If current trends hold, Clinton is the solid favorite to win in November. Post-debate state and national polls show the margin between Clinton and Trump increasing. And Americans are less certain that they’ll vote than they were in 2012. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, October 4, 2016.
HUFFPOST FORECAST GIVES CLINTON STRONG CHANCE OF WINNING IN NOVEMBER - HuffPollster: “We’re likely to see the first woman elected as president of the United States on Nov. 8, based on the HuffPost forecast model, which puts Hillary Clinton at an [82] percent chance of winning against Donald Trump. The poll-based model indicates that Clinton is likely to get over 300 electoral votes. The model currently shows her with 323, which includes all of the typically Democratic states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. She can safely lose Florida, North Carolina and Nevada ― the states she’s winning with the narrowest margin of victory in the model ― and still win 273 electoral votes and the presidency. Trump has a much more difficult path to 270. The model gives him only 215 electoral votes, and that includes close races in Nevada and Ohio. Trump would need to hold all of those states plus overtake Clinton in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and one more state to win…. The model utilizes polls in the HuffPost Pollster database to calculate the likelihood of each candidate winning the election. Unlike other forecast models, it doesn’t include historical or economic data, nor does it adjust the polls in any way. Because of this, it’s a bit more certain of Clinton’s win in some of the states and overall than other forecast models.” [HuffPost]
Yard signs, Chuck Norris and eight other things we didn’t account for in our forecast. [HuffPost]
POST-DEBATE POLLS SHOW TRUMP DECLINING - Donald Trump’s standing in the polls is down by about 3 points after last week’s debate, while Clinton’s numbers are mostly unchanged. Heading into the debate, Clinton led Trump by a slim margin of 1.6 points, 46.7 percent to 45.1 percent, according to a straight average of national polls conducted between Sept. 19 and Sept. 25. An average of post-debate polls conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3 finds Clinton now has 47.1 percent to his 42.1 percent.
Clinton looks strong in state polls - Nate Silver: “Hillary Clinton is leading in the race for president, and she’s made meaningful gains since last week’s presidential debate….In the set of pre-debate polls, Clinton was barely ahead. Out of 67 polls, she led in 34, trailed in 29 and was tied with Trump in four. Clinton’s leads in potentially must-win states, such as Pennsylvania and Colorado, were tenuous. And she wasn’t clearly ahead anywhere else, although Florida and North Carolina were tossups….But Clinton’s advantage in the post-debate data is just as clear. Out of 20 post-debate polls in swing states, she’s led in 18, trailed in only one...and was tied in one other. Overall, the post-debate polls look a lot like the results that President Obama had against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election, although with Ohio and North Carolina flipping sides.” [538]
-Colorado: Two new polls in Colorado show Clinton up by an 11-point margin. Monmouth University and Democratic pollster Keating Research both find Trump languishing below 40 percent in the state. A few polls conducted prior to the debate last week seemed to show the race tightening, but Clinton still has a 4.5 point lead over Trump in the HuffPost Pollster chart. [Monmouth, Keating, Colorado chart]
-Florida: The Sunshine State has looked competitive, but post-debate polls consistently show Clinton leading. A new Quinnipiac poll puts her lead at 5 points, although the HuffPost Pollster chart still shows a closer race ― she leads by just above 2 points in the aggregate. [Quinnipiac, Florida chart]
-North Carolina: New post-debate polls show Clinton ahead in the Tar Heel State, but only narrowly. Quinnipiac shows a 3-point lead for the Democratic candidate, while Bloomberg/Selzer shows her with a very narrow 1-point edge. Both results are within the polls’ margins of error. In the HuffPost Pollster chart, Clinton leads by just over 1 percentage point. [Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, North Carolina chart]
-Ohio: According to Quinnipiac, Trump has gained in Ohio, where he’s now besting Clinton by 5 percentage points. In their last poll of the state, the Republican nominee only led by 1 point. Individual polls vary on whether Trump or Clinton is ahead, but the HuffPost Pollster chart gives the advantage to Trump by a very narrow margin ― not even a full percentage point. [Quinnipiac, Ohio chart]
-Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton up by 4 points, similar to their early September poll of the state that showed her leading by 5 points. In the meantime, however, other polls showed Trump gaining and Clinton slipping a bit. The HuffPost Pollster chart illustrates that slide, but still has Clinton up by a little more than 4 points. [Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania chart]
-National: New national polls have consistent results as well. Clinton leads by 5 points in the YouGov/Economist poll, 6 points in the CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC and NBC/SurveyMonkey polls, and by 7 points in a new Morning Consult poll. Those spreads vary from Clinton +3 to +6 for the 4-way race. The HuffPost Pollster aggregate shows her leading Trump by about 5 points in both the 2-way and 4-way race. [CNN/ORC, Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, CBS/NYT, NBC/SurveyMonkey, National 2-way chart, National 4-way chart]
AMERICANS ARE LESS SURE THAN USUAL ABOUT VOTING - Lydia Saad: “Amid the news frenzy leading up to the first general election debate of 2016, fewer U.S. adults rate themselves highly likely to vote for president than did so in September of each of the past four presidential election years. Sixty-nine percent of Americans currently rate their chances of voting a ‘10’ on a 1-to-10 likelihood of voting scale. That is down from 76% in 2012 and 80% in 2008, the year with the highest turnout since 2000….The 72% currently giving ‘a lot’ of thought to the race is similar to what Gallup recorded in September 2012, but is down from 2004 and 2008….These figures could change between now and Election Day. However, while the percentage giving quite a lot of thought to the election usually increases by several percentage points between September and November, the percentage rating their likelihood of voting a ‘10’ typically does not.” [Gallup]
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TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Donald Trump is seen as less conservative than previous GOP candidates. [Gallup]
-Voters are concerned about the way the Trump Foundation operates. [Morning Consult]
-Most Americans across party lines say they want to see Trump’s tax returns. [SurveyMonkey]
-John Sides notes that many Americans aren’t aware that Trump was born into wealth. [WashPost]
-Christianna Silva offers a pessimistic prediction about gender parity in Congress. [538]
-Carl Bialik looks at a NORC study finding that people who oppose gay marriage are less likely to value expert opinions. [538]