President Obama's One Term Nightmare
In an interview on NBC's Today Show two weeks after he was sworn in, President Obama was blunt. He said that if he didn't deliver he'd be "a one term proposition." Put this in the category of what did he know and when did he know it. The way he put it, he's under the white hot glare of the public to deliver the goods, or be quickly dumped in the presidential has-been bin. Polls back up this hard political reality about Obama. A mid-August Washington Post-ABC News survey found that his approval ratings continue to plunge. Part of that can be chalked up to inevitability.
New presidents always ride into office on the crest of both voter hopes and euphoria about the prospect of change and disgust at and voter fatigue with the former seat warmer in the White House. And new presidents just as quickly see their approval ratings dip or freefall. It's easy to see why. They try to do too much too soon; promise not to do political business in the old ways; try to make too drastic legislative changes, or quickly reverse the bad old policies of their predecessor. It's the fabled man on the white horse coming to the rescue. This is, of course, just that fable. Real politics and an impatient public knock that storybook notion for a loop.
In Obama's case, he gambled that his presidency would be a crowning success if he could beat back the fine-tuned, well-oiled and well-endowed health care industry juggernaut and get health care reform, that's real health care reform, through Congress and into law. Only one president has been able to do this and that was Lyndon Johnson. He arm-twisted, browbeat, and out smarted Congress and the health care industry to get Medicare. Johnson had won a landslide election victory in 1964, had fine-tuned, hard-nosed political skills and had the reform spirit of the civil rights movement and a solid Democratic party behind him. And he had the wellspring of public sympathy after JFK's murder. Obama is not LBJ, politically. And he has neither the times or Johnson's massive mandate for change going for him.
Above everything else, the voters put Obama in the White House to make the economy right, rein in the Wall Street greed merchants, save jobs and homes, and get the credit pipeline to businesses open. That hasn't happened. Instead they've gotten a raucous, and contentious health care reform fight that's given a badly fractured and reeling GOP the butt of scorn and jokes, something that it never dreamed in its wildest dreams in mid-November could happen. That's the weapon to get back in the political hunt. If anyone had dared to say a month ago that the percent of voters who blame Obama for making a mess of health care reform was in striking distance of the number of voters who blame the GOP for the mess, they'd have been measured for a straightjacket. A mid-August Pew Research survey found just that.
Obama eventually will get a health care bill to sign. But it will be a bill that will satisfy few. Progressives will scream even louder that the bill sans a public option, and a deal laden with big Pharma giveaways, is smoke and mirrors, a sham reform, and another infuriating betrayal of his campaign pledge of hope and change. The Fox Network, Limbaugh, and the GOP attack hounds will scream even louder that the bill and Obama are taking the country down a sink hole. The bill will leave the majority of voters confused, perplexed, and even more uneasy about what Obama is really up to, and his seeming inability to be the tough, decisive leader that millions took a chance on and backed.
The conventional wisdom is that Obama has plenty of time to get things right. Here's the problem. Health care and the economy are signature markers for a successful Obama first term, and the justification for a second one. Doubts, unease, or his real or perceived failure will be hard to unhinge from voter thinking. Blacks, Hispanics, young and progressive voters will still back him. But will they crusade for him as they did in 2008? That means again turning out in big and impassioned numbers. This won't happen if they feel Obama waffled or reneged on his key promises. Meanwhile, the GOP will sow more fear, pound away on the doubts, unease and perceived failures of Obama. It will dump its bizarre Palin fascinaton, will have a fat campaign chest, and will groom a fresh new GOP face, (just like the Dems did with Obama).
Worse, Obama won't have the gargantuan trump card he had in 2012. That was the Bush bogeyman to scare, shock, and rev up voters. This doesn't spell defeat in 2012. It does spell an Obama nightmare about a one term presidency.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His weekly radio show, "The Hutchinson Report" can be heard weekly in Los Angeles at 9:30 AM Fridays on KTYM Radio 1460 AM and live streamed nationally on ktym.com
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2012 I'm voting for the candidate who says we're out of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in 90 days; we're not going to place missiles on Russia's border nor have a vice-president who denigrates a nation with a nuclear arsenal that can destroy the world. And that candidate is not Obama.
Maybe we're looking at a Kucinich/Paul ticket?
Or how about Chomsky/Nader?
Obama was essentially doomed before he even took office. What we're seeing is a 30 year house of cards called Reaganism collapsing. To try to turn around 30 years to any significant degree is near impossible.
But think of it this way: How could anyone else possibly do better? With the republican crowd in charge, can anyone imagine how much worse things would be? They would have bailed out the banks, but they wouldn't have ever passed anything extending unemployment or any other social program to people that need it. If the crypt keeper and tina fey won, we'd have invaded Iran and North Korea already, we'd still be hated and in an even deeper hole.
Thank You for your outstanding piece, it is astonishing and sad that what was once Hope,
is now in many places turning to indifference. It seems that we are very used to being
disappointed, and President Obama is clearly disappointing us. He lacks fight and passion,
and his groveling to the very Republicans who have vowed to defeat him, turns many stomachs.
We keep asking ourselves, what's wrong with this guy? Why has he flamed out so quickly?
Why doesn't he fight, we gave him the House, the Senate and The White House, he is acting
like he lost and the Republicans won. We need an FDR, a LBJ - and sadly it looks like we have
another Carter.
The healthcare debate is a war between corporations v. people (the government), and the corporations are winning. They have convinced the brainwashed (Fox tv) people that we need the insurance companies between us and the healthcare providers.
O. must speak in one clear, simple four word declarative sentence, yes, one sentence. Develop your mantra and ram it 24/7. O. is too verbose and Americans are tuning him out. Repubs. are masters at the phrase or simple sentence zingers and keep at it around the clock. Dems are all over the place and their message is muddled, plus, they contradict their own message, which is poor. Dems need to be locked in a room 24/7 and forced to watch speeches from great Dems of years past. Maybe they will manage to develop a spine, but , right now they look like a bunch of cowards. They must be enjoying all of the ca$h that is rolling their way from the corporations and Americans are on the outside looking in.
Health Insurance Reform with Strong Public Option for All!!!!
Simple, direct and exactly what 77% of this country wants and needs....p
This country is run by very large multi-national greedy corporations. If they are not reined in - it does not and will not matter who is the President.
Bush was a puppet of Big Oil and the military-industrial complex. They are not going to let go of their power anytime soon.
Americans need to wake up and stop listening to all the propoganda.
Obama has so far show himself to be as much a corporate shill as Bush. He's just better at making people feel good about it. We'll see how long that lasts, once fake healthcare reform crashes and burns.
I've been observing what's going on the last month or so and have a rather controversial idea (or analysis). Let me first say that I have found it shocking to witness how quickly "we" have turned on Obama. I say "we" to describe those that voted for him, not just the left. I understand that the issues are deeply complex and that no one-NO ONE-could inherit the total mess 8 years of the Bush Administration left the world to cope with and fix it immediately. The public seemed at first to grasp this and was willing to be patient. So what happened? What we are seeing is an unfair expectation of Obama based on his race. Let me explain. My partner is black. He's perhaps the most honest, organized, responsible and decent person I've ever known. We've had many talks about race and I was especially struck by one conversation in which he described what it was like to feel he had to be perfect in everyway because he doesn't have the same cushion that many white people have. Society, he explained to me, doesn't afford the luxury of "messing up" to a black man the way it does to a white man. In essence, we've all been waiting for him to mess up because deep down, we believe that is inevitable. Ask yourself and answer honestly: If he were white, would you be so quick to write off his entire presidency at 7 months? Be honest. Please.
I don't expect President Obama to be perfect. That would be completely unfair and unrealistic. What I feel he needs to be, and isn't doing too well at, is tough. He is not going to progress with his agenda when spending so much political capital coddling infantile Democratic senators, not to mention Republicans who only want him to fail.
Black, white, Klingon, Vulcan, etc. It is not Obama's origin or shade. It is his policies. Racism is so yesterday. Why be distracted with something that no longer applies. It is just another form of navel gazing. Obama is a hard left liberal. The country is not. Therin lies the conflict.
Lost us on that last part altogether.
Oops. So close.
Darn it.
:)
Obama is a centrist. The people who publicly deny racism in America are ususally the people who perpetuate it in private. That has been my experience living in the South all these years
Malmond, let me be honest. I think your contention that race is the issue here is sadly mistaken. I don't care that Obama is black. I don't think his failure is inevitable because he's black. I don't want him to fail because he's black. Those contentions just use supposed or perceived racism to blame 'the american public' for abandoning Obama so quickly. If he's being abandoned, I'd posit that it's because his governing style has been so at odds with his campaign style. As a candidate he was a breath of fresh air, new and a signifier of change. As the president, he and his administration and the democratic majority in Congress have very quickly proven that they are, above all, politicians, that they will attempt to govern by fiat, or bute force, and that nothing has changed. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. That's not racism. That is not about color. That's just fatigue with business as usual. Power. Greed. Political hubris. Where's the change? Where's the difference? Deep down, I'm not waiting for Obama to mess up. Deep down, I don't care what color he is. Deep down, I'm just disappointed he seems to be, above all else, a politician. Honestly.
Hear, Hear, Spot On!!!!
You are correct that the mess left behind may take years to repair. I, & I suspect others are not upset with the pace of government. It is the lack of leadership, the political will to get things done & make things happen.
We are still torturing. We have removed few, if any troops from Iraq. There is no financial reform. Gitmo is not closed or closing. Signing statements continue. The Homeland Security Act is being retained. Rethuglicans lie about Death Panels & end of life counseling is removed from any reform. Far too many Shrub abuses & policies are continuing unabated. The president has abandons single payer & the public option & "reform" is becoming a code word for mandatory purchase of insurance for the insurance company's benefit. The list goes on & on.
Health insurance reform was a scam from the beginning. Democrats and Republicans accepted lobbying $ frojm Big Pharm and Big Insurance to get the jobs they have. The American people are simply being set up for another massive rip-off. Mandated health insurance coverage - like car insurance - but more expensive. As our politicians spin, "negotiate" and pretend that they care, we the people who are not blinded are vomiting.
I think you underestimate the mandate Obama received. He could have passed real, meaningful reform had he done things differently. The first, and most obvious, was to forget the foolish attempt to let the Republicans join in a bipartisan pipe dream. The Republicans were NEVER going to support any real reform. NEVER. Obama should have gotten that message after his clumsy stimulus effort where his "bipartisan" outreach got him nothing.
The second problem was, in attempting to avoid the Clinton's supposed secret plan development approach, Obama left it up to congress to design the bill. What he got, after Republican and Blue Dog mischief was a hollow shell of confusing ideas. The proverbial horse designed by committee. Obama's alledged inside deals with the health care industry hurt as well. He's got real trust issues now.
Had Obama simply said, "the Democrats are going to extend Medicare to ALL Americans and the Republicans are welcome to support that and get some of the credit", our country would be in better shape. The Democratic party would be in better shape and the Republicans wouldn't look so foolish--unless they wanted to go all out opposing Medicare.
He grossly and innocently underestimated the power of the ubiquitous zionists, hidden and unhidden, who, after Obama's Mid-East Declarations, have been csrrying out a campaign of internet stories,et
Peace and a comprehensive settlement in the Israel-Palestine mess is further away now than it ever was, because Obama has flinched in the face of Netanyahu, and unless Obama has the courage to stand up to him outright, and publicly, a peace will never occur, and this is exactly what Israel wants, unless it is a peace and settlement entirely on its terms.
Gotta love the ability of fanatical bigots and racists to discover some method of spewing their anti-Semitism into any topic. Find a better avenue for your baseless vitriol.
Very depressing to read. I pray you're wrong.
The president needs to realize that this isn't just about him. The return of the Rethugs would be a national nightmare. There is a window of opportunity now to set the country right and keep it that way. Am I the only one who could use some anti-anxiety meds right about now?
Well, you could try to realize that no one knows the future, and Hutchinson doesn't really know what will happen. We do know some things, that President Obama is smart and caring and also rather politically astute. He managed to pull of quite an upset with his presidential run, which pundits thought was going to be impossible. There were so many times during the campaign that dire predictions were made by the pundits that he couldn't possibly win what with all the various issues people were holding against him, right or wrong. Yet he won. And he chose good people for his cabinet and staff. He's working his tail off to try to clean up the mess Bush left. I don't take any of the doomsayers seriously. Like I said, they don't really know, they're just guessing. Too bad they state things so categorically. In the end, the future will be what it is, and we could all be very surprised, and possibly quite happily.
There, is that better? :)
Keeping the faith.
;-]
It amazes me how many are ready to through our president under the bus. Get a grip, people! Just where would we be right now if the "other" side would have won the election? I don't even want to think about it.
I meant "throw" not "through." Sorry.
However you spelled it, I get the point. :) And I completely agree. President Obama hasn't even been in office a year. Doesn't he get some probation? Private business usually has 6 months or even a year for probation, for a learning curve. I should think it would take quite a while to figure out everything a president needs to know, especially given there is no one to train him. I really wish we'd all relax. It's always darkest before the dawn, right?
What silly people inhabit this bogosphere. We are literally a mere 7 months into the first year of a presidency and already people think they can speculate with credibility about the elections of 2012. At this point in Bush's first term, 9/11 had not yet happened, and Bush was still dabbling in the persona of "The Compassionate Conservative", a persona that would soon be abandoned, to be replaced by "The Commander In Chief". The point is, by 2012, health insurance reform will be a fading memory, and a lot WILL (notice I didn't say "can", I said "will") happen between now and November 2012. Obama (and progressives) don't need to worry about 2012 until about July, 2011. Let's keep ourselves focused on the politics at hand. 2012 is not part of our horizon yet.
Exactly. Nobody remembered Katrina or torture or missing WMD or illegal wiretaps during the 2008 election. See how well that worked out for McCain?
Yup, exactly. He still has more than 3 years left in his first term, for crying out loud. At this point in Bush's first term, his presidency had yet to be defined.
Oh, Ofay!
You were wrong, wrong, wrong with every prediction you made during the primary and the general, and I consistently pointed out each and every flaw of your gloom and doom predictions. You'd almost be a Cassandra - NO ONE - believes you, except that you are never, EVER right.
Obama won despite your pitiful prognostication, and all you can do now is fantasize about a fresh GOP face that will somehow pop up on the scene in the next 2 years. Remember, Obama sprang on the scene in Aug 2004 and announced in Feb 2007. Where is your GOP Moses NOW?
Go back to your Fox Friends with your Fake diploma and leave us alone!
jp
Wow. So I'm not the only one that has this opinion of Earl Hutchinson. I didn't know he appeared on Fox since I never watch it, but it makes perfect sense. I think he's envious of President Obama. All through the campaign he had nothing but negative comments. For those who didn't read his past post's you might want to check some of them out. Although you may agree in principal with what he is saying in this post, you'll get a very different perspective as to where really he's coming from.
Trying to predict the future in politics is a fool's errand. Why is anybody in their right mind speculating on what the political landscape is going to be in three years? Two weeks is a long time in politics. And why don't we all wait until there is a final healthcare bill and make a judgement on it then, instead of assuming without any evidence that it will automatically dissatisfy everyone. That's not analysis, that's political guesswork best left to psychics. Not to mention a completely pessimistic outlook. I'm not a pessimist, and I'm not an optimist. I'm a realist, and know that any reform bill that comes out is going to be an improvement over our current system--which is failing America--with or without the public option--which I'd prefer. Can we just deal with the present for a little while? I'll wait till 2012 and see hows things stand after four years of President Obama's policies and their success or failure. I'm on cruise control till then.
Hear, hear! :) It's interesting to see that after I posted similar comments, I went on to see how many folks here agree with me. That's good! It's nice to hear some positive comments considering all the garbage that's been thrown around lately.
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