China-Russia-Pakistan Triangle
Pakistan, which has been a United States ally for almost seventy years, is drifting away toward China, forging a mighty economic and military relationship touted as “taller than the mountain and deeper than the ocean.” Russia, reemerging as an assertive global power, is also looking toward China as a more reliable global partner. The relations between Russia and Pakistan are still in an early incubatory period but may grow stronger as China furnishes the common factor to complete the triangle. China and Russia will be roughly equal partners whereas Pakistan will be the unequal (and smaller) side of the isosceles.
In this series of articles, I explain how each side of the triangle brings strengths and weaknesses to the alliance. First, let me discuss Pakistan-Russia side of the isosceles.
Pakistan and Russia
Since its establishment in 1947, Pakistan has been looking for durable global alliances. Due to the British colonialism, Pakistan’s ruling elites were educated in English sensibilities and felt natural bonds with Anglo countries, particularly the United States. While India, with its socialist leanings during the Cold War, was drawn toward the Soviet Union, Pakistan opted for free markets and democracy frequently interrupted by military coups. For decades, Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States, all provided extensive technical, military, and economic assistance in raising Pakistan’s standard of living.
During the cold war, Pakistan supported the United States as a loyal ally and earned the wrath of the Soviet Union. Pakistan joined a Britain-sponsored security organization, called the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), designed to counter the Soviet influence in the Muslim world. To further strengthen its ties with the West, Pakistan joined another anti-Soviet Union organization called Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). In the Soviet circles, Pakistan was viewed as part of the Western resistance to communism and Soviet expansionism.
If the United States makes a policy shift and prefers India as the key regional ally, Russia and Pakistan may draw closer.
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan organized the local armed resistance against the Soviet military. Utilizing the resources from Saudi Arabia and the United States, Pakistan played a critical role in developing an ideological and tactical infrastructure that would eventually force the Soviet Union to leave Afghanistan. During this period, the armed forces and intelligence agencies of Pakistan acquired invaluable experience, confidence, and the will to play international geopolitics with skill.
This sore history resides in active memory of the Russian policymakers. Russia will need clear and convincing proof that Pakistan has changed its geopolitical orientation. As long as the United States and other Western countries remain close to Pakistan, Russia is unlikely to trust Pakistan as an ally. If the United States makes a policy shift and prefers India as the key regional ally, Russia and Pakistan may draw closer. It is unclear what factors might induce Russia to prefer Pakistan over India.
The Russia-Pakistan relations remain sketchy and unstable. At this time, Pakistan is too close to the West to make a revolutionary shift to Russia. The Pakistani elites are unlikely to sacrifice the highly-developed cultural and language ties with the West, especially Anglo countries, and opt for Russia, a country truly foreign to the people of Pakistan. Millions of Pakistanis have immigrated to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, and Australia but very few to Russia. English is widely spoken throughout Pakistan. Russia will have to develop from scratch a credible interest in the history, culture, and the people of Pakistan to come across as a meaningful ally. Mere defense pacts with no cultural foundation are inherently weak and may falter when needed.
Sometimes, the resurrection of forgotten history can give meaning to new nation-to-nation contacts. The Central Asian States, particularly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, present a perfect medium for Russia and Pakistan to mediate long term ties. Russia understands the Central Asian States as the former Soviets and Pakistan has profound religious and historical ties with the same states. The cities of Samarkand and Bukhara, located in Uzbekistan, carry deep Islamic history widely known in Pakistan. Imam Bukhari, the greatest scholar of Islam, was born and buried in Uzbekistan. The great Mughal Empire (1526-1748) emerged from Central Asia, leaving indelible marks on both India and Pakistan. After partition, Pakistanis find more in common with the Mughals than Indians who see the Mughals as invaders and suppressors of Hinduism.
In the China-Russia-Pakistan triangle, China will remain the principal player. Forging a strategic alliance for addressing regional problems, China will firmly hold the triangle creating new opportunities for further cooperation. The triangle would test Pakistan’s traditional alliances with the West. Pakistan is tied too strongly to the United States to venture into any abrupt breakup. If the United States chooses to vigorously affiliate with India, Russia will find Pakistan as a likely counter-balance.
(to be continued)