Fight Fair, You Menacing Mullahs!
You can't trust those devious Iranians. First, they threaten the world, or so we are told, with nuclear weapons. They don't really have any nukes, but never mind.
Now, Tehran's menacing mullahs actually seem to be cooperating with UN inspections, pulling the rug out from under the feet of the war party in Washington and its right-wing allies in London, Paris and Jerusalem.
Last week, the leaders of the US, Britain and France staged a bravura performance of political theater in an effort to browbeat Iran into nuclear submission, by claiming to have just "discovered" a secret Iran uranium enrichment plant near Qum.
On cue, a carefully orchestrated media blitz trumpeted warnings of the alleged Iranian nuclear threat and "long-ranged missiles."
In reality, the Qum plant had been detected by US spy satellites over two years ago, and was well known to the intelligence community. Iran claimed the plant will not begin enriching low-grade uranium for peaceful power for another 540 days. UN nuclear rules, to which Iran adheres, call for 180 days notice.
But Iran cast suspicion on itself by hastily alerting the UN's nuclear agency, IAEA, right after the "revelation" of the Qum plant and then inviting inspection. Iran may not have been actually guilty of anything, but it looked guilty - in western eyes.
Iran can hardly be eager to reveal the locations of its nuclear sites or military secrets given the steady stream of threats by Israel to attack Iran's nuclear plants and the beating of war drums in the United States. Iran also recalls Iraq, where half the UN nuclear inspectors were actually spies for CIA or Israel's Mossad whose main job was developing targeting information for air and missile strikes. This may explain some of Iran's secretive behavior.
The US, Britain, France and Israel have been even less forthcoming about their nuclear secrets. US allies Israel and India refuse any UN inspection.
France's president Nicholas Sarkozy went out of his way to denounce Iran's nuclear program without mentioning that France had secretly supplied Israel with its nuclear infrastructure in the 1950s. A primary reason for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons is to offset the very real threat of nuclear attack by Israel.
Iran's test of some useless short ranged missiles, and an inaccurate 2,000-km medium ranged Shahab-3, provoked more hysteria and rich hypocrisy. In a choice example of media scaremongering, one leading North American newspaper printed a picture of a 1960s vintage SAM-2 anti-aircraft missile being launched, with a caption warning of the "grave threat" Iran posed to "international peace and security."
Welcome to Iraq déjà vu, and another manufactured crisis. US intelligence and UN inspectors say Iran has no nuclear weapons and certainly no nuclear warheads and is only enriching uranium to 5%. Nuclear weapons require 95%. Iran's nuclear facilities are under constant UN inspection and US surveillance.
Even so, the US, its allies, and Israel insist Iran is secretly developing nuclear warheads. They demand Tehran prove a negative: that it has no nuclear weapons. Iraq was also put to the same impossible test, then, attacked when it naturally could not comply.
Now, the US government is again leaking claims that Iran is working on a nuclear warhead for its Shahab-3 medium-ranged missile. Iran says the data supposedly backing up this claim is a fake, concocted by Israel's Mossad. Forged data was also used to justify invading Iraq.
Israel is deeply alarmed by Iran's challenge to its Mideast nuclear monopoly. Chances of an Israeli attack on Iran are growing weekly, though the US is still restraining Israel.
More intense pressure was applied to Iran at last week's meeting near Geneva between the Western powers and Iran.
Everyone expected Iran to stall and prevaricate.
Instead, the pesky Persians fooled everyone by apparently agreeing to ship a good part of their enriched uranium to Russia for safekeeping, thus taking the wind out of the sails of the war party in Washington, London and Paris - at least for a while. Whether this happens remains to be seen. The Iranians are notorious for making agreements and then slipping out of them.
Even so, you could almost hear the outraged neocons in Washington yelling, "Hey you sneaky Iranians, fight fair! How dare you cooperate."
Meanwhile, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, continued to antagonize the West by bombastic speeches when he should be taking a very low profile. Why would Iran face a devastating Israeli or US attack to keep enriching uranium when it can import such fuel from Russia?
Civilian nuclear power has become the keystone of Iranian national pride. As noted in my new book, American Raj, Iran's leadership insists the West has denied the Muslim world modern technology and tries to keep it backwards and subservient. Tehran believes it can withstand all western sanctions.
In my view, Iran appears to be very slowly developing a "breakout" capability. That means the technology to produce a small number of nuclear weapons on fairly short notice - for defensive purposes. There was a hue and cry last week in the US over claims Iran possessed plans for nuclear weapons. More scaremongering. I also have plans for nuclear weapons that I acquired in Japan. You can find plans on the Internet.
Iraq's invasion of Iran that was engineered and financed by the US, Britain and the Gulf Arabs cost Iran one million casualties. Iran demands the same right of nuclear self defense enjoyed by neighbors Israel, India and Pakistan.
But Iran's multi-level leadership is also split over the question of whether or not to actually build nuclear weapons. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is also supreme military commander, insists Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. But others in the Tehran leadership say Iran must have a strategic self-defense capability.
Iran is just as fearful of an Israeli nuclear attack as Israel is of an Iranian nuclear attack. For the record, President Ahmadinejad did not call for Israel to be "wiped off the face of the map," but quoted an old Imam Khomeini speech calling for Zionism to be wiped away and replaced by a democratic state for Jews, Muslims and Christians.
What Iran really wants is an end to 30-years of US efforts to overthrow its Islamic regime. The US is still waging economic warfare against Iran and trying to overthrow the Tehran government. Like North Korea, Iran wants explicit guarantees from Washington that this siege warfare will stop and relations with the US will be normalized.
As Flynt and Hillary Leverett conclude in their excellent, must-read 29 September New York Times article about Iran's nuclear program, détente with Iran will be bitterly opposed by "those who attach value to failed policies that have damaged America's interests in the Middle East..."
Jamal Dajani: Israel vs. Iran: The Writing Is on the Wall
Unlike what happened to Iraq in 2003, an invasion of Iran is not on the horizon; however, the prospect of targeting its nuclear facilities is more real than ever.
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I don't concur 100% - but will agree your analysis is a good deal more realistic than that promoted as 'giving Iran a fresh start'.
I posted an article from when the Shah was buying U.S. nuclear tech for comparison : a good deal different from when the focus is on people 'buying from the wrong supplier' using studied mistranslation designed to mock the figurehead of Iranian government.
I seldom see anything about the Third Pillar of the NPT : designed to encourage compliance by rewarding it. : nor thoughts on how likely it is that Russia - which threatened those who would attack Iran - would provide fuel and technology for a power station if it was capable of providing WMD to be turned against them.
Let those who recall the Cuban Missile Crisis reflect on the likelihood of that.
"On cue, a carefully orchestrated media blitz trumpeted warnings of the alleged Iranian nuclear threat and "long-ranged missiles.""
Thankfully the Huffington Post would NEVER cooperate in such a blitz described by the author.
Mr. Eric Margois.
" ... damaged America's interests in the Middle East..." ----- The US's real interests in the Middle East, when Iran is concerned, lies in aligning its policies with the wishes of the majority of the Iranian people, not the regime. Otherwise, the wrong policies of the present will hunt the US interests again, down the line.
"The US is still waging economic warfare against Iran ..." ---- This is what is needed to force the regime to take Iranian people seriously and to pay attention to their legitimate demands.
Appeasing the Islamic Republic will serve only as a temporary relief, but, at the end of the day the US will end up saying 'yes Sir' to the regime in Tehran, until US policies in the region falls in line with Mullah's.
Mr. Eric Margolis,
"Forged data was also used to justify invading Iraq." ----- Forged data was also used in recent Iranian prsidential elections to ensure Ahmadinejad's second term presidancy.
"Civilian nuclear power has become the keystone of Iranian national pride." ----- The Nuclear Plant is just a show case for the regime, as a symbol of great achievement . This is very important in Iranian culture. If and when the plant starts running, it will be very difficult for the majority of the people in Iran to push for a more democratic system, now or later. The system will always point out its 'achievements' to secure support among ill educated segments of the population.
WOW ,
6 comments on a sensible article.Why i am not amazed..............This is what allowed America an Illegal war in Iraq.
Great article.
Good article. Spot on.
The tears and wails of those who crave war as entertainment would be best salved by those very people joining, say the marines and going to say, Afghanistan.
The rare and insightful entry. Thanks Margolis. Keep on informing the ignorant public.
Fabulous article. To find fault with it I would have to get really petty on literally only one or two minuscule points which are more opinion and don't affect the analysis or conclusions thereof.
This was a perfect compliment to Juan Cole's Oct. 6th blog post (linked below) detailing the same theme. For those interested in details of Islamic jurisprudence, it has interesting points not covered here. Otherwise, they largely echo each other.
Like North Korea, Iran has learned that nuclear deterrence works. Despite the best efforts of the UN, Iran will develop a nuclear capability, with the collusion of their Russian business partners, and the world will be duly surprised when Iran successfully tests an atomic bomb in the next 3-8 years. Will they then attack Israel? No. Further, an attack by Israel or the USA on Iran will not stop their development of nuclear weapons, though it may slow them down for a few years.
The simple fact is that no nation can afford to suffer a nuclear strike. The only time nuclear weapons were used, in 1945, they were used by a country that had them (USA) on a country that didn't (Japan). The possession of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan has prevented war, neither side can afford to risk a conflict that may spin out of control.
Regimes like North Korea, Iran and every other country in the world, are interested in survival and stability. If having a nuclear deterrence enhances this, they will pursue this option. The world will learn to live with a nuclear armed Iran. Just as it has with a nuclear armed USA, France,UK, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel etc.
""An Iranian nuclear latency or Japan option would render Iran invasion-proof. And take forcible regime change off the table permanently. It would also provide a lot of deterrence for any plan to even attack Iran from the air.
The first Israeli nightmare is not that Iran will bomb Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, but that once Iran knows it will not be invaded or even bombed, it will feel free to offer more support to the Palestinians and to pressure Egypt and other Arab countries to do the same.
The second Israeli nightmare is that once Egypt and Saudi Arabia see that Iran has achieved immunity to US bombings or invasion without making unpopular concessions to the project of Zionism, they will want the same deterrence. Once they get it, their domestically costly policies of cooperation with Israel will be less useful. These countries, whose cooperation Israel needs to remain viable as a Jewish state may follow the wishes of their people and become more hostile to Zionism.
Knowledgeable supporters of Zionism, such as France's Sarkozy, Israel's Netanyahu and many US political figures are lying, not mistaken but lying, when they declare the danger of Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
An Iranian bomb is also illegal unless Iran leaves the NPT, while a Japan option is not.""
http://www.juancole.com/2009/10/iran-and-nuclear-latency.html
The above comment is one the best analysis I've ever read on this subject.
Hello Mr.Margolis,
Good post.
We would hate to see Israel attack Iran in any way.
This World is already over burdened with enough problems.
It could do with some Peace & Quiet.
Necessary to solve them all.
Properly.
Thank you.
Moms in Canada
It is supremely ironic, but it appears that the only way to keep peace in the region is for the Iranians to actually develop nukes (which there is virtually no evidence that they are doing) as this would render any attack by Israel or even the U.S. a non-starter. You see, the biggest bully on the block and the biggest bully on the planet only pick fights with weaker countries armed with toothless and obsolete military hardware, or virtually no military hardware at all, as in Gaza.
Very good comment!
I concur 100 percent! Kudos!
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