The following paints a grim scenario. As you consider it, remember that sociopaths have no empathy. Thus, they have no gut feelings, no inner voice, to guide them about right or wrong, good or bad, wise or unwise. If you try to put yourself in Trump’s shoes, and conclude that you would never, could never, do such things, as a human being or as an American, you are using the wrong yardstick. Trump’s yardsticks are his own malignant narcissism first and Steve Bannon second.
Rubles-to-doughnuts, Steve Bannon is painting this picture for Trump right now:
With the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel, the ultimate outcome for Donald Trump and a number of his associates is quite clear. If his investigation proceeds, many will likely go to jail. In the process, Trump’s tax returns will likely reveal him to be far less wealthy than he proclaims, ridden with debts, dependent on foreign loans and thus subject to blackmail and influence.
In the Lester Holt interview, Trump said he fired former FBI Director Comey to stop the Russia investigation. [Because sociopaths lack feelings, there was no inner voice telling him it was wrong]. That’s obstruction of justice in both intent and deed. He then had top-level Russians to the White House, bragged to them about firing Comey, and revealed classified information to them [His malignant narcissm needed to show them he was clever and powerful]. That’s providing aid-and-comfort to enemies of the United States. Treason.
It will almost assuredly come out that during the transition between the Obama and Trump Administrations, Trump’s people told the Russians that they would lift the sanctions. That’s interfering with the conduct of US foreign policy.
Mueller’s investigation will inexorably lead to analyses of Trump’s hidden tax returns, probably going back 15 years. He will also be looking for the “quid” for the “pro quo” of returning Russia’s American dachas to them.
Trump does not have much time to act. Having his tax returns known by anyone (other than Vladimir Putin whom I bet has them via hacking) is an existential threat to Trump’s entire persona. July 4th, when the rest of us are barbecuing and celebrating the birth of our Republic, will be the day Donald Trump brought it to its end.
Did anyone really believe that Donald Trump, who grew up in the lap of luxury and has used his inherited wealth to con and bully his way through life, literally and figuratively grabbing whatever he can, would be interested in a job with checks-and-balances designed deliberately to prevent the exercise of unaccountable power?
The only way for Trump to stop the Mueller bullet train from leaving the station is for Trump to pardon everyone—Manafort, Flynn, Jared, Ivanka, his sons, Carter Page, everyone potentially involved in Trump-gate, and, for good measure, for all of their other felonies that they may have committed.
One danger for him is that those pardoned cannot then assert their 5th Amendment protection against self-incrimination as grounds for not providing information or testimony as they cannot be prosecuted. Failure to abide by subpoenas or provide testimony or lying would be subsequent crimes. Trump can easily handle this by providing them assurances that, if they stick with him, they will be pardoned in the future.
Once there is no one left to prosecute, Mueller’s investigation will shut down. Once there are no cooperating witnesses, so will Congress’s.
Trump’s excuse will be the same as he gave Lester Holt. The Russia story had no substance, the investigation was draining time and energy from fighting for the American people, and so he had to do it for the good of the country.
Bannon is likely urging Trump that he has nothing to lose as his presidency will collapse anyhow, and along with it the façade of wealth and power that is his brand. Nothing, no person, no country, no member of his family, is as important to him as his brand. Without pardons, it is likely many of these characters would go to jail and, in the process, reveal damning information about one Donald J Trump.
Can Trump pardon himself? That is unclear. Since a President cannot be indicted while serving, it might be argued that there is nothing to pardon himself for, and thus the pardon power is inapplicable until he leaves office, after which he no longer has the power. On the other hand, it has never been attempted, so that Trump would be likely to try. In any case, expect President Pence to oblige as a way to save the base for himself.
Whether he tries pardoning himself or not, the other pardons and his use of the pardon power to prevent his loyalists from being indicted and investigated, will have thrown down the gauntlet. At that point, the only institution remaining to save our traditions, our democracy, our form of government is a Congress controlled by the Republican party. Trump cannot shut down impeachment proceedings. [A quicker, cleaner—for Republicans—way to do it is to pass a law with veto proof majorities mandating the IRS to publish every September 15th, the last 15 years of tax returns of every sitting President and Vice-President. Trump would resign on the 14th.]
Will Republicans do it? Do they truly believe in democracy, in the rule of law, in checks and balances, in the wisdom of the Founders, in 228 years of American tradition?
Make no mistake. Failure to act is tantamount to von Hindenburg’s “Enabling Act of 1933” that gave Hitler’s regime arbitrary powers. Once Trump stares down the Republican Congress with these pardons, they will be powerless to stop him from doing exactly as he pleases, pardoning along the way when necessary.
Trump has already taken steps to unravel our democratic process. For example, agencies have been ordered not to turn over information that belongs to the public to Congress unless a Chairman (ie, a Republican, there are no Democratic chairs) asks for it. Loyalists are in positions in the agencies to spy on their activities for Bannon.
It takes little imagination to assume that white supremacist paramilitary organizations are at the ready to enforce what Trump wants. Some even dress up as Stormtroopers.
Couple the pardons with the simultaneous carpet-bombing of Raqqa, or some other center of ISIS activity, and America will be presented with its strongman, with the epaulet-adorned military uniform replaced by the hat.
Yes, there will be resignations galore from the government, including non-political positions—perfect from Bannon’s perspective, so he can fill those slots with his own goons. The press will erupt, demonstrations will occur, but Bannon-Trump have reason to expect they will die down, and will actively infiltrate and suppress them, routinely jailing and beating people on Trumped-up charges.
Will Congress blink? If Republicans indict and convict Trump, a large fraction of their base will turn against them.
It should not be a hard decision. For patriots it would be obvious. For anyone who values democracy, civility, truth, accountability it would be a no-brainer, but thusfar there have been no takers among the Republicans. None of them will even vote to subpoena his tax returns. Sixty-seven votes are required for conviction in the United States Senate. Forty-eight are Democrats or vote with them.
Are there 19 Republican Senators who believe our form of government is more worth saving than any person, policy or even their own careers who will vote to remove Trump from office?
I would not bet a lot on it.