It is unlikely that the extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen will repeat his 2002 upset to make it to the second round of the upcoming French presidential elections. But he is surely smiling on the inside, because this year everyone is running on his platform. "National Identity", which used to be code in France for white, Catholic, anti-immigration, anti-European nationalists, has broadened into a long-overdue discussion about what it means to be French.
France is not a single-issue country - there is nothing like abortion or the NRA to divide the electorate into neat political packages. The French vote for their 'idea' of France, and that idea has become increasing muddled, even a bit desperate. The extreme right has always offered the comforting, if deluded, vision of France as a great power, its traditions, statesman and cuisine above the fray. But the rest of France is struggling to find a place in the world, struggling with the gradual transformation of a sluggish society. The question the electorate wants answered: How can the French keep up in the world, and stay French doing it?
Ségolène Royal, the Socialist candidate, wants a warmer, fuzzier France. Royal's France is one of teachers and civil servants, middle income workers as well as professionals guilty about their earnings and lack of social activism. Praised early on for her advocacy of "participatory democracy", she is rapidly turning from fresh face to empty shell. Although she fought an admirable campaign against the old boys of her party to gain the nomination, her strategy since then has been one of smiling avoidance. Her insistence that her ideas are those of the mythical "French people" is starting to sound like she has nothing to say. Her manifesto - 100 points for a "stronger, fairer" France (including a 10,000 Euro interest-free loan to every young person) reads like so many Mickey Mouse band-aids, designed to patch up the paper-cuts while the patient is bleeding out. Very few people expect a candidate to have thoughts of their own these days, but her advisors seem to have left her remarkably unprepared. She is cagey with the press (when she shows up) and her gaffes on the Chinese judicial system and Hezbollah have left many wary of the idea of 'Ségo' as the international face of France.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the leader of Chirac's right-wing party, wants to make France a new kind of leader - get rid of the 35-hour work week, and make sure France can compete. He is the friend of big business and law and order. It is easy to see why 'Sarko' might be appealing to an American audience. Energetic, ambitious and autocratic, he's our breed of political animal, and that's exactly what the French find most worrying about him. (Sarkozy has bit of Rudy Giuliani in him - sure the streets are cleaner, but where did he put all those homeless people?) Sarkozy has pursued the presidency with a single-mindedness that many find distasteful. He has been adept at stealing arguments from both the left and the far right. His intention to create a "Ministry of Immigration and National Identity" sounds particularly Orwellian. Yet there are glimmers of the kind of rhetoric Americans understand. He says he wants to make work a source of pride and profit, instead of something people do between vacations. He wants progress, American-style, which seems like a good idea until you see the Starbucks at the Louvre.
François Bayrou, the center-right candidate, is the monkey in the middle. Over the last two months he has successfully triangulated the race. He is vehemently pro-European, prepared to appoint ministers from other parties, and the only one to question how we might pay for the all the goodies being offered by the other candidates. His ideal France is a mix of rural sensibilities (he grew up on a farm and raises horses), and small business pragmatism. Although he is holding a strong third place in the polls, it is surprisingly difficult to suggest to the French that they give up their party nametags and vote for someone who sounds reasonable. Bayrou is currently attracting attention among young professionals, who feel hog-tied by France's business practices, are disappointed in Royal's rhetoric and suspect Sarkozy of closet fascism.
On Sunday, there's a chance that Bayrou could unseat one of the top candidates for a place in the second round. If he succeeds, it will be in part because of the search for a "National Identity". Of all the candidates, Bayrou comes closest to embodying the conflicting emotions at work in the current search for "Frenchness" - nostalgia for a rural past and a desire for incremental but necessary change. He may also offer the only realistic solution. As part of a stronger Europe, France can become more flexible, more influential, and newly, proudly French.