks. The rationale for her receiving the nomination without earning it is premised on the notion that Obama would not be able to stand up to Republican attacks. As such, she has peppered him with those attacks.
But such attacks are distinctly Republican for a reason, namely that they resonate significantly better with the Republican base than with Democrats. The left is unlikely to be swayed by Reverend Wright or Bill Ayers, and unlikely to find something especially disturbing about comments made at a San Francisco fundraiser. They are, after all, Democrats. It is not surprising, then, that we have seen no decline in Obama's poll numbers among those voters currently in play.
It is not just the attacks themselves that have failed, but also the act and manner in which they have been carried out. For at least a month now, the accepted media narrative is that Hillary's likelihood of winning is incredibly slim and that, absent something unforeseeable, Barack Obama will prevail. Even among those still undecided, watching Hillary Clinton beating up on the likely Democratic nominee is unsettling. Polls have consistently shown her negatives shooting up. More than half of Democrats say they don't trust her.
Of course, despite all of this, Hillary still leads in the state, and may pull off a win. A win for her, however, is still a significant victory for Obama. Despite having broken all campaign spending records in the state and despite having dramatically cut Hillary Clinton's lead, the narrative has yet to change. It is still the case that the Clinton campaign and surrogates are predicting a substantial victory. It is still the case that most pundits and opinion makers have come to expect one, as well. And with Obama's subpar debate performance and two mini-crises boiling to the surface in the final days of the campaign, it would appear expectations for Obama are nearly impossibly low. To meet or exceed those expectations would require almost nothing at all.
But whether those expectations are exceeded with a five point loss or met with a double-digit defeat, that Pennsylvania is over means the clouds of uncertainty that engulf the race will begin to clear. There is, indeed, a new kind of inevitability on the horizon. Whether he wins on Tuesday or not, Barack Obama cannot lose.
"Obama the Great" in 08'
It's commentary. It's op-ed.
I proudly support Obama.
I have yet to see a poll with Obama above 42%, even the one in which he is leading... I am afraid that Obama may have a ceiling in PN. There are also a high number of undecideds that I have a feeling will end up going with Clinton, as undecideds seem to revert back to the safest bet once the enter the polling booth.
My prediction is a 9 to 13 point victory for Sen Clinton.. unfortunately
My god! Haven't supporters and pundits learned ANYTHING? Just state where it stands today - he is behind in the polls. Don't predict a possible win for Obama!
The reason is, should Clinton win PA (like she has ALWAYS been expected to) - she will point to articles and commentary like this one saying "They said we were going to lose - well, the people of PA stood up and their voice was heard, Thank you for the Victory, my friends in Pennsylvania!!!"
This is what happened in Texas and Ohio - two states Clinton was expected to win even 2 weeks out ... and then pundits and commentators starting spreading the hype of an Obama upset. Same thing in NH.
If you all would have just been reasonable - The Clinton machine would have been out of gas already - but it is raising expectations by stuff like this that has kept it going.
Why wouldn't Obama be outspending not only Clinton (whom he has trailed in the state significantly and whom he has outfundraised significantly) but every candidate ever (who have never fundraised like his campaign has been able to)?
Has Pennsylvania's primary ever mattered this much to decide the outcome of a primary (and been such a divisive primary)?
Has there ever been a campaign in history where there were so many media and information outlets to cover? So many different ways to try and get your message out to people?
Since no other candidate in history has raised as much funding as BO, why would it surprise people that he's outspending them (the insinuation here is that if past candidates, or even current candidates, had raised money like BO, they would have spent it just as easily)?
Why would spending comparisons to the general election matter when clearly nobody is going to be able to spend a majority of their resources on just one state?
You don't think Hillary would spend it if she had it?
Yes *WE* Can!
I think that the main push in PN is to counter Clinton's ability to close the popular vote gap. PN is the last big state with a big Clitnon advantage. If she wants to make a serious argument to the supers, she needs the popular vote.. Obama is spending to depress Clinton's turnout and narrow the gap, in this last chance for Clinton to gain a substantive argument for her candidacy.
PA voters are going to put an end to it. With even a 1 point victory for Obama, it will be clear that it's time for Hillary to throw in the towel. We should welcome Hillary and her supporters - our tent's big enough for all of them, and there are plenty of seats left at the table.
I saw the debate, and I'd like to go on the record (for all six people who read this) as finding his performance outstanding.
I loved his answer about how the president sets the mission in Iraq, when they finally got around to asking substantive questions that is.
But, I guess being honorable is somehow viewed as weak in our combative culture. To me, it was a breathe of fresh air in the midst of the Steph/Gibson shitfumes..
I live in PA. While you're correct that the middle of the state's demographics are like Ohio's, the counties surrounding Philadelphia are filled with highly educated people, ie Obama supporters. Also, we've seen dramatic increases in new voter registrations as well as R's switching to D's to vote in this primary. I think that will work in Obama's favor. So, yes, she'll win the middle of the state, but will do poorly in southeast PA (where much of the population is) so her winning the whole state will not be "easy."