One of the first things you hear when attending a political seminar at the USC Unruh Institute of Politics or at something like the American Associated of Political Consultants Annual Conference -- as I have in past years -- is that political people are the abnormal ones. The average Angeleno does not live, eat and breathe politics. They have lives to live, practices to take their kids to and friends to hang out with during GOTV (Get Out The Vote) weekends. Partisanship is the last thing on their minds, and it is probably easy to understand why the political duopoly of Democrats and Republicans is crumbling in California while registration for independents or DTS (Decline to State) voters climbs.
At a recent Coro CrossTalk at Los Angeles City Hall, veteran Republican pundit and California Target Book publisher Allan Hoffenblum noted that the biggest 2010 game-changer was the passage of Open Primaries because of its potential to dilute the power of the political parties. Candidates for the state office will now run in races much like the City of Los Angeles has done for decades: in a non-partisan manner. Aspirants can still identify themselves according to their party but the voting public will see the top two vote-getters move forward rather than just the chosen partisan candidate. It appears to be in keeping with the public's appetite for registering independent or DTS -- or, to borrow President Warren Harding's campaign theme when our city had just under 600,000 Angelenos, "a return to normalcy."
O.C. Register political reporter Martin Wisckol projects that if trends continue, independents will surpass Republicans in registration by 28% to 26% (with Democrats holding onto 40%) by 2022. Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters pulls from the new Secretary of State Report on Registration to emphasize that "both major political parties lost a bit of their voter registration shares as the ranks of California's political independents continued to expand." Given the surge in population growth among Asians and Latinos according to the latest Census numbers, it is cause for concern, especially for Republicans, as Jim Brulte pointed out in a recent media interview:
Meg Whitman carried the white vote, but the white vote is an ever-shrinking component of the electorate. However right and principled Republicans think their position on legal and illegal immigration is the articulation of that position comes off as insensitive and uncaring to the fastest growing voter group [Latinos] in the state of California.
The Daily News' Rick Orlov also noted that among California's 17.1 million registered voters, DTS voters have reached an all-time high of 20.4% or four million people. In Los Angeles County -- which accounts for roughly 40% of the state vote each statewide contest -- the number has inched up to 20.9%. People tend to vote more in presidential election years, which has traditionally meant more partisan voters turning out at the polls. But as California Crackup co-author Mark Paul told me in a Facebook exchange a few days ago:
With the abolition of party primaries in California, registering for a party confers no advantage to a voter. Party matters only in presidential primaries. If both parties allow DTS voters to participate in those elections, voters would be silly to register D or R anymore.
Looking at the numbers, 2010 seems to be a return to nonpartisan normalcy. Many would probably agree with that assessment. There is some evidence, however, that voters are as partisan as ever and that most DTS voters reliably vote in a certain "D" or "R" column. Paul shares the example of San Francisco. "They have more DTS voters than any other county and yet their voting patterns have stayed the same for quite a while." Nevertheless, if former president Bill Clinton is right in saying that all elections are about the future, then the deciders will include an ever-growing number of independents. Even for the abnormal among us, this may be welcome news.