iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Earl Ofari Hutchinson

GET UPDATES FROM Earl Ofari Hutchinson
 

America's Non-White Majority Won't Remake the GOP Anytime Soon

Posted: 05/18/2012 12:53 pm

The latest census report confirms what has been an unstoppable trend for the past two decades. That America is well on the way to becoming a majority non-white nation. With fewer white babies being born than Latino, black and Asian babies, that may come a lot sooner than the targeted year of 2042, which demographers repeatedly cite. The ethnic remake of America is already having a huge impact on land use, housing, social services, schools, and industries in countless small and medium sized towns, and rural areas that since the country's birth have been exclusively or predominantly white.

The GOP knows that. And the brutal reality for the party is that more minorities in America's population will continue to translate into bigger numbers for the Democrats at the polls. That pattern has been locked in place for the past decade. This is a prime reason that President Obama is President Obama. He was the biggest beneficiary of the happy confluence of demographics and politics in 2008 when an off-the-chart number of black, youth and Latino voters marched to the polls to help put him over the top in the handful of battleground states that for the past three decades have either voted solid GOP in the presidential race or tilted toward the GOP.

Former President Bush grasped the significance of the mounting non-white numbers and the potential peril to the GOP in 2000. He briefly flirted with the notion of overhauling the GOP and making it an ethnically diverse big tent party. He schmoozed, pandered to and courted Latino voters and organizations. It worked. He ramped up the number of Latino voters and that helped his election bid in several states. In 2004, he repeated the tact with Latino and black evangelicals. It worked again. He got more than 40 percent of the Latino vote, and a small but significant bump up in the black vote. This was just enough to tip Ohio, Florida and the White House back to him.

But Bush's diversity pitch was an aberration. The GOP quickly reverted back to form in the 2008 presidential election and especially the 2010 national elections. It ramped up its standard attack on big government, tax and spend Democrats, and screamed for a scrap or gut of entitlement programs, and tough military preparedness. Its theme pitch was the old wink and nod mix of code terms to rile the racial juices of conservative whites who still see government and Democrats as synonymous with pandering to minorities.

The steady uptick in minority population numbers, if anything, will push the GOP to step up its relentless campaign to beat back the ethnic tide from the voting booth as long as possible. Through the front door the GOP will continue to pitch government as evil to its base in the heartland and the Deep South states, with subtle and in some cases open race baiting of Obama to drive home the point. Through the back door it will do everything it can in key states to dampen the minority vote. In 2008 in Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina, the GOP's purge of thousands from voter rolls illegally drew a flurry of media and public attention. The crude, dubious, if not outright illegal, stuff to suppress votes such as the absence of polling places in minority neighborhoods, ballot and vote machine irregularities, using lists of foreclosed homes to challenge voter's residences, rigid time lines for filing voter applications, the lack of information, misinformation or deliberate disinformation about voter registration forms and materials has also drawn plenty of media attention over the years.

Armed with a Supreme Court decision in 2008 upholding Indiana's rigid voter registration law which requires government-issued identification, such as a driver's license, a passport, or a state or military ID card, the GOP quickly swung into action in other states and required rigid proof of identity. In every state, where the GOP has taken over majority control of state legislatures and the governorships, it has or tried to quickly impose the most restrictive voting requirement it can legally get away with in these states.

Then there's the Help America Vote Act passed in 2002. It's supposed to help streamline the voting process and make registration easier. But the act is a two-edged sword in that it permits voters who have been rejected for borderline legal reasons to cast provisional ballots. However, these ballots are set aside and it could take days or weeks, not to mention court and legal challenges before determinations can be made about which ballots can be counted. There will be thousands of these ballots and the overwhelming majority will be from black and Hispanic voters.

The GOP will pay faint lip service to diversity, and will showpiece a handful of black conservatives and Latino GOP state elected officials to make the point that it's serious about diversity in the party. No one is fooled. The party's actions and record are stark proof that it will do everything it can to stay a white man's party as long as it can. More non-white babies being born than white babies in America won't change that.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on American Urban Radio Network. He is the author of How Obama Governed: The Year of Crisis and Challenge. He is an associate editor of New America Media. He is host of the weekly Hutchinson Report Newsmaker Hour heard weekly on the nationally network broadcast Hutchinson Newsmaker Network.
Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: http://twitter.com/earlhutchinson

 

Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: www.twitter.com/earlhutchinson

FOLLOW POLITICS
 
 
  • Comments
  • 36
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2  Next ›  Last »  (2 total)
07:39 PM on 05/24/2012
perhaps the numbers will be adjusted.
photo
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Puller58
Man of Mystery
01:03 AM on 05/24/2012
As much of a crank as Pat Buchanan is, he asked a very interesting question. With the inclination of immigrants to gravitate to government programs that Democrats offer, why would the GOP encourage immigration if it will lead to the end of the GOP?
photo
Alux
Pull the Wool Over Your Own Eyes!
08:34 AM on 05/23/2012
Guess what I discovered today? I am Black, Native American (Cherokee AND Choctaw, thank you very much) and Hispanic. Oh, and white.

Wow! If the test is 1/32nd anyway. That's what Elizabeth Warren thinks.

I regret all those years of missing out on minority advancement programs and affirmative action. No more!

Next time I hear someone call, "Hey, Homes" I am saying, "Yo."

"Esse" - that would be me now!

All of us, at least those of us whose families can trace about five generations in America, can claim we are minorites.

Next time those lay-off notices go out, I have to choose whether to go straight to the NAACP or the La Raza offices and get them to file my discrimination suit.

Elizabeth Warren did more for minority advancement in a single day that Martin Luther King did in his whole life!

Of course, that means all this rubbish about the census and race is just . . . rubbish.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
earthinretrograde
Information Is Power
04:59 PM on 05/22/2012
Whites are already a minority in California, Texas, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
01:50 AM on 05/22/2012
Looks like the Latino immigration is having a big effect on the black community:

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_1_blacks_and_immigration.html

My favorite part of the article:

"When Earl Ofari Hutchinson, a columnist for BlackNews.com, wrote a series of pieces sympathizing with illegal aliens, the volume of hostile mail that poured in from other blacks shocked him."

Is that true Mr. Hutchinson?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mjcc1987
You can't have everything. Where would you put it?
09:46 PM on 05/23/2012
NOM? Is that you Maggie? Race baiting?
hagenjr
Shovel ready freeborn son of the Republic
12:41 AM on 05/28/2012
The rising tensions between African-Americans and Hispanics render the old hopes of a black-brown coalition chimerical. “In studies,” says Frank Morris, former dean of graduate studies at Morgan State University, “immigrants actually tend to say they think of themselves more like whites in America than like blacks, which is one reason why a black-brown political coalition has never existed anywhere except in the minds of black political leaders.” Morris, the former head of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, says that elected black leaders have sought to join forces with Hispanics not out of true common concerns but out of fear that demographic changes will leave them vulnerable to challenges from Latino pols. A research paper published by Morris and University of Maryland professor James Gimpel estimates that Hispanic candidates could win as many as six seats that blacks currently hold in the U.S. House of Representatives. Latino politicians understand that their own gains will come largely at the expense of black candidates. When black California congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald died suddenly last year, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus targeted her seat, realizing that her district was 57 percent Latino. The effort, which angered members of the Congressional Black Caucus, failed. But Hispanic congressman Joe Baca justified it: “It’s time we have one of our own that speaks on our behalf,” he said.
photo
TexasTreader
Fluffy, the yard dog
12:43 AM on 05/22/2012
Another point to remember is that Latinos and Asians still broadly consider it advantageous to marry into white families and whites welcome them. My own Latino in-laws are fiercely patriotic and we're very close. They took the steps to be one citizens and have no tolerance for the line jumpers.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bonnie Larkin
Oathkeeper AND NRA member
01:28 PM on 05/22/2012
very true - people that don't live here in the border states fail to realize that there is not the extent of racism here as they would love the rest of the country to believe.
It is the illegals that offend all the legals - as we all pay for their upkeep - money is green - not brown or white.
12:30 AM on 05/24/2012
Go away.
photo
TexasTreader
Fluffy, the yard dog
12:38 AM on 05/22/2012
Earl, your equation is incomplete. Even as non whites are becoming a majority, race is becoming less of as issue. Also, the political parties are changing. Between the Tea Party on the right and anarchists on the left, political interest groups are becoming more fragmented. Face it. You're a dinosaur.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:54 PM on 05/21/2012
Mr. Hutchinson omitted another important statistic in rising minority numbers and that is in crime. Black and Latino communities are basically battle zones. With the dwindling number of White tax payers, who will be paying for all of the social services the minority communities demand? Latinos will out number the Blacks and Asians. The future looks very bleak.. but welcome to Mexico, the land of drug lords, corruption and squalor.
hroark314
The handle says it all, doesn't it?
12:58 PM on 05/21/2012
As minorities make up an ever larger portion of American, they'll probably become more conservative as they move up the economic food chain - just like Catholics did. I don't understand why Democrats seem to believe that political affiliation is genetic.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
S Alleyne
02:58 PM on 05/21/2012
Highly unlikely! Catholics are not minority of any kind! I just saw a major study highlight that noted "Asians and Hispanics boostering the white majority in America" a kind of oxymoronic bs trick header to obfuscate the readership, who may not be able to read but rely on all the I-tools for their knowledge.
hroark314
The handle says it all, doesn't it?
03:14 PM on 05/21/2012
Catholics used to be a minority (immigration increased around the turn of the century). Initially, we (I guess I should say 'we' because I a Catholic) voted heavily Democrat but over time as our education and wealth grew, we began to lean more to the right. Most Catholics still vote Democrat, but the preference is far less pronounced now than it was 30 years ago.
 
By the way, while Catholicism is the largest religion in America, there are still more Protestants than Catholics in this country.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mailman
08:10 AM on 05/22/2012
They believe that because blacks will stay in the same situation they always have and the democrats will know that they won't vote GOP, so what's changed for them in the last 40 years, hardly nothing. Good example, look at the Cubans they don't follow the victim card and vote more conservative and have done quite well for themselves and they are not led by the democrats.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BiggpussJr
pissin em off one comment at a time.
10:55 AM on 05/21/2012
I think that by 2014 there would be no need for race, because we are ALL suffering black, white brown, it doesnt matter. The have's have and have not's have less. Its a economic thing not a race thing.
07:32 AM on 05/21/2012
"""The ethnic remake of America is already having a huge impact on land use, housing, social services, schools, and industries in countless small and medium sized towns""""

These ethnic races, hopefully, will have to find a way to support themselves when the entire country is bankrupt.
photo
mctrap
The neuroplasticity of the sheeple is mind bending
12:53 PM on 05/20/2012
I can guarantee you that if the 1% were only composed of blacks/hispanics and the whites were the 99%ers, nothing would change with the political dynamics you speak of. The real issue is human nature. Not black/white/hispanic/asian ect. demographics.

The 1%, irrespectful of race, have no better control over human nature than anyone else. It has always been, and it will always be about the haves and have-nots in society. Skin color makes no difference. Riches breed selfishness and greed at the expense of empathy and compassion. This part of human nature doesn't naturally select or discriminate as to color.

Follow the money. Look at Obama's cabinet selections. And then, tell me you haven't been the one who was fooled. No doubt Obama is the lessor of the two evils here, but the point is, it's a rigged system that is in place to support the corporatocracy. If you think all that money that is and will be needed to elect Obama is going to be used to support a "yes we can," agenda of the 99%ers, well better think again.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
11:19 AM on 05/20/2012
When one considers the current social and political attitude of the Republican Party it is becoming more obvious that they will not admit that they are becomming less relevant asa time goes on. Their eventual destination will be a little group of old time, rich white men sitting in expensive nursing homes counting their billions of dollars while the world evolves away from them.
Of course there will be a few select people of color who will dissapear along with them. What is the common thread among this strange lil group? You guess.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Alex0393
Are you people for real?
12:35 AM on 05/21/2012
The comment about the few select people of color disappearing with them says alot about you Mr. Mangum. You imply because they're political beliefs differ than yours that they are irrelevent while at the same time implying all people of color should be something besides republicans. Their life's experience has taught them the republican party is right for them and you say they're wrong. Should everyone base their opinions on your life's experience? As a black man do you, like the author, assume the black race speaks with one mind instead of being individuals? I would rather try and fail as a republican than stand on the sidelines with the rest of the democrats being critical of any person of color who tries to better themselves by accusing them of trying to be white. How abou trying to be an American?
02:45 AM on 05/22/2012
I would agree but as we try to just be "Americans" we have to read posts such as the one above that equates Black and Latino neighborhoods with crime and only white people as tax payers. It is interesting that the vast majority of people of color reject the Republican party, does that mean there's something wrong with us or them? 95% of us are wrong?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
madupont
Let's just say, I'm from Wisconsin.
10:59 AM on 05/20/2012
I feel that I will have to return to my previous residential location in order to continue voting where, come to think of it, I never had to present identification to vote once I had been registered in Princeton Boro.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
madupont
Let's just say, I'm from Wisconsin.
10:48 AM on 05/20/2012
"In 2008 in Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina, the GOP's purge of thousands from voter rolls illegally", I thought you ought to have entered what occurred with John Kerry running opposite "W." Here in Pennsylvania, the rolls were perused for veterans; and the same veteran( who had always driven me to the polling place because I have a vision problem and do not drive)was told that he had not voted in a federal election. I heard this because I was standing next to him as I always do in the line. He was told to make a provisional vote (on paper) and I noticed that the paper votes did not enter a closed much less locked container. It took me awhile to understand how a registrar could cull votes of veterans of specific wars in order to achieve this loss of Democratic votes to benefit the GOP. I have heard that our one and only Democrat Senator( in the time that I came to live here following the Bush use of the tax on inventory, when we were directed to apply for jobs in Pennsylvania 15 years ago) is planning to drop out of that position. Now they are attempting a variation on the rip-off by claiming my non-driver-identification, which was issued to me with a claim that I would not have to renew it because of my age and that my status would not change,is being reconsidered as necessary for I.D.