Message to Hillary (And the DNC): Win Indiana, And You're in the Money

Message to Hillary. Win Indiana and you're in the money. Clinton will make an irresistible case for the nomination; a case that the three hundred fence sitting superdelegates if they really care about electability ignore at their peril. Here's why Indiana is far more crucial to the Democrat's hopes in the fall than an Obama win in North Carolina. A win for him there is simply a win in another Southern state that is not in play for the Democrats in the fall. A quick look at the demographics in North Carolina tells why it's a pyrrhic win. Blacks make up one third of Democratic voters, and college educated, younger white professionals make up another significant percentage of the state's Democrats. These are Obama's major backers. They were also George McGovern's major backers in 1972 and remember the debacle for him and the Democratic Party.

The voters that make or break a Democratic presidential hopeful are white, male, blue collar, and rural voters, and older women voters. A Hillary win in Indiana is further proof that she can win a good portion of their votes. She doesn't have to win Indiana in the general election to make an iron-clad case for the nomination. Only two Democrats have won the state since 1936; FDR in 1936 and Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But the demographics of the state closely match those of Ohio and Pennsylvania as well as big swatches of America that are tailor made for Clinton.

Take out the state's two big cities, Indianapolis and Gary and Obama's core black voters make up a minuscule percent of the state's voters, less than 10 percent. Take out the area around South Bend, and Obama's core voters of students and young people and they make up just as minuscule a percent of the state's voters. The voters are older, mostly white, heavily blue collar, rural, and many are less financially endowed and educated than Obama's other set of business and professional, college graduate core backers. A big percent are passionate gun owners, devoutly religious, and proudly wear American flags in their lapels and festoon their doorways with the flag. These are the voters that have put GOP presidents in and back in the White House. Even when they don't, they have kept elections closer than they should have been for failed GOP candidates. This election is no different than the others.

Indiana is also a small state that plays like a big state precisely because the voter demographics and issues closely mirror those of the several other big states. The two biggest issues are escalating job losses and affordable health care. In surveys and spot interviews, Indiana voters are just as nervous about these issues as millions of voters in other states. They say that they'll take a long look at the candidate whether Democrat or Republican that can best deal with these two crisis issues. The one constant about Clinton that even the most rabid Hillary haters have not been able to shake is the high numbers that she consistently racks up of voters who think that she'll do the best job in handling these issues. It's been that way from the start of her campaign.

However, just being a good crisis manager on the economy and health care is not enough for a Democratic presidential candidate to dent the wall of conservatism and tradition in the red states and to be competitive with the GOP. They also have to pass or come close to passing the values test. The inflammatory issues of abortion and gay marriage will be no factors this election as they were in 2004. But patriotism, religion, gun ownership, mistrust of big government, the work ethic, and law and order are still deeply embedded values measures. No matter how good a Democratic candidate's stand appears on the economy, an f grade on the values test will sink a Democrat.

The presidential race in Ohio 2004 was a classic example of that. Democratic presidential contender John Kerry had a pragmatic and comprehensive plan to deal with the state's towering job losses. In the end it meant little. Even the most economically strapped white workers with bills piled sky high still demanded to know where the candidate stood on issues of God, motherhood and country. Kerry flunked badly on the values test with many Ohio voters. That helped dump Bush back in the White House. Hillary's Pennsylvania win showed that it still means a lot to these voters.

Indiana will again go dutifully to the GOP as it has for the past seven decades. But a Clinton win among Democrats in the parts of Indiana that most resemble the rest of mid-America is irrefutable proof that she can go toe to toe with the GOP with these voters. The message to Hillary and the tin ear DNC is: win Indiana, and you're in the money.

Footnote: Poll: Clinton Beats McCain In Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio
Quinnipiac | May 1, 2008 10:37 AM

"Winning among white working class voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds strong leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain - and runs much better than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to three simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today."
WELL..................

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[pottery]

I'm voting my hopes and dreams, my future. The America I want to have, not what others want me to. I'm voting for the person, the vision I support. I'm supporting Obama! Or Clinton, should she win, that is.

[arthuride]

Well-written, logical, analytical, and correct. The Democrats lose the Presidency, the House, the Senate and the US Supreme Court with Obama heading the ticket--middle Americans will not vote for a man who had a hell-raising preacher on his board of advisors, a wife who was never proud to be an American, and who speaks only to the young and those better educated--as it is the average 6-pack Joe who drives a truck, is a member of the NRA, and loves his god, church, and country and all of their symbols who elect the presidents. Obama will never appeal to rural America or to the blue collar worker. He is totally out of touch and a large number of registered Democrats will vote for McCain rather than vote for him--and the DNC and the nation loses. Hillary is the only hope for the Democratic Party and the nation, and can bring a greater Democratic control to both House and Senate. Hillary is the one. The Only One.

[pottery]

This is what other coldly rational pundits, and the Clinton's themselves realize. Demographics and class are dogged predictors of the election results. Pride is reading the tea leaves without letting hopes skew his judgment. "Look, the guy is black! Alright!"

[jw]

This writer gets a lot of undeserved abuse because no one has realized he is writing comedy.

[skidz12]

You are a hack my man.
I'm sure this won't get posted just like all my other posts exposing you as the Clinton cronie you so obviously are.
After Obama wins the nomination will you'll still be screaming how electible and deserving she is despite losing to her opponent fair and square in overall contests won, elected delegates, and yes even the popular vote? Despite being out raised and out-organized?
I'm sure you'll be here swearing up and down how Obama is doomed and the Majority of the electorate who gave him his victory are no more than ignorant blind sheep.
Thankfully the truth is much different than you and your fellow Clintonites try and spin, so come November my man, you and you're kind will be silenced and shocked at the results.
You and your candidate will have no "I told you so" moment.
Instead Obama and the rest of us will be moving on into the future while ya'll are left scratching your heads.
P.S. You are the blind sheep my man.

[DBriz]

Are you kidding? What has the Clinton campaign promised you to write this nonsense? The more I read garbage like this, the more it reaffirms my decision to support Obama. This is an embarrassment and Clinton should defnately consider switching back to the party of her roots. She is behaving more and more like a Republican every day. Yuck.

[nsiah7]

So only whites votes count. Black votes as well as the votes of the educated and the young should not be counted in a primary because they are not needed to win in general election. Your analysis is full of errors and not backed by any proof. You are a disgrace to the American people. Whenever Clinton wins, it is big and important but whatever Obama has won is not significant because people who voted for him are non-existent and their votes are insignificant. You Clinton supporters are so Republican you make McCain look like Al-Gore. Shame on you.

[BJMS]

So, if Obama wins North Carolina, it doesn't matter because it's just another southern state with a lot of African Americans? But, if Clinton wins Indiana, it's HUGE, and she should get the nomination because of it even though it will definitely go Republican in the fall?? HUH???????­?????????? Do they actually pay you for this???

[Titonwan]

Any one buying this hatchet head hack for Clinton? No? I didn't think so. She's never catching up. Period. Obama!

[Krikkit]

Prior to the PA contest, Hillary needed an average of 60% of the delegates from all the remaining contests, plus 60% of the remaining superdelegates to endorse her. After her win in PA, she now needs a little over an average of 62% of the remaining delegates and a little over 62% of the remaining superdelegates to take the nomination. She is falling farther and farther behind because she isn't winning with high enough margins to overtake Obama's lead.

A win for Clinton at 55% of the vote is about as good as it gets. The math doesn't lie, and neither does Hillary's performance at the polls. Despite the fact that she is trying to get voters and superdelegates to believe that she actually has a very broad, wide and deep voter support base, the votes tell a different story, even in those states that are deemed to be strong states for her.

Maybe if our schools had not fallen so far behind world standards in the past two decades, more voters could do this simple math to figure out that Clinton can't win the nomination now and this contest would be over. But because we are woefully ignorant as a society, it will continue to the bitter end. Good thing there's delegate counters out there to do the math for us:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

[presto]

The math is significant when it actually happens. When someone reaches 2,025, he or she will win. That is the only math part. Speculation is fun and running the odds is interesting, but neither one is fact. Implosion on the part of either candidate could change everything. There is nothing to be gained by calling people stupid when there is obviously no number yet to look at.

[V4Vigilance]

I totally agree with you. That's why I'm hoping the superdelegates will do what what's needed and put us out of the misery that is the Clinton campaign. They're supposed to protect the party and all Clinton is doing now is damaging the Democrat's chance for victory in November.

2025, the sooner, the better.

OBAMA 08

[BigBen]

We seem to have lost sight of the goal...... to win in November.

[nsiah7]

But reason will tell you that Obama will get there first. Who has gained more superdelegate since Super Tuesday? Who is leading in Pledged delegate? Who is leading in Popular Votes? Reason up and get some education.

[AshleyMarie]

Of course!

Let's forget about the rules and those pesky things called delegates!!!

And after she is the nominee, we can forget about the electoral college too! Whatever gets her in the White House, right!?!?

Geez, people.... Get a life!!!!

[fishretired]

Just another prime example of how out of touch pundits are to the procedures to elect a nominee. If popular vote, delegates, states won, money raised, etc. aren't working for Hillary, then it is obvious that these metrics should be tossed aside for something more definitive. Let's see - how about if Hillary wins certain precincts in Indiana, then she clearly is the best general election candidate for the fall.

Bravo - nice try Hutchinson but garbage analysis non-the-less. Desite having the most exciting and thought provoking candidate to come along in years (notice the excitement in registration anyone?), there are so many that still want this country to operate the old way.

Example: Gotta love that gas tax holiday idea - for most of us its about $20-$30 over the summer, but if you drive a hummer that hasn't been tuned up in years, you'll get more than $100 in savings. Pandering? You decide. Reality - it won't save any of us a penny, but the oil companies will reap a small gain.

What a media world we live in........the bonus for Hillary is that her image works for the less educated populace even if she really has no voting record to support that position - anyone wonder why??

[FrankBlackFrancis]

What a waste of space.
If Hillary gains the nomination she will have had to use superdelegates to supersed the pledged delegate and popular votes the party will expereince a husge rift. Most party officials agree, this is not a desirable end game and will hurt the party and our chances in November. She will be percieved as having stolen the nomination and will be vilified anew for it. It's not a realistic option and therefor, uinless winning Indiana will give her the 130 or so pledged delegates she needs to catch him, it won't be of any help.

[Krikkit]

If Hillary steals the nomination, I've been told there will be rioting in the streets in Colorado come convention time. Wonder why?

[presto]

It is highly unlikely anyone could succeed in "stealing" the election. It will be determined by the superdelegates doing what superdelegates do.

[BigBen]

And we said that the 3am call was fear tactics.

[mnnice]

i just checked on indiana voting laws and all you have to do is show up and ask for a ballot.The regrubs. are going to be there in full force voting for hillary.The dnc knows this shit so just what are they waiting for.Sorry state of affairs here folks.DNC, if you do that this party is done. This despicable woman has been making a mockery of this party long enough , What a joke.

[Krikkit]

...Except I'm not laughing.

[presto]

Actually, you do have to be registered in order to vote so just asking for a ballot would not do the trick. And Indiana is no different from many states with an open primary. What exactly do you think Hillary has done to the Indiana primary? What are you so worried about? While there may be, as there always are, some Republican votes it will hardly be like a hoarde of locusts. Ninety percent of Republicans could not care less who the Democrats vote for. Calm down.

[amblush617]

You also have to show a picture ID when you go to vote, just like here in Kentucky. The Supreme Court just upheld Ind's picture ID, so there can't be people just showing up & voting ...
BUT it seems BO spporters won't stop posting these lies ...

[mnnice]

Slate.com jurispudence

[nazcalito]

EOH says that North Carolina is not going to go for the Democrats, and then a bit later he admits that Indiana is not going to go for the Democrats either, but Hillary winning it will get her the superdelegates because it's like states that will go for the Democrats, or whatever the argument is. And then there's this argument about not counting the urban areas or the student areas. Can you folks figure out what he's talking about? I can't, and I don't think he knows, either.

I checked, Indiana has about 6 million people and North Carolina has almost 9 million people. Seems like anyone looking at the contest objectively would say that NC is a more significant win than IN.

[presto]

It is not that he is not counting the urban and student areas - he is just subtracting them to get to the demographics of the bulk of the state. For illustration purposes only. The resulting majority is tilted towards the Clinton base populace. They also mimic, demographically, huge swaths of the midwest in general.