Photo credit: Alan O'Rourke via VisualHunt.com / CC BY
Now that we are more than a few days removed from the recent presidential elections, we can attempt to explain the shock and surprise felt by so many.
Let me preface by saying that this article is in no way designed to talk politics and policy preferences, rather explain why many of us were caught off guard on the evening of November 8th.
In the days preceding the election, most Americans expected and anticipated a Clinton victory.
We now know that this prediction never came to fruition as Donald Trump came out victorious.
Shock ensued for many viewers as the election results were broadcasted. Nearly 75% of Americans polled by Gallup described a reaction of genuine surprise.
For many, the cause of this surprise can be explained by a few factors:
Pre-election polls and surveys proved to be grossly inaccurate. Notable forecasters and media outlets like The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, HuffPost Pollster and RealClearPolitics reportedly predicted Clinton would win leading up to election day, some estimating the likelihood to be as high as 80-90%.
This was in part because of data errors and bad assumptions but also because a large number of voters who ultimately voted for Trump previously didn’t voice strong support until they entered the voting booth. Television networks and newspapers reinforced this all-but-sure election outcome.
That said, I would argue that a different factor contributed to much more of the public shock: isolated social networks.
All those political posts that got you so many likes and comments gave you the impression that most people agreed with your position.
This, my friends, is called an echo chamber. It is an environment where information and ideas are magnified and reinforced, while opposing views are quickly dismissed. This is what happened on social media and throughout online networks, which is why an expected Clinton victory was met with utter shock after a Trump upset.
Many Clinton supporters remained siloed in social networks of like-minded supporters and of those who shared similar opinions.
Social posts and updates like the ones below represented the sentiment across my network and that of many of my peers’ in the hours and days leading up to the election:
The Washington Post highlighted a research study on the topic of echo chambers on social media. The report showed that Facebook users tend to be more active in groups that share more polarizing opinions and reject ideas that don’t align with their perspective.
The same report outlined how confirmation bias plays a significant role in how/when people share information, creating closed loops of opinions. Opinions on politics are no exception to this bias.
From my perspective, one of the key takeaways from this political season, regardless of party/political affiliation, is that we need to be careful of how we use and depend on social media to shape our opinion.
The surprise and shock that I experienced on the evening of November 8th reinforced how true this is for me and many of those who I surround myself with.