It was only six years ago when “the avoidable disaster”, as the 2011 East Africa drought is often referred to, affected 10 million people across the region. In the aftermath of the worst drought since World War II, the international community agreed that the death of tens of thousands of people could have been prevented if the clear warning signs that a disaster was in the making had been resulted in early action. Despite this lesson, here we go again. Only this time in the world´s largest crisis since 1945 the number of people at risk of starvation and diseases in Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria has doubled.
Of the $4.4bn needed by July to avert a catastrophe, according to UN Under-Secretary General and Emergency Relief Coordinator Stephen O´Brien, only a fraction has been raised. Not only the shameful absence of an appropriate international response, but also the discourse surrounding the situation resembles previous famines. Although three consecutive years of diminished food production in the region has indeed exhausted people´s capacity to cope with another shock, one point needs to be clear: a famine is not a natural disaster. Famines are man-made. Thomas Malthus who in 1798 suggested that the population will outstrip the food supply since the population is growing exponentially and food supply arithmetically has long been proven wrong. We live in a world that produces enough food to feed everyone. So, as a matter of fact, famine is not the result of there not being enough food, but of people not having enough food. It is thus a question of redistribution, which is inherently political.
Nigeria´s aggregate cereal output in 2016 was tentatively estimated at about 22.6 million tonnes, which is 5 percent higher than the 2015 above‑average level. Yet, in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, where the militancy of Boko Haram has led to widespread disruption in agricultural and marketing activities, about 4.7 million people are affected by food insecurity. The steep depreciation of the Nigerian Naira in addition to the soaring transport costs due to a sharp increase of domestic fuel prices contributed to spiking prices of imported and local food. This makes supplies unaffordable especially for those living below the poverty line who constitute 74.4 percent in the North East. The closing of markets which often become targets of suicide attacks and the blocking of supplies that could fall in the hands of Boko Haram further exacerbate the food crisis. Also in conflict-ridden Yemen, food supplies have been severely reduced since the fighting about the government-controlled port of Aden and the rebel-held port of Hodeidah, which is the entry point for 70 percent of Yemen´s food and humanitarian supplies. Damaged and insecure markets and roads in addition to a lack of fuel prevent the distribution of supplies. While in Somalia Western aid agencies are not able to deliver relief in areas controlled by the Islamist militant group al-Shabab, the government in South Sudan had been accused of blocking aid agencies to reach famine-hit areas.
While it is politically more convenient to depicture the situation as an act of nature beyond control, it perpetuates the idea of hunger and famine as a shortage of commodities and fails to recognize the politics behind it. Famines do not occur suddenly but constitute a long process of impoverishment and loss of assets that has not been addressed. Trying to understand the lack of action leads us inevitably to political, economic and military interests of national and international actors. When food does not reach conflict-affected or rebel-held areas we need to ask why. Deciding whether to deliver supplies that might end up in the hands of militant groups, thereby eventually strengthening their position, is admittedly a difficult and sensitive issue. So is the strategy of starving out rebel-held territories that not only comes at the cost of civilian lives but might also drive people into the arms of extremists given the lack of alternatives to survive.
While the impact of natural hazards and climate change on food security need to be taken extremely seriously, we must stop pretending that a drought is the reason why we currently observe 20 million people at risk of starvation. If we do not acknowledge and deal with the socio-political system that surrounds famines, it is unlikely that relief will be reached by as many people as possible and that future disasters will be prevented.
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