While President Donald Trump has suggested that the United States must expand its nuclear arsenal, many experts say U.S. nuclear forces are unrivaled and will remain so as they undergo a modernization program that could cost more than $1 trillion.
In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Trump said the United States has “fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity.” He pledged to ensure that, “We’re going to be at the top of the pack.”
While Moscow currently deploys 200 more strategic nuclear warheads than the United States does, both countries are bound by the 2010 New START treaty to slash their deployed strategic warheads to no more than 1,550 each by February 2018, the lowest level in decades. The accord also limits their deployed land- and submarine-based missiles and nuclear-capable bombers.
However, nuclear weapons experts say, the 30-year modernization program, which maintains many existing weapons and their computers, communications, electronics, and other systems, is more important than having as many warheads as Russia has.
Trump “says we can’t fall behind. Fall behind who and how?” said Stephen Schwartz, an independent nuclear weapons expert. “It is not clear to me, and it’s not clear to many of my colleagues” what the president is talking about when he pledges to expand U.S. nuclear weapons capacity, Schwartz said.
Moreover, the U.S. advantage is based not on the numbers of warheads it can field compared to Russia, but on more advanced delivery systems.
Most of Moscow’s nuclear force - now being modernized, as well - is comprised of land-based ICBMs whose locations it discloses to Washington under arms control accords, said Schwartz, former publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists leading journal.
The United States maintains an “invulnerable” fleet of nuclear-armed submarines beneath the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that are immune from detection, he said.
In contrast, Russia’s accident-prone missile submarines rarely conduct their “deterrence patrols” far from their docks.
In a fiscal 2012 report to Congress, the Pentagon assessed that even if Russia broke out of the limits imposed by the New START treaty and deployed more nuclear weapons, it could not gain strategic advantage over the United States.
“The Russian Federation, therefore, would not be able to achieve a militarily significant advantage by any plausible expansion of its strategic nuclear forces, even in a cheating or breakout scenario under the New START Treaty,” the report said.
Trump “clearly needs to get a briefing on the capacity of U.S. nuclear forces,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, a leading arms control organization.
The 30-year U.S. modernization program is intended to maintain the American advantage. It upgrades and extends the lives of every U.S. nuclear weapons system – intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range bombers and submarines – and their warheads.
In addition, the Pentagon has drawn up plans to replace many systems with a new bomber, new ballistic missile submarine, and new missiles.
Many lawmakers and experts are concerned about the price tag of the effort, given the high cost of repairing and modernizing the country’s conventional military forces and the budgetary demands of non-military programs.
The costs of the modernization program has been estimated at as much as $1 trillion over the next 30 years.
But a report published this month by the Congressional Budget Office indicated that the overall cost is rising.
Nuclear force plans set out by the Pentagon and the Energy Department – the caretaker of the U.S. nuclear arsenal – in their fiscal 2017 budget requests would cost an estimated $400 billion during only the 10-year period ending in fiscal 2026.
(Reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by John Walcott and Alistair Bell)
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.