Go to Real Clear Politics. Nationally, Clinton is only up 2.3 points and Election Day is November 8, 2016.
In an average of polls on RCP, Donald Trump is up 0.6% points over Hillary Clinton in Ohio. He’s also up by 5 points in a recent Bloomberg poll.
Ohio is crucial and according to US News & World Report, only “two Democrats were elected without it.”
As for Florida, Trump leads Clinton by 0.7 points in an average of polls. The Republican nominee is up 3 points in the latest CNN Florida poll over Clinton.
Together, Ohio and Florida make up 47 electoral votes. The Real Clear Politics electoral map shows Democrats can reasonably expect 209 electoral votes and Republicans 154; toss up states amount to 175 potential electoral votes up for grabs.
If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, Republicans will surge to 201 electoral votes on Election Day and immediately erase the sizable advantage in “safe” electoral votes for Democrats. Then, only 128 electoral votes will decide the election and Trump could feasibly get the 270 needed for a neon Trump sign on the White House.
Donald Trump’s surge in these battleground states is explained in a recent CNN piece titled CNN/ORC polls: Trump's national gains extend to Florida, Ohio:
Washington (CNN)With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states.
Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.
The polls come as other national and battleground state polls suggest a sharply tightened contest compared with mid-August. While Clinton emerged from her convention with the advantage in surveys in both states and nationwide, more recent surveys suggest a closer contest and an enthusiasm gap that tilts in Trump's favor. A Bloomberg Politics survey of Ohio voters released Wednesday morning found Trump ahead by five points, identical to the margin in this survey of Ohio voters…
Younger voters, who were a key driver of President Barack Obama's support in both 2008 and 2012, are not lining up as solidly behind Clinton in either state, and they are less likely than older voters to make it through a likely voter screen at this point in the campaign, suggesting they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election.
As pointed out by CNN (and every Bernie Sanders voter on the planet), “Younger voters, who were a key driver of President Barack Obama's support in both 2008 and 2012, are not lining up as solidly behind Clinton in either state.” Furthermore, the voter turnout Hillary Clinton will need throughout the country will certainly not match President Obama in other battleground states.
In addition, the RCP electoral map showing Clinton winning the presidency with 293 electoral votes (while giving Trump Ohio and Florida and 245 votes) actually shows Clinton winning North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and Virginia.
However, 270towin.com states North Carolina (aside from 2008) has been “almost exclusively Republican beginning in 1968.” Clinton is only up 0.8 in an average of polls over Trump and is losing to Trump by 3 points in a September 7th Suffolk poll. If Republicans get North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, then Trump is now looking at 260 electoral votes.
Democrats would have 278 to Trump’s 260, if Republicans win Ohio, Florida (where Trump is now up) and North Carolina, where Clinton is virtually tied.
But wait, now the truly frightening scenario—which seems quite possible after all of Clinton’s scandals—is Trump also winning Nevada (Clinton only up by 0.8) and gaining its 6 electoral votes.
Then you have Democrats with only a 272 to 266 advantage, if Trump wins North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Florida; polls show a tight race or Trump winning in those states.
With only 6 electoral votes, Clinton is only up 3 points in Rhode Island, and Rhode Island has 4 electoral votes. If it goes to Trump, America is looking at Republicans with 270 electoral votes and Democrats with 268.
If Trump wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Rhode Island, and keeps Republican strongholds in this RCP electoral map, Donald Trump would win the presidency.
Although Rhode Island historically votes for the Democratic nominee, The Providence Journal writes Emerson poll finds Clinton's lead over Trump precariously thin in R.I.
Or, without Rhode Island, Trump can still win, as long as he also takes Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. With only 6 electoral votes separating Clinton and Trump in this possible scenario, Clinton is only up an average 3.7 points in Virginia. Virginia has 13 electoral votes and would give Republicans the White House; 279 votes to 259.
Or, what about Michigan? As Michael Moore writes, “In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) than the Democrats (1.19 million).” If Democrats keep Virginia, but lose Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, Michigan’s 16 electoral votes would give Trump a 282 to 256 advantage. Clinton is up 5.6 points in Michigan, but has lost an over 10-point lead since August.
However, in order to escape an Electoral Day nightmare, the DNC must bring Bernie Sanders back into the race. The key to Democrats winning states like Ohio is not only voter turnout, but appealing to Bernie voters and independents who will never vote for Clinton. As recently as September 6, 2016 The New York Times published a piece titled Despite Bernie Sanders’s Urging, Die-Hards Still Resist Hillary Clinton:
“Never Hillary!” the former Sanders supporters yelled back, as some declared they would vote for Jill Stein, the Green Party presidential nominee.
In addition to voters who will never support Clinton, a great many Bernie supporters have already switched allegiances and will vote for Jill Stein. I too, will vote for Dr. Stein if Bernie doesn’t reenter the race.
Trump now has a realistic chance of winning. However, the DNC would save Democrats and the future of the country with Bernie Sanders, if Clinton needed to leave the race because of pneumonia, WikiLeaks, or Republicans subpoenaing her tech staffers.
Democrats need Bernie because of Clinton’s ever-dwindling polls. As stated by NBC News just the other day, Hillary Clinton’s leads evaporate in a matter of weeks:
A few weeks ago, when Clinton was enjoying a double-digit lead over Trump, she also held a double-digit lead among independents. This week, she leads the Republican candidate by just 2 points among these voters — 38 percent to 36 percent. It is clear that non-partisans will play a significant role in deciding the ultimate winner of the presidential race in November…
Trump also received a slight boost in his favorability ratings. Though a majority of voters say they have an unfavorable impression of Clinton (59 percent) and Trump (60 percent), the number of voters who say they have a strongly favorable opinion of Trump has increased by 4 points — from 12 points to 16 points — since the questions was last asked about a month ago.
Currently, 38 percent of registered voters now have a favorable impression of Trump. Nearly an identical number — 39 percent — have a favorable impression of Clinton.
Not only are Clinton’s poll numbers fading rapidly, but Trump’s image has been boosted by Clinton’s never-ending scandals.
It’s not too late. Although establishment Democrats might laugh at the notion, they also never believed Clinton would be the “presumptive” nominee heading into the Democratic convention. Bernie Sanders has already shocked America’s political establishment and if the DNC wants to win, it will ask Bernie to reenter the race. If Democrats want to remain on a sinking ship, at least Bernie voters warned them from the beginning.
It’s September, and if Trump wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada (while keeping traditional Republican states), then Election Day might mean four years of a Trump White House. With the energy and renewed passion that Bernie Sanders could give Democrats, now is the time to bring back Vermont’s Senator.