Dome of the Texas State Capitol
As early as 2012, Texas Democrats began speculating that Texas would become a swing state by 2020. When I said this to my liberal, coast-dwelling friends, they said, “Keep dreaming.”
But this year—four years ahead of schedule—a Washington Post poll declared Texas a battleground state and drew raised eyebrows that the “blood-red, deeply conservative bastion of all things far right” could possibly be placed on the same list as Ohio and Florida. That turned out to be slightly premature—Texas stayed red. But it wasn’t by much. Consider this: Trump’s 9.2-point lead in Texas fell below his 9.6-point lead in Iowa, a notable swing state. The single-digit margin also contrasts a solidly red Texas in 2012 when Romney beat Obama by 16 points.
While surprising to many, these numbers confirm what Texas liberals have known for years: you can’t fight demographics.
When people find out I’m from Texas, one of the first things they ask is, “Are you Republican?” When I say that I’m a Democrat, I receive comments of pity that I come from a state of gun lovers, immigrant haters, and bible thumpers. They believe that I, a pro-immigration, pro-choice, and pro-healthcare reform Asian-American woman, am just a drop of blue in a sea of red.
But the numbers suggest that voters like me are becoming the norm. Growing populations of Latinos and Asian Americans put Houston at 69 percent people of color and San Antonio at 74 percent. Driving down Westheimer Road in Houston, one can spot restaurants serving authentic Thai, Indian, and Mediterranean cuisine. Texas cities have always been diverse, but recent years have experienced remarkable growth. In 2015, Texas took in more refugees than any other state, accounting for 11% of total arrivals from countries such as Bhutan, Burma, and Iraq. It also hosts the third-highest number of immigrants in the US, behind California and New York. Unsurprisingly, a majority of these people vote Democratic. Texas has steadily become more purple—it’s the winner-take-all, two-party political system that shows only red.
Republicans have noticed these demographic trends. That’s why, in preparation for 2012 election, they leveraged their supermajority in the state legislature to enact restrictive voter ID laws and unconstitutional redistricting that targeted growing minority populations. Those are stories you’ve heard.
But here’s another one: recognizing growing potential, liberals started organizing towards swing-state status when nobody else was watching. In 2013 they launched a PAC called Battleground Texas, whose sole aim is to turn Texas purple. Texans began uniting under organizations such as Annie’s List, Texas Freedom Network, and the Texas Democratic Party itself. When Wendy Davis announced her run for governor, her iconic pink sneakers jogged memories of the good ol’ Ann Richards days, and liberals rallied around a promising, progressive leader. The nation saw Wendy Davis lose by a landslide, but what they didn’t realize was that the new voter base who tweeted #StandWithWendy didn’t plan on sitting back down. More than ever, women and people of color—crucial demographic groups for Democratic victories—began mobilizing against the extremism of Rick Perry and Ted Cruz that had failed to represent them.
It is no surprise then, that many Texans rejected Trump’s cries to “build a wall” and his defense of “locker room talk.” In a state whose urban populations consist mostly of people of color, immigrants, and growing numbers of job-seeking millenials, the extremist rhetoric of the far-right stands no chance in Texas’ future.
Many argue that a diverse electorate in the cities alone cannot turn Texas blue. But urban voters were the ones who showed up at the polls in unprecedented numbers this year. The result: Clinton won Harris County (Houston) by 12 points, Bexar County (San Antonio) by 13, Dallas County by 26, and Travis County (Austin) by a whopping 39 points. Demographics will continue to accelerate this trend if organizers keep getting out the vote. What’s more, many rural counties are also becoming more diverse.
Texas Democrats are tired of being underestimated and silenced by the deep-rooted stereotypes of Texas conservatism, and we will keep fighting to make our voices louder and our competition more legitimate. The Texas Longhorns sing, “The eyes of Texas are upon you.” But be sure to keep your eyes on Texas in 2020.