The one question that coursed across everyone's lips in the ad nausea yak over Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama's so-called race speech was: Did the speech help or hurt him? A Gallup poll stretched from March 14 through March 18. It was released two days after his speech. While it did not fully measure Democratic voter sentiment on the effect of the his speech, the responses in the poll on March 18 may have reflected some voter sentiment about the speech.
The results offer no cheer to Obama. In fact there are two things about the results that should cause much worry for him. One is that arch rival Clinton now tops him among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters.
This is less a stunning turnabout than it seems. Obama's much ballyhooed string of victories have come in mostly red states that the Democrats don't have a prayer of winning in the general election anyway. Meanwhile, core Democrats have continued to consistently and quietly (they're not chic, exciting, and mediagenic to the loathe Hillary pack), backed Clinton. They, not young voters (too fickle), the independents (GOP leaning anyway), and cross over Republicans (not reliable) are the backbone of the Democratic Party. No Democratic or Republican presidential candidate can win the White House without the solid backing of their core supporters. They are the ones who will loyally trudge through rain, sleet and snow to cast their votes, and pony up the cash and people the phone banks for their party.
They have kept Clinton in the hunt for the nomination at the times when it seemed that the Obama surge would sweep her away. They were the ones that have insured that her win the big states strategy has paid off and will continue to pay off for her in the final showdown for the nomination at the Democratic convention.
The second and maybe even more worrisome thing for Obama is that most of the respondents in the Gallup poll gave the nod to Clinton three days before his speech. This could only mean one thing and that's that the sands of popular Democratic voter support had already quietly but decisively begun to shift back to Clinton.
The Wright and race speech was then just a sideshow event. A majority of Democratic voters had already pretty much made up their minds that Clinton was the far more bankable choice than Obama to win in a head-to-head face off with McCain.
The Gallup poll further bolstered that conviction when it found that Obama not only had slipped badly among Democrats, he also had slipped behind McCain in a face off with him. Polls earlier had shown Obama slightly nudging out McCain in the general election. Clinton by contrast was in a statistical dead heat with McCain in the Gallup poll.
Obama's poll tumble came at a terrible time for him. The Pennsylvania primary looms on April 22, and polls show that Clinton not only holds a commanding lead over him in that crucial primary, but has widened her lead. The need for him to talk about Wright and race made it even worse. Pennsylvania has virtually the same voter demographics as Ohio. Apart from its two big cities, it's heavily blue collar, rural, and socially conservative. No matter how eloquently Obama addressed Wright and race it was the last thing that Obama needed to wave in front of the voters in the Pennsylvania hinterland. A loss in Pennsylvania will more than boost Clinton's contention that she, not he, can win the big states, including the must-win swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is the only way to insure that the Democrats can make the election a real horse race with McCain.
Obama's Wright and race speech was clearly designed to accomplish two things. One was to silence the waverers and doubters about his racial sentiments. The other was to shove the issue of race as a contentious issue quickly off the nation's and voter's table. Time will tell whether he succeeded. The Gallup poll, however, showed that more Democrats than ever now say they want Clinton and not Obama as their candidate. Talk of Wright and race didn't change that one bit. Or put another way, thank God sometimes the people can cut through the garbage and deception and get it right.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).