Saudi Arabia, alongside Jordan, is an island of political stability in the midst of an ocean of instability. In itself an interesting phenomenon in a region where all kinds of revolutionary regimes have failed to maintain even the barest of political stability and legitimacy. There is only one case of an unnatural change of power, when King Faisal was assassinated by a deranged member of the Royal family in 1975. Stability was gained through the upholding of religious prestige, clever maneuvering in the stormy waters of Arab regional politics, and surely the centrality of oil and its huge revenues, which the Royal family knew how to share with the people. Add up to that, the lack of an a regional Islamic challenger to the religious supremacy of the Kingdom and the American defense umbrella, amounting to an undeclared but actual guarantee of support for the preservation of the regime. In fact, as ironic as it may be, the US provided the Kingdom with maybe the most lavish chunk of American tax payers money, by having the American Fifth Navy be in charge of the defense of the Gulf region, actually in defense of Saudi Arabia. Be it as it may, things are changing nowadays, and they start feeling it in the palaces of Riyadh.
The world dependence on Gulf oil, Saudi included, is dramatically receding and when millions of Arabs flee the Middle East and North Africa, the Arabs of the Gulf are STILL staying put, remaining loyal to their rulers and enjoying the fruits of the bonanza of previous decades. No one talks about what may happen, when in ten plus years, the oil of the Gulf will become marginal in the overall global oil /energy market. Many more millions will then seek a new life, first the many millions of foreign workers who now keep the local economies there going, then millions of yes, Saudis and others. The instability of today in many Middle East countries, will be dwarfed by the enormity of the crisis to befall Saudi Arabia and some of its smaller neighbors. The Saudis know this very well, and in recent months we could read about the pride they take in managing to save hundreds of millions of US Dollars in their budget-imagine, Saudi Arabia and savings. Moreover, they publicly talk about the need to adapt their economy to the day after, and long-term economic development programs are in the making. Many observers feel, that it is too little too late, and it may be the case, but the fact, that there is growing public Saudi concern about and interest in their long-term economic future is telling
With that in mind, we can properly assess the importance which the Saudis attach to the big shadow cast by the Iranian Islamic Republic which challenges Saudi religious legitimacy, endangers its internal stability by supporting subversion and possible secessionist Shi’ite movement in the Eastern province and undermining its regional standing in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Religious challenge by the Shi’ites comes at a time of religious Sunni challenge by ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, and recently also Turkey. The Saudis have their hands full of problems, as each one of them is potentially so risky, and all of them simultaneously are likely to be existential. So, it is in this context that we need to view the dismissal of Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef from being the Crown Prince, and the appointment of the young Prince Muhammad Bin Salman , the King’s son as his successor.
For a long time, there have been rumors swirling around the King’s health condition, and while never being verified, the appointment of a 31 years old Crown Prince may indicate, that behind close doors in Riyadh, they know something that they still do not share with their own citizens and the outside world. I, for one, happen to believe, that the fact , that almost each news report both in the Arab world and outside refer to the REFORMER Prince Muhammad may also be an explanation for the new appointment and its timing. The Royal family wants the world to know, that the Kingdom is in transition -they want their citizens to know it, they want Iran to know it, they want the rest of the Middle East to know it, the US, and also the elephant in the room, Israel. Saudi regional moves as of late have had the finger print of the new Crown Prince, most recently the strong hand approach towards Qatar, the huge arms deal with the US, and possibly many publications of stories, never officially verified about the need to change course with regard to Israel, even specifically referring to Iran as THE enemy, rather than Israel. Saudi military performance in Yemen has been abysmal, and surely they need to quickly improve their military if possible at all. Their recent virtual siege on Qatar is yet to bear fruits, and the situation in Syria does not necessarily develop in a way conforms with their wishes. In the background there is also Turkey and its claim for renewed supremacy in the Sunni world, and oil prices continue to shrink.
Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman is coming to the fore at a crucial time in the Middle East in general, and in his kingdom in particular. The stability of Saudi Arabia is deposited in the hands of such a young , ambitious but also inexperienced leader. There is so much at stake here, and not just for the Kingdom, but for the rest of the Middle East. Days of worry, anticipation and hope are ahead of us all.