It is arguably the case, that when discussing Iraq these days, attention is almost exclusively focused on ISIS and its dwindling fortunes there. The inevitable impression is one of great relief, based on the assumption, perhaps hope, that we may be heading towards the beginning of the end of troubles in this country. A mistake, in fact, a forlorn hope and self -delusion. We may be in the end of the beginning at best, and troubles will continue, in fact, will be exacerbated. In the case of Iraq, this is the 14 centuries -old Sunni -Shi’ite rivalry, and the century -old Arab-Kurdish conflict. It is the former which seems to boil down to the point of implosion, one which will not be contained only within the borders of Iraq. It is because of the fact, that the Regional Kurdish Government of Iraq[RKG] , led by Masoud Barazani , intends to hold a referendum on 25th of September about independence , and its result should not be in any doubt-the Kurds will go for it.
Some context is in place here. The Kurds constitute nearly one quarter of Iraq’s population, almost 7 million, mostly concentrated in Northern Iraq, a mountainous region, which for centuries was the natural shelter of a population which while being devoted Sunni Muslim , fiercely maintained its distinct ethnic identity, though divided along tribal lines. It is a common Kurdish saying, that the mountain is the natural ally of the Kurds, but all this changed after WWI , like so many other things in the Middle East. Historic Kurdistan became divided between 4 states, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria, altogether, in today’s numbers 35 million people colonized by other ethnic groups ruling independent states which never recognized Kurdish national rights. This led to a century of disquiet in the Kurdish areas, where the struggle for national sovereignty never ceased. It was harshly dealt with in all 4 states, especially in Turkey which has a population of nearly 20 million Kurds and in Iraq. It is in Iraq where the greatest drama has always taken place, where successive Arab -based governments in Baghdad consistently refused to accept Kurdish national rights. The only exception being the short-lived period after the Iraqi revolution of July 1958, when the then dictator, General Qassem, was negotiating the possibility of a joint Arab-Kurdish state. All this time, in fact from the 1920’s until now, one Kurdish clan was dominant in leading the independence struggle, though not exclusively so, and this are the Barazanis, led for decades by the legendary freedom fighter Mullah Mustafa Barazani, the father of Masoud Barazani . Geopolitics have always proved to be the greatest enemy of Kurdish aspirations, as none of the neighboring countries of Iraq really wanted a Kurdish state there, for fear of igniting Kurdish national feelings in their own territory. None more so than Turkey, which bloodily suppressed Kurdish revolts in 1925, 1930 and 1937, but failed to curb Kurdish national struggle, and while relaxing some of the restrictions on Kurds, still has to deal with an on-going Kurdish terror campaign in South East Anatolia, led by the Kurdish Workers Party[PKK]. In Iraq, the fortunes of the Kurds started to change only after the Kuwait war of 1991, when the US imposed a no-fly zone on the Saddam Hussein regime, and even more so after 2003, when the Kurdish region became, for all intents and purposes, a self-ruled region, though formally under the Iraqi state. Years later, as Iraq’s sectarian conflicts are in full force, the Kurds want to move from actual self-rule to full-fledged formal independence.
The Kurdish move to have a referendum is the most natural and understandable step for them to take. Iraq cannot survive for long as a state torn by sectarian conflict, not different, of course from Syria, which is out of the scope of this piece. The old Joe Biden idea about a partition along sectarian lines in Iraq, seems the most plausible solution to the problems there, and so Kurdish separation will be the first step in this direction. It is a natural and understandable step considering the legacy of brutal Arab suppression of the Kurds, climaxed with the horrific chemical attack on Kurdish Halabja in March 1988, leaving 6000 casualties. It is morally right, as the Kurds constitute a distinct national entity, and they do possess the ability to have a state in their region, as they have proved for nearly 3 decades . While it is definitely a case of bringing about historic justice to a brave national group, it is still the problem of geopolitics which will stand in the way of historic justice. Turkey will prove again the great final stumbling block, and to a lesser extent also Iran. The Iraqi government in Baghdad will not be able to stop the Kurds. The Iraqis will find out very quickly that dealing with the Kurdish army, the legendary Pesh Merga, is nothing like dealing with ISIS. Turkey can intervene, using as a pretext, the opposition of hundreds of thousands of Turkmen, to be included in a separate Kurdish state, especially referring to the city of Kirkuk and its environs, where there are Turkmen, but also plenty of oil. Turkey is already getting assistance from the Trump Administration which is starting to put pressure on the Kurds to postpone the referendum. Barazani still stands firm, but for how long is an open question. Arguments such as, give time for negotiations will not work here. The Kurds remember, that an Arab Sunni government in Baghdad was always opposed to their national desires, and the current government in Baghdad may be Arab, but being Shi’ite makes it subservient to Iran. The Iranians, much like the Turks, fear a Kurdish state which may trigger a Kurdish campaign in Iran itself. So, negotiations will not work here, and also the claim , that an independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq will add another source of instability in a chronically unstable region does not hold water either. It may not be a bad idea at all for Mr. Erdohan and the Iranians to look inward rather than outward.
History, morality and sound politics support the brave Kurdish people. Let them realize that, and let the referendum take place and lead to Kurdish independence.