Webb's VP "No Thanks" a Big Blow to Obama

Virginia Senator Jim Webb is as close to a made-in-heaven VP pick that presumptive Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama could ever hope for. He brought the age (over 60), regional (Virginia), racial (white), and political philosophy (centrist to conservative) balance to the Democratic ticket. But even more important than the much touted ticket balance that presidential candidates absolutely demand of a VP pick, he is the walking, talking, and voting example that Obama needs to parry Republican rival John McCain's biggest attack point against him and that's Obama's razor thin to non-existent credentials as a tough guy on national security.

But just as important as that, he would give Obama what he desperately needs and that's a credible, defense credentialed, white male running mate, who can shave off some of the vote edge that white males traditionally give GOP presidential candidates and presidents, Bill Clinton not accepted.

Their vote has been a safe passage to the White House for GOP presidents, Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bush W. Without their solid backing in 2000, Democratic Presidential contender Al Gore would have easily won the White House, and the Florida vote debacle would have been a meaningless sideshow. In 2004, polls consistently showed that Bush W. would bag more than 60 percent of the white male vote in a head-to-head contest with any Democrat. In the South, the number soared to 70 percent.

Bill Clinton was not the exception to the white male voting Republican rule that many believe. Bush Sr. in 1992 and Republican challenger Bob Dole in 1996 got fewer white male votes than Reagan and Nixon. But those votes didn't go en masse to Clinton. A significant number went to insurgent presidential candidate Ross Perot in 1992. Pat Buchanan with his freewheeling shoot from the lip, hard right rants also appealed to many white males voters when he ran as an independent candidate in 2000. Clinton made up the GOP leaning white male gap by racking up phenomenal support from women voters.

Short time Democratic presidential contender Howard Dean spotted the reverse gender dilemma for Democrats. He quipped during the 2004 campaign that the Democrats must grab a bigger share of the Confederate flag-waving, pick-up truck, gun rack-displaying, white male vote. It brought howls of protests from other Democrats, but Dean got it right. A fairly solid white male vote in the South and the Heartland states for McCain will put Obama in a deep hole before the first vote card is ever punched in November. Webb would help make sure that didn't happen this election go-round.

Then there's the national security issue. Obama is not the first recent presidential candidate deemed a neophyte, if not hopelessly far behind on the learning curve, on the national security issue. Bush W. carried the same political albatross. To help toss it, he did the smart political thing and picked the older, experienced two stints Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney as his running mate. And as the saying goes the rest is history.

In the fall, McCain will relentlessly tout his credentials as the most experienced, knowledgeable, dependable, and resolute on national security and the war against terrorism. He will just as resolutely and aggressively hammer Obama as the one who would stumble badly in a national security crisis.

The polls back up McCain on the claim that he's far stronger on national security. A Pew Research Center poll in June found that nearly half of Americans still say that Obama is not tough enough on national security and McCain is. Though most voters still rank the economy as their number one worry, and that supposedly works to Obama's favor. Obama's number one worry, though, is still being outflanked by McCain on the issue of national security concerns.

Webb is an even better bet to shore up Obama's flank against McCain on the national defense issue than Cheney was for Bush. He is a former Navy officer and Vietnam veteran just as McCain. He won four military medals in Vietnam, and was wounded twice and has gotten awards from the American Legion and VFW. This record would help ward off any GOP independent committee (hit squad) below-the belt attacks on his military credentials. He's also a former Secretary of the Navy appointed by no less than Ronald Reagan when Webb was a Republican. His experience in a cabinet post in a conservative GOP administration would be a tough one for McCain to knock.

At least for now this is all a moot point. Webb seemed to slam the door for good on any run at the vice presidency with his seemingly unequivocal "no thanks" to Obama. But politics being politics, a no never completely means a no. Webb simply is too much of the trump card that Obama's needs in his political deck to play against McCain's national security trump card. Look for the behind closed doors overtures to Webb to continue. Obama needs him too badly.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).

Comments

[zann]

What's the news? Webb never wanted to be VP, and he wasn't made in heaven, and there are plenty of good alternatives. I always favored Gen. Clarke.

[JimR]

Wow, I actually agree with Earl here! Webb would have made a great running mate for Obama. He's got the military background, he's got credibility with the so-called "Appalachain" voters, and the fact that he used to be a Republican could only help the campaign. He would make the far left extremely nervous, but if you ask me, that's a sign he's the best pick.

[larry278]

This is yet another instance when most of the comments on Mr Hutchinson's blog are as well reasoned & interesting as the blog.

[SeanGardner]

Actually, now that The Iraqi Prime Minister is insisting on a time table for American withdrawal of American forces, I think it takes pressure off of Obama to pick someone with foreign policy credentials.

I still believe he can proceed with the best pick available, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.

[JimR]

I don't know, that's a pretty big leap, that it takes pressure off of Obama.

Sebelius? Ehhh. A woman of great accomplishment, yes, but I don't think she adds much to the ticket.

[truegreen]

Oh...pleas­e. Does Earl Ofar know Jim Webb has wrote sympathetically for the Confederate South? Does Earl Ofar know Jim Webb can be hot head? does Earl Ofar know Jim Webb has wrote extensively and graphically about his time in vietnam? No. No. No. Webb is a descent and honorable man but he would of been a thorn in the side of women and african american groups. There are plenty of qualified dem's other than Webb to Obama's VP.

[funnyguy]

Ponder for a moment what Jim Webb did not want to disclose and you will understand Webb's "withdrawal" is no "blow" to Obama, or anyone except perhaps Webb.

[liberalrebuttal]

Gimme a break. Has it dawned on anyone that it might really have something to with a certain little passage that Webb wrote in one of his books that almost ended his campaign until it was saved by the You Tube "Macaca Moment"? Remember ?

The part about a man picking up a little boy , turning him upside down and ..........­well, Google it.

Also, you don't think that with the sensitivity among Hillarys angry white female voters, the Republicans might try to use Webbs past position on Women in the Military against him ? Maybe those are the real reasons, but Webb is saying it's for a different reason.

[Doofus]

As much as the Obama/Webb combination might bring
many votes & add some power, it was always unlikely
that it could actually happen, as there are colossal
differences between the groups in the enormous
Demo family that support either man.

It would be good if those differences would be put
aside, but that in itself would be a huge undertaking.

Fortunately, there's still a pretty long list of 'possibles'.

[4real]

I think Joe Biden would be a great pick

[MBryant]

I liked Webb for awhile too. Southern men have been good for Dems (Carter, Clinton, Gore) and this one has military chops. But then I read the HuffPo piece interviewing George McGovern about Veep choices. McGovern said #1 - do no harm, don't choose someone who will hurt you #2 - do your job - select a Veep who can really govern - who would be a good President - #3 if you can do the fist two and find someone who can help you - do that too.

Think about it. In the election. The Veeps just don't matter. If the Veeps were running:
Quayle defeats Bentsen? Gore beats Kemp? Cheney beats Edwards and Lieberman?
In every case, the better campaigner, the better ticket balancer, the better candidate (at the time) lost.

Webb might be too much of a hot-head and too young and inexperienced for this. Obama should play it safe. If Kathleen Sibelius has no skeletons (and as a Dem behind the lines in Kansas it is likely any she has woud already be uncovered) go for Sibelius. Else pick one of the Senate suits like Biden...

Obama is better off without Webb.

BTW last poster, I like Clark too, but it ain't happening. Obama left him out to dry when he was swiftboated on the McCain command issue.

[CameronXTKY]

Mr. Hutchinson,

Two words:

Wesley Clark

[LisaJeanM]

Sorry to blow your theory about Jim Webb, Mr. Hutchinson, but the obvious fact is Webb was never under consideration. Senator Webb has a lot of personal baggage and a history of being misogynistic. He also has a thin resume as a politcian and is very ill-qualified to lend "experience" creds to a ticket.

Seems incredible to me that so many supposed political pundits think Webb was ever a serious contender for VP. Webb knows he was not, and is not, which is why he made his statement yesterday. He vainly wants to come off like he turned it down. But, that would require being asked, which he wasn't.

[sandtats]

My thoughts exactly, Lisa! Phooey, Mr. Hutchinson. This was Jim's given chance (by the campaign) to "bow out" gracefully and remove any unneeded speculation, as he was NEVER going to be asked for precisely the reasons Lisa mentioned. He's a true maverick, a plus in the Senate, but a loose cannon; this and his history of misogyny, i.e. his writings, would be a huge negative for the campaign. Sorry Mr. Hutchinson, you're just plain wrong.

[arthuride]

Webb knows what a flip-flop is. Why would he even consider being a VP for Obama. Webb has too many scruples. Obama has none: as with his current endorsement of taking the wire-tapping phone companies off the hook of potential lawsuits to telling women that mental distress is not a reason for an abortion.

I had decided to support Obama after Hillary pulled out. I will now flip-flop and rescind that decision. I need to see more susbtance.

[lanrameau]

Webb also voting for immunity for the phone companies.

[arthuride]

As usual, Earl Ofari Hutchison is right. The tragedy is that Obama has alienated so many people that men such as Webb have difficulty considering even to run with the most junior senator from Illinois. And the fact that Obama flip-flopped on FISA and allowed the spy network of big telephone companies to be granted immunity from litigation and his new-found desire to protect the fetus and deny women their right to an abortion is driving even more people from the Obama camp.

While I had been a strong Hillary supporter, reality told me that Obama would have been a better choice than McCain. But the closer it comes to the nomination process in Denver, the more doubts I have that he would win in November. Fortunately, the nomination is not yet Obama's and with more problems before the convention, it is ill-timed to consider that Obama will, in deed, win the nomination. More careful consideration of the issues rising daily about Obama will make delegates and superdelegates think twice before casting their votes, and Hillary supporters (if she is not the VP nominee) will leave the Democratic Party in droves--costing the Democrats not just the White House but the Senate, Congress, and Supreme Court. It is becoming increasingly appartent that Obama is an American Tragedy.

[JimR]

What color is the sky in your world?

[S1m0n]

Your endorsement is just the thing I need to breathe a sigh of relief at the thought of a bullet well dodged.