As a screenwriter and novelist, part of my job is to imagine scenarios that may be far-fetched, but are close enough to reality to be believable. There has been much talk about the polarization of America, and some talk of a “cold civil war.” On the fringes of American society, there has even been talk of an actual civil war. The NRA, for example, has a video on their website calling for fighting back against the left with a “clenched fist.” This is only a whisper away from a call for civil violence.
So, in putting on my writer’s cap, I try to imagine what another American civil war would look like. Beginning with the premise that the fault lines would break primarily between urban and rural, coastal and Mid-America, white and minority, how might a civil war take shape? One can imagine that the Upper East coast and the West Coast would unite on one side – call it the “left” -- of the conflict, joined by cities like Chicago, Miami and other urban centers scattered around the country.
This would provide the left with important economic clout, since it could effectively blockade or boycott the enemy. There is already evidence of this tactic in the boycotts of California and other states, along with organizations like the NCAA, against states with discriminatory laws or practices. The “right” confederation might control the largest geographical area of the country, which it could use to block transcontinental trade between the coasts and also could enable it to blockade the “left” urban centers that were surrounded by the forces of the “right.”
What about military resources? The left would have certain advantages because of their wealth, their larger population and their control of both coasts. While there are federal military installations scattered around the country, the initial conflicts would probably be between the national guards of the various states, since the federal government would be largely stalemated in the face of such a conflict.
What would be the role of the federal government in a civil war? Oddly enough, the government might find itself fairly powerless. While one or more of the branches of government might be controlled by left-leaning or right-leaning factions, it would be politically difficult for the government to control either side. Although Washington, DC is smack in the middle of the “left” territory, the government itself would still be divided in its loyalties. Unlike the first Civil War, in which the North presented itself as preserving the Union, both sides in the second civil war would be determined to dissolve the Union and to gain as much power and territory as possible for its side.
The best that the federal government could do in a second civil war would be to keep the most dangerous weapons – nuclear weapons and ICBMs – out of the hands of the combatants. Because of the intermingling of right and left throughout the country, the flow of refugees would be enormous, and the impact on the economy and infrastructure would clearly be devastating.
There would also be serious danger of foreign intervention. Countries like China, Russia – even Mexico and Canada – would be tempted to carve out either territory or spheres of influence, and a weakened federal government would be ill-equipped to stop them. The ultimate partition of the country would also provide the global community opportunities for exploitation. Whatever the final resolution, a divided America would pay a steep price in resources and territory.
It may be entertaining as a writer to spin out a civil war scenario, but it is incredibly dangerous for groups on the fringe or organizations like the NRA to be dog-whistling to their supporters about the prospect of a second civil war. To those who are contemplating such a course, or even using it as a tactic to rally support, it is worth considering what such a conflict might look like, and the devastation it would reap on all American lives.