Make No Mistake, Tuesday's GOP Surge Was About Obama

Make no mistake, Tuesday's GOP surge was about President Obama. The dumbest thing that progressives, liberal Democrats and much of the media did following Obama's election a year ago was to gloat and smugly declare the GOP dead. The silly line repeated incessantly was that the GOP has been reduced to a dwindling bunch of good ole' boy redneck yahoos in the Deep South. The even sillier line was that the GOP was so backward, discredited and marginalized that it was well on its way to sinking to a fringe party about as popular as the Socialist Labor Party and the IWW. Tuesday's election should have smashed that delusion.

The bad mistake liberals, progressives and the media made was to confuse Obama's popularity with support of his policies. Nothing could be further from the truth. Polls repeatedly warned that while a majority of voters still say they personally like Obama, they don't like, or are at best, are deeply ambivalent about his polices. The checklist is well-known; his failure to wind down the Iraq War, his threat to escalate the failed, flawed, no-win war in Afghanistan, a muddled, patchwork, terribly compromised health care reform plan, failure to rein in Wall Street profiteering, skyrocketing unemployment, bottomless home foreclosures, a stimulus shell-out that hiked the deficit but created few sustained, verifiable, long term jobs.

The even worse mistake was to misread the 2008 presidential election results. Much was made that he got more white votes than John Kerry or Al Gore. That he revved up young whites, and that he totally exorcised race from the campaign. Obama's win supposedly was final proof that America had kicked the racial syndrome. This is the stuff of media talk and wishful thinking. Despite a GOP racked by sex and corruption scandals, an anemic presidential opponent, a laughingstock vice presidential candidate, a collapsed economy and an outgoing GOP president with a rating worse than Herbert Hoover's, McCain still crushed Obama by a twelve point spread among white voters.

The route was not just among old, Deep South, unreconstructed or latent bigoted white male voters, but in virtually every voter demographic among whites, including a dead heat with Obama among a majority of younger white voters. This doesn't tell the whole story of the sharp divide Obama still faces. A sizeable percentage of whites were disgusted enough with Bush's policies to stay home on Election Day, but not disgusted enough with him and his policies to vote for Obama. The Henry Louis Gates affair and the right's town hall rabble rousing made more voters wary of Obama's policies. Polls after the Gates outburst showed that a majority of whites condemned Obama for backing Gates and, even more ominously, expressed big doubts about his policies.

A painful reality is that the crushing majority of whites who oppose Obama or disavow his policies for racial, party, ideological reasons or personal prejudices, are a solid backbone of the radical right's counter insurgency against him. A cursory glance at the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races showed that except for a handful of counties with the big cities with a majority of young, liberal, and minority voters, the GOP swept all the counties. Even in the hotly contested upstate New York congressional race, that some crow about as a GOP rebukes, it wasn't. Despite the laughingly divided and feuding GOP factions, GOP conservative candidate Doug Hoffman still corralled nearly fifty percent of the vote.

The huge treasure trove of dollars that South Carolina congressman Joe Wilson hauled in after his legendary "you lie" outburst against Obama in the midst of his congressional health care reform talk before Congress, and the off the charts fund raising haul the Republican National Committee raked in the past two months, were two grave warning signs that the GOP is hardly a lifeless corpse.

No, Tuesday's election was about Obama. The 2010 and 2012 elections will be the same. Progressives, liberal Democrats, and the media would be more than foolish to think otherwise.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book, How Obama Governed: The Year of Crisis and Challenge (Middle Passage Press) will be released in January 2010.

 

Comments

[SCrae]

Only 20% in NJ & VA said they were voting against Obama's policies. His job approval was above 50% on the exit polls, but don't let facts get in the way, right??

Also, after Reagan won VA by a huge margin in 1980 & 1984, a Democrat won the Governor's race in 1981 & 1985. Virginians have elected a Governor who is in the opposite party of the sitting President every election since 1977. These are not talking points; they are facts based on history of the State of Va.

Governors don't vote in the Congress. We picked up Congressional seats in NY23 & CA10. Two more votes for health care for the Speaker. I don't buy that this election was about Obama. The facts don't bare that out. If you want to go with the Repug talking points, so be it.

[jsgaetano]

LOL... GOP "Surge".

I hope they keep surging. More victories like the one they just "had", and they'll go the way of the Whigs.

[BocaMom]

Everyone who has a brain knows the reason we had our clocks cleaned on Tuesday is because of the failed economy and over 10% unemployment and growing! Do you think any of those unemployed folks and their friends and relatives would support the do nothing Congress! Electing Obama was suppose to be a change for the better. Go tell 15 million unemployed Americans and all the people who lost their homes and businesses.

[jsgaetano]

How many jobs were lost every month during the eight years of the Bush administration? You might want to look into that little factoid.

It's going to take more than one year to undo the damage caused by 30+ years of conservative ideologues tearing down America and it's institutions.

[strangelet]

Aside from the "it's about Obama" notion, Hutchinson is correct to point out that the GOP is still far from dead. It has contracted, demographically and geographically, but there are certainly still many states and Congressional districts where it remains at least the plurality party. It is true that some liberals tend to overlook this, and also to forget that the legislative system left to us by the Framers is intentionally skewed in a way that makes sudden, dramatic changes difficult to achieve.

Still, Hutchinson's analysis of the "white vote" is overblown. A couple of examples:

"A painful reality is that the crushing majority of whites who oppose Obama or disavow his policies for racial, party, ideological reasons or personal prejudices, are a solid backbone of the radical right's counter insurgency against him."

McCain's advantage among whites was 55% - 43%. Certainly a strong majority, but "crushing"?
These folks are not a "backbone" -- they are the entire "counterin­surgency".

"A sizeable percentage of whites were disgusted enough with Bush's policies to stay home on Election Day, but not disgusted enough with him and his policies to vote for Obama."

I'd be curious to know the source for this claim. According to the Census Bureau, the percentage of non-Hispanic whites who voted was statistically unchanged from 2004. Certainly Mr. Hutchinson wouldn't just make this up.

[EducatedObserver]

I am inclined to agree once again with Mr Hutchinson, although I would add that in the main, Americans are beginning to suspect that Mr Obama is more interested in his own PR, than the good of the American nation, Republicans and Democrats.

For all those straining to defend the indefensible - that this result does not presage what is likely to happen in next year's elections.­..

Watch this space.

[Ozarks]

duh you claim: "The bad mistake liberals, progressives and the media made was to confuse Obama's popularity with support of his policies"

Deems said he , if elected governor of Virginia, would opt out of the Public Option. It appears Deems , distancing himself from Obama policies was the "bad mistake"

[jsgaetano]

That's the true lesson of the Dem's losses this year. When Democrats run as Democrats, they'll win. When Democrats run as conservative teabagging Republicans, they'll lose.

[JimR]

Oh please. A dead dog could have beaten Corzine. And are you really calling the 2 wins in NJ and Virginia a "surge"? That's got to be the most pathetic surge in recorded political history.

And it's funny how you don't mention Tuesday's exit polls, in which a majority of voters said Obama was not a factor in how they voted.

[cgoodie]

You, Mr. Hutchison, have been watching way too much cable news. It is you who is out of touch. You failed to mention that the 23rd District has elected a Republican (translate conservative) since the Civil War. You also failed to mention the Dem congressional win in California. Republicans may be relevant in some states, but Dems are relative on a national level. They now have two more votes in Congress.

[Unsui]

Agreed.

[CAMBEL]

Your article makes it seem that the demographic results were unique to Obama...

Obama did not win a majority of white voters; no Democrat has since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But he ran equal to the last three Democratic candidates for president among white voters, and even slightly better than the party's 2004 nominee.

[Agent of Virtue]

Very wrong.

The majority of Christie voters said taxes and corruption were their reason. He didn't scare the children; didn't discuss national politics (and no - it was not a subtext). He ran as a moderate, shunned the teabaggers while running a very negative campaign.

Corzine. An unpopular incumbant (37% approval); failure to deliver; Wall Street ties; not liked by the northern county Democratic chiefs; amazingly negative campaign; failed to win in a state notorious for savaging governors. Wow, amazing.

Virginia - never going to elect a third consecutive Democrat, especially this one. Deeds: one of the most incompetant campaigns in state memory; from a rural area; no experience; opposed every Obama program; alienated unions; pitiful debate style; low Democratic turnout because he would not support issues important to the base.

McDonnell: from powerhouse Northern Virginia; did not frighten the children; told tea bagger rabble to keep out; statewide experience; articulate; portrayed as moderate; did not bring up any national issues. Oh, received the same percentage of Republican votes as did McCain.

On the other hand, two Democrats were elected to the House. One took a seat they have not held in 120 years against a crazed teabagger candidate. Dede would have held the seat. Both Democrats ran with Obama, not away.

Democrats, learn this: Don't alienate your base. Learn to fight. Take off the gloves. Strip Lieberman of his chair. Use reconciliation where possible. No bipartisanship. No quarter. Teabaggers are enemies of the Republic.

[cgoodie]

You make a lot of sense. Fanned.

[FanofPaine]

THIS!

[StillweRise]

most honest assessment of what happened. Olifari... I really do wonder about you.

[jsgaetano]

Damned good assessment of the whole thing.

[middleoftheroad]

Progressives don't get it. They overreached just like the GOP did...and now the middle has turned their back on them. Earl, I would suggest this was a vote aginst Pelosi much more than Obama. She has led him off a cliff and HE HAS LET HER.

[codycap]

What you call the middle is not, it is the right, democrats in name only.

Democrats = progressives
Democrat center = far right
Republicans = wing nuts

I think that sums it up

[vippy]

We are a really SAD Country! The time spent by one party to reduce or damage the other party is not
only immature but unprofessional. However, yes, the election result had something to do with Obama and the direction the country is taking. No one really knows where the economy is, and we keep hearing about a jobless recovery. There is no such thing. The stock market is way overblown at this time when you think on what exactly are they making money? Somehow nothing adds up. But for the people to vote for the party that got us into this mess is ludicrous. I guess it is like a fox chasing his own tail and never getting anywhere. We are indeed hopeless.

[TaxDayMan]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33650641/ns/politics-washington_post

It would appear that seems MSNBC, the Washington Post, and Congressional Democrats didn't get the Obama memo that Tuesday wasn't important to Democrats?

[Joe The Nerd Ferraro - Huffpost Blogger]

mr. hutchinson,
i think you are oversimplifing the nj result.

corzine came off as a rich guy candidate who has the appearance of flaunting laws. his resume of goldman-sachs, the car accident which his caused by speeding, not wearing a seat belt (cost him a couple of months of service) gave him an aloofness.

when he went after his opponent for being a fat guy, i think people were looking at corzine as somebody who wasn't running on his record.

there are too many factors indpendent of obama and indpendent of race at work in the nj campaign.

it was corzine's to lose and he did.

[newsmaker]

When healthcare passes, and it will, the sad part is people that are fighting against it are going to benefit from it too. If I were Pres, I'd make sure they wouldn't.

[Golfer59]

That's one of the reason why I thought the adding "Opt-Out" to the health care bill would have been a great idea. If the states don't want it the people can vote to not take it.