“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” is going to be big. Possibly even bigger than “Avatar.”
With less than two weeks until its release, “The Force Awakens” is tracking to debut with an opening weekend gross between $170 and $220 million domestically.
If it opens at the low number (it won’t), it’ll still land in the top five highest grossing opening weekends, and more than double “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey’s” December opening weekend record of $84.6 million. If it opens at the high number, it’ll take the top spot for the biggest weekend ever.
The current No. 1 opening weekend honcho is this year’s “Jurassic World,” which debuted with a dino-sized $208.8 million. In December, that’s tough to beat because winter films need to compete with holiday shoppers and travel plans, while summer blockbusters have the advantage of schools being out for a months-long break.
But, this is a movie that has already broken box-office records by amassing over $50 million in pre-ticket sales (the previous record holder was “The Dark Knight Rises” with $25 million) and compelled fans to get preemptive (and somewhat bizarre) Daisy Ridley tattoos.
It’s also important to note that opening weekends don’t always correlate to big box-office numbers in the long run. “Avatar” is the highest grossing movie of all-time with $2.7 billion, but only opened domestically with a modest $77 million. So how did it make so much money? It had box-office legs -- it could hold the No. 1 spot against any other competing releases.
Studios have caught on to this, realizing that blockbusters can sometimes earn more when they are released outside of summer, allowing extra time to accumulate a greater gross with a leggy-release. Just look at “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.” Even though the film screams summer blockbuster, it will debut on March 23, facing little competition until May. On that alone, it’s likely that “Batman v Superman” will beat out Marvel’s similar offering, “Captain America: Civil War,” because it has time to own the spring box office in the same way that “Furious 7” did earlier this year.
So just to compare, six years ago, “Avatar” bowed to a Dec. 18 release, and the blue behemoth went on to crush the international box office for seven consecutive weeks, eventually dethroning the previous king of the world, “Titanic.”
“Force Awakens” will be released on the same date, Dec. 18, and has already earned more than $50 million. The film’s pre-ticket sales could also be for showings after the opening weekend, but the brunt of it will be from its earliest days. Not to mention, theaters are still adding additional screenings, with some offering 5 a.m. showtimes to accommodate the high demand. It’s also set to premiere in more than 4,500 locations in North America, which is more theaters than any movie has before. In short, “Force Awakens” is poised to rule.
“Star Wars” also has something that “Avatar” never had: Nostalgia.
Just by looking at the overall numbers for “Jurassic World," we know that audiences are hungry for familiar franchises. A fan-favorite, “Jurassic World” went on to internationally shatter records earning $1.6 billion, becoming the highest grossing movie of 2015 (for now) and the third highest of all-time.
Arguably, “Star Wars” has a bigger draw than “Jurassic Park,” with a saga of films spanning nearly 40 years and a loyal fan base across all generations. With lightsabers and the Force embedded into everyday pop culture, the “Star Wars” saga is part of the zeitgeist in a way that very few series have been able to match.
Case in point: “Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace.” Released in 1999, this special movie holds two “Star Wars” records -- It’s the most poorly received film, but it’s also the highest earning, with over $1 billion. If it were released today and adjusted for inflation, the “Phantom Menace” would be somewhere around $1.4 billion, sitting in the top 10 highest grossing films.
So how did the worst “Star Wars” movie make so much money? It’s all about the “surprise effect.”
In 1983, audiences thought the “Star Wars” trilogy was complete with “Return of the Jedi,” and any dreams of another journey to a galaxy were far far away ... But in 1995, George Lucas sent fans into a frenzy when he announced the prequel trilogy. Essentially, this gave “Phantom Menace” an unmatched hype that no other “Star Wars” film has yet been able to top.
Fast forward to 2005. Just like after “Return of the Jedi”, audiences thought the “Star Wars” saga was complete after “Episode III: Revenge of the Sith,” but Disney shocked everyone when it acquired Lucasfilm in 2012 and touted the release of an upcoming sequel trilogy. The same hype from 1995 had been awakened.
With the return of the ENTIRE original cast (sans Lando Calrissian aka Billy Dee Williams) and the excitement of a virtually unknown plot, the expectations are even higher for “Force Awakens” than “Phantom Menace.”
Coupled with the release date of "Avatar," high pre-ticket sales, record-breaking tracking numbers and the freedom to hold the box office for the foreseeable future, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” doesn’t just have the potential to be the biggest movie of all-time, it will be.
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