North Korea: What's next? Ask China

United Nations

Until China agrees to tougher sanctions or other ways to discourage North Korea's military ambitions, the United States and its allies will have an uphill battle other than putting pressure on Beijing itself. After three hours of consultation in the UN Security Council on Sunday, the 15 members were deadlocked on North Korea's firing of a three-stage rocket, and agreed to consult further on "appropriate action...given the urgency of the matter," said Mexico's Ambassador Claude Heller, this month's council president. Members even spent 40 minutes discussing whether they should "express concern" at the launch, diplomats reported.

The United States is seeking support from Japan, France, Britain and others on a resolution it is drafting that would have the council extend and enforce a 2006 Security Council sanctions resolution that orders Pyongyang to "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program." For one, diplomats said Washington is considering expanding a list of North Korean companies and individuals on a UN black list and adding to a list of banned luxury items. At the moment enforcement is up to individual nations to bar exchanges or sales of dangerous weaponry with Pyongyang.

"The United States view is that the most appropriate response to an action of this gravity would be a Security Council resolution," said Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations.
But China, which like the United States, Russia, Britain and France, has veto power in the Security Council, is not so sure. "I think we are now in a sensitive moment," its UN ambassador, Zeng Yesui told reporters. He said that any action by Security Council had to be "cautious and proportionate."

China, which on North Korean questions is routinely backed by Russia, delivers fuel to North Korea and a good deal of its food and other supplies. While experts believe Beijing does not want its neighbor to have nuclear weapons (much less face a Japan that could insist on them also), it also fears a collapse of the regime if there is too much pressure. More refugees would stream over its border. And further down the road there could be reunification with the south and American troops on its frontier.

North Korea fired a three stage rocket from the Musudan-ri launch site in the northeast of the country and insists it only carried a communications satellite. But the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries say the launch was a practice session to develop the capabilities of launching a nuclear warhead, and violates Security Council resolution 1718 of October 2006, adopted after North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test. But a is said to question whether the rocket violated the resolution if it carried a satellite, although the technology is similar, if not identical. Hence the South Korean defense minister, Lee Sang-hee, told his parliament that the rocket fell into the sea whereas the satellite would have remained aloft. The Pentagon gave a similar analysis.

"What was launched was not the issue," Rice told reporters. "The fact that there was a launch using ballistic missile technology is itself a clear violation of (the resolution) which prohibited missile related activity,"

But she acknowledged there was no consensus on that issue, saying "members expressed varying views." (Russia and China were supported by Uganda, Libya and Vietnam, participants said.)

So why did North Korea do it? The theories are manifold. Among them is grabbing the attention of the Obama administration and giving the new president his first major foreign policy challenge in an effort to garner direct talks and ties to Washington. And then there was South Korea, whose current government gave up on the "sunshine" policy of his predecessor. And Japan, in whose direction the rocket was aimed, is considered by Pyongyang to be more hostile than usual. Both South Korea and Japan are participants in the stalled six-party talks (along with North Korea, the United States, China and Russia) aimed at getting Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons program. Some speculate that North Korea, even before these talks resume, wants another bargaining chip - and "look at me" attention.
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