Back in February Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said with a perfectly straight face, "He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work." The "he" was perennial political gadfly Ralph Nader. Nader had just announced that he was jumping back in the presidential race. And though Obama deadpanned the Nader putdown, there had to be a snicker somewhere off camera about Nader's prospects.
The more charitable take on Nader is that the inveterate crusader is sincere and well-intentioned, but delusional in thinking that anybody will pay any attention to him this election. The less charitable is that he's an old, tired, egomaniacal pest who will say and do anything to get his mug in front of a camera. The one thing that's not said about Nader is that he could again be a spoiler. At first glance, the conventional wisdom that Nader is simply in it for Nader and that he will have zero impact on the election seems about right.
He's got no party, no money, virtually no press, and even has some competition from former Democratic Congressperson Cynthia McKinney. She's gotten a smidgen of media attention mostly because she's a former high profile, combative, and now renegade Democrat. That makes her a bit of a curiosity. Worse still for Nader he's got lots of enemies even among former friends and supporters, and they've got long memories. While there's still debate on how much real damage Nader did to Al Gore in 2000 in Florida, many still blame him for helping dump Bush in the White House in 2000. This is more than enough to relegate him to the barest of bare footnotes to Campaign 2008. The thought that a political nonentity and pariah could pose any threat to Obama is laughable.
But Nader could pose threat. Far from fading into a political black hole polls show him netting anywhere from four to six percent of the vote, and he's on the ballot in forty-five states. This alone wouldn't mean much except for two things. The election will be close and three of the forty-five states he's on the ballot in are Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. These are big, must win states for Obama and McCain. The barest shift in votes to Nader in one or more of the three states could cause trouble mostly for Obama. Though it's not certain that the near 100,000 votes that Nader got in Florida in 2000 would have all gone to Gore, it's simply inconceivable that the majority of them would have gone to Bush. In 2004, the election came down to Ohio. This time Nader didn't cause the slight shift away from Democrat John Kerry. The bump up Bush got that ultimately helped swing the state to him came from evangelical leaning black voters. The important thing in both cases is that Nader and the religious blacks pulled votes from Gore and Kerry; votes that ultimately hurt both Democrats.
Then there's the reason that Nader is still around and getting any poll numbers at all. There are many that still like and admire him, and like even more his anti-corporate, tweaking of the two parties. They fervently believe there is no substantive difference between the Democrats and Republicans. They don't see Obama as a real change guy but rather another deal making Beltway insider, who will say and do anything to get elected. More than a few left side Democrats and Independents have openly muttered their disappointment at Obama's flips, reversals and shifts on crucial policy issues. The message boards on some left political websites are filled with loud complaints that Nader is being frozen out by the media, and the standard complaint that's he's being frozen out of the upcoming debates.
Though Nader is the invisible man in the media, he's still doggedly trudging along the campaign highway talking up his populist message, drumming up financial support, and railing at what he calls the Democrats and GOP corporate laden policies.
This could touch a raw nerve with some voters who express disgust that the gap between Obama and McCain in their positions on issues from Iraq to the economy at times seem paper thin. It could stir some voters fed up with the top heavy parade of corporate officials, lobbyists, and Beltway establishment politicians who dominate Obama and McCain's campaigns to cast a protest ballot for him.
Still, the odds are that in this hyper-charged, history making election with much on the line for the Democrats in the end Nader will still be little more than an election curiosity. But then again he may not be, and the terrifying prospect of spoiler Nader in this case spoiling things for Obama is no joke.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).