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Earl Ofari Hutchinson

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Cain May Not Be a Flash in the Pan

Posted: 10/31/11 01:24 PM ET

GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain's win in the Iowa straw poll is more disturbing proof that his candidacy may not be the flash in the pan that many think. Cain added to his string of straw polls wins by barely nudging out presumptive GOP presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney in the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll. The poll, which has measured the GOP and Democratic caucus candidate preferences of Iowa voters since the 1980s, has proven credible and is carefully watched by political observers. It was the only poll to show that then Democratic presidential contender Obama had a substantial lead over party rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.

But the far more intriguing thing about Cain's candidacy is the consistency of the poll numbers. He has been either at the top or near the top as a favorite among GOP voters for weeks. He has not been the proverbial flash in the pan that recent GOP presidential candidates have been. That is, the candidates burst on the scene, announce their candidacy with much fanfare, get a blast of media attention, create a momentary public buzz, and then fade quickly into the sunset. That pattern has been plainly evident in the candidacies of Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry. They announced their candidacies with much fanfare, got a quick surge, and then when they make the inevitable gaffes, inanities, and goofball pronouncements, set against the intense glare of the media, they fade faster than the sun in an Arctic night.

But Cain hasn't. The reasons go beyond just the media and GOP voter fascination with the novelty of an African-American conservative tossing out pithy and in some cases, outrageously quotable sound bites. Cain is politically serviceable in several ways. He is the runaway pick of GOP ultra conservatives and Tea Party leaders and followers. This appears to refute the knock that they are nothing more than a pack of unreconstructed bigots that can't stomach the thought of a black man in the White House. He is an outsider. The maverick, politically unconnected, noble citizen politician always grabs media and public fascination. It's even more appealing at a time when much of the public loathes and abhors most politicians, and regards Congress somewhere between a used car salesman and a dentist. Cain has played hard on that loathing and disgust and never tires of reminding that he is not a politician, has held no office, and will manage government as if it was a corporation, and bring good business sense, management and efficiency to solve all problems. The notion of the man on the white horse riding into Washington, turning government on its head and chasing the army of corporate and fat cat lobbyists, flaks, and deal makers packing from the political temple in mad flight played well in 2008 with the Obama candidacy. It worked, and Cain took obvious note. Cain's adroit stoke of the basest of social conservative rage on immigration, abortion, religion, gun ownership, and most importantly, primitive laissez faire shred of the safety net and bare bones federal government has aroused their passions to a fever pitch.

Cain's added value is that he's the most effective among the pack of GOP presidential contenders in posing as the ABR (that's anybody but Romney) alternative. The Iowa poll reconfirmed that Romney has what's charitably called "serious vulnerabilities" meaning that ultra conservative don't like him and what they perceive he represents. These are the voters that are the most likely to vote in the official Iowa GOP Caucus in January and they say that they are three times more likely to back Cain over Romney. As a side note, with Perry fumbling and bumbling on the campaign trail and with his ultra-conservative credentials slightly frayed or at best suspect, Cain even has value as the anti-Perry Christian conservative surrogate.

GOP mainstream leaders, hard-nosed GOP political operatives, and the big gun financial donors have so far treated the Cain candidacy as a fun and games, amusing sideshow act that will fade into the dust when it comes time for the serious voting. That may well prove to be the case. Cain certainly has shown very little interest in doing the hard politicking in the key early make or break primary states, has raised a relative bare pittance of campaign monies, and has no national organization to speak of. But at this stage of the political game, that's less important than revving up a disjointed, disgruntled, and dismayed GOP party faithful. Cain is the right guy for that. And that alone guarantees him a lot more shelf life than people think or want to believe he has.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on American Urban Radio Network. He is the author How Obama Governed: The Year of Crisis and Challenge. He is an associate editor of New America Media. He is host of the weekly Hutchinson Report Newsmaker Hour on KTYM Radio Los Angeles streamed on ktym.com podcast on blogtalkradio.com and broadcast on thehutchinsonreportnews.com

 

Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: www.twitter.com/earlhutchinson

 
 
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08:13 PM on 11/01/2011
As a black person I have a few shocking things to say. I've said this in a few posts...Cain will not be the GOP nominee. America has finally realized that the "black experiment" of 2008 was a total disaster. Don't listen to the media, they would want nothing more than a black vs black presidential race but it will not happen. The election is a year away, a lot will change. Cain might be up in some polls but it will not last, trust me. Romney will be the likely GOP nominee and will beat Obama in 2012. Like I said before, even if (and that is a very big if) beats the GOP nominee, the Republicans will gain a majority in the Senate and thus control both houses of Congress. Obama would be a lame duck president for the next 4 years. All his huge spending programs will never become law because it will never be passed by Congress.
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gr8bsn
An equal opportunity offender since 1978
07:29 AM on 11/01/2011
This early in an election cycle (and I'm not sure that 2008's ever ended), there's no such thing as a "flash in the pan." On November 1, 2007, no one knew what a Barack Obama was. The election was going to be between Clinton and Guliani. That's all anyone could talk about... Hillary and Rudy. Whoops.
11:02 PM on 10/31/2011
Herman Cain--------------is leading in Texas

Rick Perry home state

http://s1.zetaboards.com/Express_Yourself/topic/4564745/1/
JRsNana
The most important things in life aren't things.
10:42 PM on 10/31/2011
So, when exactly was this piece written? Yesterday? Things move pretty fast these days. Cain backtracking on what he knew about any settlements to his accusers is putting the brakes on his campaign in a big way. And there's more. Just wait for it.
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gr8bsn
An equal opportunity offender since 1978
07:30 AM on 11/01/2011
If America ignored Obama's association with Jerimiah Wright, I can't imagine that this will last long with our short attention spans either.
10:37 PM on 10/31/2011
The saddest thing about Herman Cain is that he really thinks the GOP likes him. They tolerate him because they NEED to believe that they are really NOT racist. I wonder why they aren't making a big deal of his birth certificate? He won't be President. He knows it too. He is making money on his books and getting exposure so that he can possibly get his own show on FOX. Or become a highly sought after speaker when this is over. And I bet he can't wait till this is over so he can start making BIG money. You know, like Sarah Palin did.
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mustardhead98
Professional Fine Artist
09:04 AM on 11/01/2011
R U serious? Do you recognize how absolutely bias your post is? Did it ever occur to you people like me are supporting Cain because 1. He's NOT an establishment politician, 2. He's got an impressive educational background in everything needed to deal with this financial mess and 3. He's got the business experience, success and nohow to get this economy back on track.

Will the left never realize that every decision made isn't based on race??
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BBackSoon
Hello, I must be going.
01:24 PM on 11/01/2011
Business Experience?

I think you need to do a little research.
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Pleneras
07:34 AM on 11/02/2011
R U Serious? Pizza qualified as grounds to run a country? BAD pizza at that? From what you wrote I can tell your a terrible decision maker.
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Yikes11
10:17 PM on 10/31/2011
I see my comment was not revealed. What are you afraid of Url? I see that temporary hiatus did not agree with you. Oh well.
JRsNana
The most important things in life aren't things.
10:44 PM on 10/31/2011
I have discovered over the years that you can't EVER say anything directly critical of Mr. H's articles. Believe me. I've tried. Many times. Never been put up. He must have a rider on his no-pay contract saying no one can say anything bad about him.
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emanafunk
09:31 PM on 10/31/2011
Cain will Rick Scott America.
08:28 PM on 10/31/2011
He may not be the flash in the pan but right now he is a flash in the pants.
09:23 AM on 11/01/2011
How do you know what's in his pants....hmmmm?
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camelias and sweet tea
Small drinking village with a shrimping problem
06:34 PM on 10/31/2011
I guess this article was supposed to appear last week, not today.
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rasil
09:58 PM on 10/31/2011
Wonder what Ofar is saying now. This article must be last week's. Cain is finished, washed up, done, gone, over. His own party which he loves exposed him and I am ROTF and LOL!!!! He gets what he deserves. I wonder...if your party throws you under the bus and you lose the nomination, it's your FAULT Cain!!!
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camelias and sweet tea
Small drinking village with a shrimping problem
09:02 AM on 11/01/2011
Actually, he is out of work himself...Campaigning is not a real job
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Carl Caroli
Give peace a chance
05:57 PM on 10/31/2011
Cain is just one example of the GOPs reactive, narrow minded, thinking. He couldn't hold as candle to Obama on so many levels it isn't even funny. He's an insult to the intelligence of the majority of Americans.
04:09 PM on 10/31/2011
The Great Negrodamus A.K.A Paul Mooney, stand-up comic and writer for Richard Pryor predicted Obama would win. Not only that, but that there would never ever be another white president. Eeerily poignant.
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PoliSci2008
Life Long Democrat
02:58 PM on 10/31/2011
Dr Earl you may be on to something. It seems good ole fashion common sense political speeches draws the polls numbers. But we must learn from the past that politicians with marginal experience have proven to be less than political saavy to navigate the Hill.

And now we have another good talker, with no, none, nil political qualifications, but he's black and can challenge the democratic black block of votes. Scarey that politics have come down to this level.
02:20 PM on 10/31/2011
Could Cain possibly be a stalking horse for Romney put up by the Koch brothers?
1. I guess it is possible that desperation and anti-Romney angst could propel an organizationless candidate to victory or close second in election states, but that won't play in caucus states like Iowa and Texas. Caucus is ALL about organization. If 90% of the 20% that like you show up at the caucuses, and only 17% of the 80% that like your opponent show up ... YOU WIN!!!!
2. I don't know about the rest of the country, but I don't think Cain is going to poll well against Romney on the Coasts. We'll see soon enough, but Romney, is going to be getting his usual 25-30% day in day out. Even if Cain were to sweep the South can Cain win without the NorthEast, WestCoast, TX, and the Upper Interior West? Even MA has delegates to the Republican Convention, and I doubt many of them will be for Cain.
3. Cain is getting the buzz and Bachman and Perry are is being frozen out by Faux News and the tin-foil hat radio types. She is doomed and it isn't at all obvious to me that her followers will gravitate to Cain. Nobody has read Kadish for Perry, but it is certainly an uphill battle.
So if Romney's organization can keep him in first or very close second and Cain falls on his sword???
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ThomasMc
02:17 PM on 10/31/2011
"Cain May Mot Be"
???
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Bart DePalma
Bart DePalma
01:17 PM on 10/31/2011
Folks misunderstand Cain's organization. Cain has been tapping into the same Tea Party networks that propelled Scott Walker to victory in MA in 2010. Politics 3.0 seems to be working.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/280725/can-cain-do-it-robert-costa
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N Rathke
I march for the grandmas who can't
01:33 PM on 10/31/2011
Unfortunately, we here in WI have Scott Walker (ptooey!) You mean Scott Brown.
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Bart DePalma
Bart DePalma
01:48 PM on 10/31/2011
Yes indeed, I meant Scott Brown. My mistake.