Can McKinney Really Hurt Obama?

In June, former Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney publicly hailed Barack Obama's grab of the Democratic presidential nomination. But praising his fete is one thing, trying to beat him out of the presidency is another. And that's her goal as the Green Party's presidential nominee. While it stirred barely a yawn in Democratic Party circles, it stirred speculation whether McKinney can do any real damage to Obama.

At first glance there's no reason to think that she can hurt him. She's not one-time Green Party top candidate Ralph Nader. His credentials in 2000 as a fierce environmental and consumer crusader were impeccable. This earned him the respect and admiration of thousands of impassioned supporters, the ability to tap liberal and progressive money tills, and the grudging respect from some corporate and government officials. He was rarely out of the media eye for years.

Even now the debate still rages whether the votes he got in 2000 actually sunk Democratic presidential contender Al Gore or not. The certainty is that a bigger percent of Nader's votes would have gone to Gore and not Bush if he hadn't been in the race. That could have sealed Florida and the White House for Gore. We'll never know for sure but nearly a decade later many Democrats still blame Nader for Bush.

By contrast McKinney was a six term congresswoman who is still mostly remembered for her shoot from the lip quips, and for creating a ruckus with a capital police officer. She had the ignominious distinction of being bounced from her Congressional seat by an obscure county official.

But this doesn't mean that McKinney can't toss a curve at Obama. She's got energy, charisma, has name recognition and is on the ballot in thirty six states, a handful of them are crucial swing states that Obama and McCain will wage war to win. She is the first black Green Party presidential candidate, and she and her VP pick Rosa Clemente are the first two black women to ever head a political ticket (Clemente is Afro-Puerto Rican). She trudged the campaign highway through thirty states building an organization, drumming up financial support, and lambasting Bush's policies. Then there's the murky, dirty side of politics. Some Republican-affiliated independent committees might be tempted to dump some dollars into her campaign in the swing states to wreak havoc on Obama. That happened in 2004 when Republican donors kicked in cash to Al Sharpton's truncated bid for the Democratic presidential nod. The aim was to create havoc, confusion and division among black voters.

Then there's Rush Limbaugh's windy boast that he launched Operation Choas in the Democratic primaries in the swing states. He implored Republicans to back Clinton to subvert Obama. With McKinney, such a dirty political trick would be to siphon off votes from those progressives and blacks disenchanted with the Democrats and Obama. Even without the dirty tactics, an Obama scandal, a damning revelation, a gaffe, or more flips, reversals, and shifts by him to the right could sour more left side Democrats and Independents on him.

The best thing McKinney has going for her, though, is her 10 point manifesto. This is a free swinging, unabashed anti-war, universal health care, anti corporate, pro-environment and civil liberties and full employment pitch. This could touch a nerve with some voters who express disgust that the gap between Obama and McCain in their positions on issues from Iraq to the economy at times seem paper thin. It could stir some voters fed up with the top heavy parade of corporate officials, lobbyists, and Beltway establishment politicians that dominate Obama and McCain's campaigns to cast a protest ballot for her.

The tantalizing possibility that McKinney might pull two to three percent of the vote nationally is more than a wild stretch. In a close to the wire contest between Obama and McCain this could be just enough to cause the Obama camp jitters as Nader did with Democrats in 2000.

McKinney can sweeten the pot for left side Democrats who may have some qualms about Obama, but are scared stiff of a McCain White House. She can quietly put the word out as some Green Party strategists did in 2000 that disenchanted Democrats in locked down Democrat states have the luxury of voting their conscience with a vote for McKinney. This poses absolutely no risk to Obama's chances of winning their state. But in the swing states, a McKinney vote could pose a risk to Obama. The message then is: Take a deep breath, exhale, and then punch the ticket for Obama. The absolute last thing that McKinney should want is to carry the odious tag of spoiler. Nader, rightly or wrongly, will carry that tag to the end of his days.

The odds are that in this hyper-charged, history making election with much on the line for both parties McKinney's impact and presence will be negligible. But thank goodness for her presence anyway.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).

Comments

[ProudLiberalDan]

Well, I live in a "safe" state, so I am considering a vote for McKinney depending on how much Obama triangulates.

We need a direct popular vote with a runoff election, either two-round a la France/Brazil or ranked-choice a la Ireland/Australia. This way everyone can vote for their first choice without fear of seeing their last choice elected.

But no one, not Obama nor McCain nor any other candidate is "entitled" to someone's vote that they can triangulate against and take for granted. If Obama doesn't offer enough to progressives and if McCain doesn't offer enough to conservatives and other candidates receive votes, that's the fault of Obama and McCain.

[Rockerbabe]

Both Cynthia McKinney and Denise Majette were soundly defeated in Dekalb County, GA. when they sought reelection to office. McKinney because she failed to represent her district properly and embarrased the district greatly with regard to unfounded allegations towards VP Al Gore. She lost out to other non-white candidates.
Ms Majette, who originally took the seat away from McKinney, failed in her attempt to become the next US Senator from Georgia - poor financed and organized campaign. If she would have sought reelection in the US House of Rep, she probably would be been sent back, but she sought "promotion" at a time that was not right and she was ill-prepared for the bruising campaign. I doubt that McKinney will be taken seriously here in GA, especially with Obama heading the Dem's ticket.

[morninmist]

Denials are dangerous.---putting your head in the sad is weak.

The PUMA's are rising.

[mindlessmissy]

NO !

[JennyJay]

A vote for McKinney is a vote for McCain - pretty simple equation going on there.
We Democrats have been that stupid in the past, so I guess it 's possible again.

[Marlyn]

No difference between Republicans and Democrats, so it doesn't matter.

[JohnFromCensornati]

You mean by nominating yet another triangulator?

[Tropiholic]

doesn't she need funding? where is that going to come from?

[joebiz]

Never underestimate the power of a third-party.

However, in the last presidential election all third parties (Independent, Reform, Libertarian, Constitutional, and Green) received less than 1 percent of the total vote and no electoral votes. Typically these parties are what haute couture is to fashion overall, they are more avant guard in terms of issues. They can influence, tilt, and or shift internal policy in national conventions Meaning they can either move left or right in relation to Dem or Repub platforms. My guess is that in this highly contested presidential election, like in 2000 and 2004, the electorate polarizes in either camp.

Third parties should be given more air time. Afterall, votes are out there for the taking, Greens can spoil or Dems can spoil it for the Greens.

[chronic]

Gawd, Democrats are thier worst enemy!!

[rosal]

If McLame wins, thank this crowd. And when McLame starts another war, and sends your children to fight it, thank this crowd and the people that voted for them. If you can handle your conscience with this, and another four years of Woosh's policies, go ahead.

[JohnFromCensornati]

When Obama was promising to vote for the FISA bill, all the bots said that he didn't need "this crowd".
Now, we're to blame if he loses?
I don't think so.

[Zeje]

And the Democrats in Congress will O.K. every action President McCain wants.

[morninmist]

ah, I see you channel Cheney--nothing by Fear attacks.

[PumaAnn]

I'm considering McKinney. She's more progressive. She's not Democrat.

This year......that about fits the bill for me.

[closetodemfection]

There are many HRC voters who are considering her. Myself included.

[grumpygranny66]

This is suppose to be a free country so far therefore, you are free to vote for whomever you choose.

[StillIRise]

Good for you!

[morninmist]

YES.

~~~ RISE PUMA'S RISE~~

[truthskr]

Proof that some HRC voters never get tired of being wrong, or losing. But I definitely think that you should do it. She deserves some supporters and I'd hate for McKinney not to be able to even fill the Best Western ballroom for her concession speech.

[Faith101]

She won't hurt Obama. She might be known in GA, but that's about it.

[grumpygranny66]

She has no clout here in GA, and she is not well liked......She is no threat......

[TheRebel82]

Mckinney has about as much a chance of winning as Hillary Clinton. Meaning Nil...nada..zero.

[JohnFromCensornati]

She knows that and so does the Green Party.
That's hardly the point.
The Dims and the Greedy Old Predators make the rules that prevent third party candidates from having a chance.

[Retrofuturistic]

I admire her for advocating impeachment.

[nippersdad]

Hooray! More columns on real Progressives, please.

By showing how truly plugged into the Washington country club set Obama really is, he, himself, will ensure that the Greens and Nader will get a second look this cycle. I was fully prepared to vote for the lesser of two evils candidate until the FISA vote. I cannot in good conscience vote for anyone who has telegraphed his willingness to violate his oath of Office before he even gets the job; not to mention the oath of office that he swore when he went into the Senate.

And, this time, there can be no bitching about being a third Party "spoiler" insofar as Obama himself has given us permission to vote for someone else. Can you say dealbreaker? Could that have been Obama's "bring 'em on" moment? We shall see.

[jackie4444]

"I was fully prepared to vote for the lesser of two evils candidate until the FISA vote. I cannot in
good conscience vote for anyone who has telegraphed his willingness to violate his oath of Office before he even gets the job; not to mention the oath of office that he swore when he went into the Senate."

Perfectly stated, nipper. Many of us feel exactly that way. In terms of issues, McKinney certainly bests any of the rest of the field. And the woman is FEARLESS in what she's willing to talk about.
That's of course at once her most appealing characteristic and the one most likely to interfere
with her getting elected. But the important thing is she's ALWAYS been willing to speak out,
so no one can FAIRLY claim that she is just pandering for the campaign, as appears to have
been the case with Obama. If you're a fan of JFK's "Profiles", reading the section on Taft kind of brings McKinney to mind.

[JohnFromCensornati]

The faith-based initiative was my deal-breaker.
FISA was the icing on the cake.

[nippersdad]

That one is kind of hard for me. Churches do many good things and many (if not most) do not make an issue of prosyletizing the recipients of their largesse. But, I have to agree with you, this really is yet another crack in the wall between church and state.

If the state no longer wishes to be in the busines of addressing the needs of the less fortunate, there are better ways of saying so than an incrementalist privatization of social services into the hands of those religionistas who will take the utmost advantage of the national treasury. If we are going to go that route, there needs to be a line in the sand which, once crossed, will automatically lift the tax exempt status of the offenders. Most of the usual suspects should already have had their tax exempt status lifted due to the obvious political nature of their ministries anyway, in my view.

Unfortunately, politicians make bad gardeners. One often cannot see the the flowers for the weeds which have been allowed to run riot.

[morninmist]

Yes, it is great to see the Real Progressives get some attention on Huff Post.

I do not consider Obama and his blogger websites such as Democratic Underground (aka ObamaNation) and Kos as Progressive at all.