White Democrats are Bigger Threat to Obama than McCain

The much talked about recent AP-Yahoo poll found that many whites harbor vicious and vile stereotypes about blacks. This is hardly the revelation of the ages. Nor is its finding that hidden and not so hidden bias toward blacks can potentially torpedo Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama's White House run. What is eye catching in the poll is the finding that many white Democrats are just as biased if not more so than many Republicans. If Obama sinks, they, not Republican rival John McCain will sink him.

Vote and party jumping based solely on race is nothing new. In a 2006 study in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, a Yale political economist found that white Republicans are 25 percentage points more likely to cross over and vote for a Democratic senatorial candidate against a black Republican foe. The study also found that in the near twenty year stretch from 1982 to 2000, when the GOP candidate was black, the greater majority of white independent voters backed the white candidate. There's nothing especially surprising about that since it's virtually an article of racial faith among blacks, liberal Democrats, and political pundits that overt and subtle racial bias is almost exclusively the monopoly of Republicans. That's a politically correct delusion.

The study found that many Democrats were just as guilty of dubious Election Day color-blindness as Republicans and independents; maybe even more so. In House races, the study found that Democrats were nearly 40 percent less likely to back a black Democratic candidate than a white Democrat. The shift by conservative-centrist white Democrats to like politic GOP presidential contenders is a staple in recent American politics. The GOP scorecard in White House wins would not be seven to three over the Democrats since Richard Nixon's win in 1968 if conservative white Democrats had not consistently shifted their vote to the GOP. Democrats have always had a gaping disparity in registered voters over Republicans. In 2004 there were ten million more registered Democrats than Republicans. On paper, the gaping disparity in numbers should guarantee a cake to the White House by any Democrat. Obviously, that hasn't been the case.

1964 GOP presidential contender Barry Goldwater was the first to spot the opening for the GOP among disaffected white conservative Democrats. His naked states rights pitch and rail against big government and welfare sparked the first wave of white Southern Democrats to the GOP. Nixon exploited the opening even more in 1968. His appeal for law and order, bash of permissiveness, and crackdown on ghetto rioters sparked more flight from the Democrats by blue-collar ethnics. Reagan widened the breach even more among Democrats. Fed up with bussing, affirmative action, and crime (always seen as committed by African-Americans) droves of white Democrats flocked to the GOP in even bigger numbers.

The first big hint that conservative white Democrats could cause problems for Obama came in the Democratic primary in Ohio. Hillary Clinton beat out Obama in the primary and she did it mainly with white votes. But that wasn't the whole story. Nearly one quarter of whites in Ohio flatly said race did matter in voting. Presumably that meant that they would not vote for a black candidate no matter how politically attractive or competent he was.

An even bigger hint of Obama's race problem came in Pennsylvania's primary. The voter demographics in the state perfectly matched those in Ohio. A huge percent of Pennsylvania voters are blue collar, anti-big government, socially conservative, pro defense, and intently patriotic, and there's a tormenting history of a racial polarization in the state. Take the state's two big, racially diverse cities out of the vote equation, and Pennsylvania would be rock solid red state Republican. Clinton, of course, trounced Obama in the state. The same percent of white Democrats as in Ohio told exit poll interviewers that they would not back Obama. Race was the prime reason. Clinton racked up victories in the West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota primaries. Again, a significant percent of white Democrats said they would not back Obama, and the reason was race. This time many white Democrats made no effort to hide their racial animus toward Obama.

In the AP-Yahoo poll one third of white Democrats said they had negative views of blacks. "Violent," "lazy," "boastful," "complaining" and "irresponsible" were the terms many used to describe blacks. More than 40 percent of them said they would not back Obama. This is nearly identical to the number who say they will not back him in the key Democratic primaries.

Just how many of them actually mean what they say is a big question mark. But if past history of party switching by white Democrats holds up the odds are that more than a few mean it. They'd jump the Democratic Party ship even if race wasn't the obvious issue. But it is, and that could spell trouble for Obama on Election Day.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[chamberslee]

It is simple for many whites to say “get over it”; they do not have to think about race daily when applying for a job, interviewing for a job, interacting in the workplace (and higher education), renting or by buying a house, shopping, seeking medical services and so on. Not having to consider race is one of the privileges of being white in a white dominated society.
This is not to say all white are racist; they are NOT. But the majority has racist tendencies that are unconscious. This is due to the lack of interaction between whites and blacks. Most whites know of blacks only through the media, which uses the most sensationalized images of people of color to increase viewership and ratings. As long as that is the accepted norm, many whites will continue to allow the color of the candidate’s skin to determine the outcome of the presidential election.

The fear is that a black president would give too many rights and services to blacks, and whites will no longer have a monopoly on everything vital -- white supremacy.

To use Obama's metaphor, "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig." That is true of race in America, also.

[chamberslee]

To paraphrase Bill Maher, there is a reason why white presidential candidates have won 43 times while black candidates have won zero. I am amazed at how closed-minded some are when it comes to the discussion of race in America. It is now a taboo subject for many whites and some blacks. How dare we discuss racism in America. We now use the "race card" construct to minimize anyone who dares injects race into a serious discussion­--regardle­ss of how factual and pertinent race is to the discussion.

The fact is that race will play a significant role in the presidential race. Refusing to discuss it will not negate this fact. Negative stereotypes of blacks are ingrained in the minds of many whites and no amount of achievement by a black candidate will change their view. Many whites cannot separate the negative actions of a few blacks from those who are hardworking, law-abiding citizens who want the same things whites want: good education, affordable health care, affordable and healthy housing, safe neighborhoods and affordable college education. Instead, they see the actions of a few as a representation of the entire population. My education and hard work mean nothing. I am BLACK first and nothing else matters as much. Education and financial achievement does not enter into the equation. Obama is still BLACK.

[Justsaynodeal]

There has been attempts to have a meaningful discussion about one's feelings about race on this forum. and HP sekoffs any effort to do that, I know because I have tried in the past to post some of my feelings about race. I don't know how many others have had their posts sent to the same purgatory where mine go, but I know race is the big elephant in the room and has been since this election cycle has begun. Only if posts about feelings, and I am not talking about abusive language to vent "racism.", but legitimate feelings about the issue are able to be discussed will we get some resolution of these feelings.

Ignoring the problem does not make it go away.

[pottery]

EOF, I'm not buying this latest revelation as anything new in the Democratic party, or this election season. You yourself spent months parroting every rather thin reason as for why we should question Obama's fitness for office, on behalf of HRC. You yourself used these assertions on behalf of HRC, the mere existence of which justified selecting her over Obama. You helped carry their water, and exacerbate the ripple effect in the primaries that carried over into the general.

You should also reflect on the strategy of Obama's campaign from it's inception: A new coalition. A 50 state strategy. An appeal to the good sense and judgement of Independents and Liberal or Moderate Republicans. The Obama campaign is not blind, or deaf to political reality. In other words EOF, there's no reason Americans should still, in 2008, be held hostage to a diminishing minority of people who can't, or won't see beyond skin color and judge his character and ideas over his skin color. I think the glass is half full.

[JoePalooka]

Earl, I think you (and others) are overstating this whole racism thing. It almost appears as though an excuse is already being formed by the Dems for Obama's anticipated defeat in November.

[Justsaynodeal]

Oh they already have that excuse and it includes: 1. blaming the Clinton's, and 2, blaming racism. Way down on the list is inexperience and unqualified.

[chamberslee]

Is Palin's inexperience and lack of qualification "way down on the list?" They must be. T

There is always a double standard. Palin's teenage daughter gets pregnant and there is no outrage from the conservatives--the moral majority, supposedly. If that had been Obama's daughter, he would not be able to escape the verbal attacks from the religious right. They would have brought out every statistic on the ostensible black pathology and teen pregnancy. Is race a factor? I do not know, but it is hypocrisy--that I am sure of.

[GrainOSand]

What color is the death of a nation? If a house is on fire is it better to have all occupants assist in putting out the fire, or is it better to have some occupants trying to use other occupants as kindling for an even bigger fire? This latter reference is for those who would continue to use the subject of race to point a finger or as distraction void of substance or real meaning -- to shield a hoax.

What is the ethnicity of freedom and is its color not the color of blood, sweat, and tears. Barack Obama’s family gave blood, sweat, and tears for this country. He is American and any who question that are traitors to the espoused American idea. If the desire is to re-fight the Civil War then let us not dilly-dally, let us get to it. Let us destroy the nation once again because some are having issues with their hearts and minds. But if the majority understands that the color of a mans’ skin is no indication of his worth, his value, and his ability, and that Barack Obama is not a dark horse candidate, he is not a messiah, he represents a crossroads for the leadership question in America. The differences between him and John McCain concern not color of face but of character. They are differences of political tone where McCain strikes a tired discordant note at a time demanding harmony and a reprise of fundamental democracy.

[BigBen]

I thought that Obama would put Hillary on the ticket to fight that prejudice but no; he went with the white male so good luck.

[Aaror]

The problem with Clinton is that she brings high negatives, too high for Obama to win with. She also brings out the Republican base, and before Palin Obama was hoping for a Dem landslide to help him in congress. That said, he probably could have used a female candidate, perhaps the Governor of Kansas...
But Biden was supposed to be best at winning the "Hillary voters," so Obama chose him...

[arthuride]

Obama will lose with Biden. He appeals only to banking interests. Hillary, alone, could help Obama win, but now without her, he will lose the race by a wide margin.

[Justsaynodeal]

You have drunk the koolaid and swallowed the propaganda the GOP's circulate about the Clinton's. There is no way in h*ll they wanted to run against Hillary. There only chance was to have 0bama head the ticket.

[Faith101]

Let us not give more attention or credence for this line of conversation than need be. It is a distraction. We will know soon enough on Nov 5 how america thinks. In the mean time, we've got work to do. Unemployment, Uninsured, Being Broke don't have a color. Obama is for all people, his target is the middle class, so let's work to get him elected. He never used race as an issue for him. We don't need to start now.

[GrainOSand]

Runners can become winded, they can hit a mental wall, and their knees can tremble, their legs can cramp up and make them fall. Running is a pure sport. It consists of a runner’s body and the elements. The condition of ones’ body is no doubt a huge factor in adhering to a regular running schedule. You can prepare your body for the rigors of the road. What of the mind of a runner that hits the wall of the realization of racism within the stadium, what does such a runner do? What of a runner whose fitness is without question yet hurdles appear out of nowhere to stop his progress while opponents ride in roadsters of media collusion, negligence, and slant?

The greatest sports story I ever witnessed was the story of a regular father who with his paraplegic son in tow went the distance in a triathlon. The heart determines the athlete. As George C. Scott said in the Hustler, “Everybody’s got talent”.” But character...” not everybody has character. It is safe to say John McCain has no character. It is safe to say that parts of America in their racism in these days demanding unity have no legitimate character, nor a true concern for country.

The man swam two miles, biked a hundred miles, and ran twenty-six miles. He finished dead last and in so doing, he won for himself and his son -- Keep running Mr. Obama, it is how you run that inspires.

[sytgrl]

Anybody who knows some basics about polls knows that that poll is suspect, and AP's write-up on it was way off base. Though it does measure racial biases quite well, AP jumped to the conclusion that those biases would determine how people vote in the presidential election. That's Polls 101; you have to prove that A actually will have an effect on B (the concept of causality). In fact, when asked directly if electing the first African American president would change the way they would vote, about 82% of the voters (84% of whites) said it would not. The website www.fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting write-up on this subject.

[wasap1]

The more you talk about race, the more you hurt the Obama-Biden ticket.

The recent "AP"-article is part of a scheme by the repubs to inject race into the campaign. The repubs know that the more race is discussed, the greater their chances of winning in NOVEMBER.

[mommadona]

A little tale.

My son was wedded to his diapers.
Just wasn't in to using that seat on the toilet.
Wasn't worth his time.

One day, we were in the park, and 'nature called'.
He was laying there, naked, waiting for mom to finish up.
A little girl maybe a year or so older walked up.

As she observed the ritual changing, she asked my son point blank:

"Are you still wearing those?"

They looked each other in the eye. Without another word, the girl walked on.

My son went home and never wore a diaper again.

Peer pressure.
Priceless.

[tvhearn]

Wow Earl, how long did it take you to come up with that observation? Racism is part of the fabric of America. It will always exist. I don't quite understand what point you're trying to make. Of course Obama and everyone else living in this country is aware of the bigotry and racism that will have some impact on the race; however, should that stop Obama or hinder his resolve pertaining to his campaign? I think you're preaching to the choir here. I feel that Obama's campaign and his supports should not dwell on those facts, but continue to campaign with diligence and perserverance. I respect your comments, but it seems a bit conterproductive.

[BigBen]

White democrats threat to Obama.Black candidate threat to Democratic party! But you would not listen to Bill Clinton when he said that.So why listen to you now?Sad,sad,sad.

[dwt]

Racism, ignorance, xenophobia, and downright stupidity walk hand in hand.

And, given the staggering array of disasters which confront this country after 8 years of Bush and Republican malfeasance, are the only possible explanations that Obama is not polling at least 10 points ahead of the bumbling fraud, McCain.

[jeanrenoir]

The Reagan Democrats have been stupidly doing the bidding of their Republican exploiters for almost three decades now. And they've been suffering for it economically year after year, while remaining too clueless to change their voting pattern. In the process, these clowns have been the margin of victory for all of our lousy Republican leaders, who, along with the triangulating Whiz Kid Clinton, have brought us to the economic abyss we face today. I'm truly angry at these moronic Reagan Democrats for all their stupidity has caused to happen to our country under the disastrous leaders they keep electing (W TWICE!!). If these fools actually elect McCain, primarily because they are such racists, McCain will destroy them economically once and for all, and they will get what they deserve for destroying the country itself by electing such terrible leaders, of whom McCain promises to be the very worst.

[CitizenE]

Ya think Earl? I was under the impression that the elephant in the room has been there from the beginning. That is what is so amazing about Obama's lead right now. Racism, Sarah Palin, the sphinx of tax breaks, the waranoia--all that--and yet, Barack Obama will be our next President. So roll up your sleeves Earl, it's time to get working. No more of this Chicken Little stuff allowed. History is in the offing.