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Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett

Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett

Posted: October 13, 2010 05:35 PM

Twenty years ago, Harvard's Joseph Nye famously coined the term "soft power" to describe what he saw as an increasingly important factor in international politics -- the capacity of "getting others to want what you want," which he contrasted with the ability to coerce others through the exercise of "hard" military and/or economic power. The question of soft power, when it comes to Iran, is contentious. Most analysts seem prepared to acknowledge that the Islamic Republic's soft power in the Middle East rose significantly in the first several years of this decade. But many Western analysts now argue that Tehran's regional soft power has declined over the last couple of years, following the election of Barack Obama as president of the United States, the fallout from the Islamic Republic's June 2009 presidential election, and the imposition of new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear activities.

Others -- including the two of us -- argue that Iranian soft power remains strategically significant and is perhaps even still growing. In this regard, we are struck by two developments today. First, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Beirut -- the first visit by an Iranian president to the Lebanese capital since President Mohammad Khatami went there in 2003. Although White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the visit demonstrated that Ahmadinejad was continuing his "provocative ways" and that Hezbollah "values its allegiance to Iran over its allegiance to Lebanon," the Iranian president received what the Christian Science Monitor's Nicholas Blanford described as a "rapturous" welcome from tens of thousands of Lebanese who turned out to greet him on his drive into Beirut from the airport. We include striking photographs of Ahmadinejad's reception in Beirut today on www.RaceForIran.com.

During his trip to Lebanon, Ahmadinejad is scheduled to visit Dahiya, a heavily Shi'a southern suburb of Beirut, and tour southern Lebanon. We would anticipate strongly positive and enthusiastic reactions from populations in both settings. As Rami Khouri aptly put it today (see here, in the Daily Star):

If Ahmadinejad, as planned, goes to south Lebanon and visits Hizbullah-controlled villages near the Israeli border, we should expect political emotions to go through the roof in both the pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian camps. This will not be a surprise, because Ahmadinejad overlooking the northern border of Israel in the company of his Hizbullah allies is a nightmare for most Israelis and many of their friends in the West, while for Hizbullah and its allies in the region this would be a prize-winning moment of defiance to be savored for a long time.


We do not believe that any Western leader -- or even any Arab leader -- could travel to Beirut today and move about in an open motorcade, as Ahmadinejad did, let alone do so and attract crowds of tens of thousands of eager well-wishers. Security concerns alone would preclude such a scenario. And this is the reality, even though the United States and its European and Arab allies have put significant sums of money and political capital into trying to consolidate a "pro-Western" political order in Lebanon.

If Iran today has substantial soft power in the Middle East -- as we believe it does -- it has that power in no small part because it has picked winners rather than losers as its allies in key regional theaters. Whether we speak of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, or Shi'a Islamist parties in Iraq, Iran's regional allies are genuine political forces -- that is, forces that win elections because they represent important and unavoidable constituencies with legitimate grievances. And, in many cases, those allies engage in what their constituents believe is thoroughly laudable resistance against what those constituents see as America's (and Israel's) hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East. Again, Rami Khouri put it very well:

The United States and other Western powers are unhappy with the Iranian-Hizbullah link because these two parties represent an advanced form of indigenous Middle Eastern defiance of Western power, threats and sanctions. Western global powers are not used to having smaller Middle Eastern countries or movements ignore the orders or threats that emanate from Washington, London or other Western capitals. Lebanon has been a central test case of American support for the majority in the Lebanese government that confronts Hizbullah in some respects, so this visit represents a blow to Washington's strategy of bringing Lebanon firmly into its orbit.

Second, Colum Lynch, of the Washington Post and Foreign Policy, published an interesting piece today (see here) on the United Nations General Assembly's election of Germany, India, and South Africa to rotating seats on the UN Security Council. (It should be noted that, while Turkey will give up its rotating seat on the Security Council at the end of this year, Brazil will stay on the Council for another year.) As Lynch writes:

The election provides these emerging powers, all of whom aspire to become permanent members of the council, with an opportunity to show their stuff on the global stage. But it also poses a challenge to the United States. New members India and South Africa, as well as current member Brazil, differ sharply from the United States on everything from the use of economic sanctions to constrain Iran's nuclear program to the importance of human rights in international affairs. And they plan to be assertive about that opposition.


All of this underscores an important strategic point that we have been making for some time -- in relative terms, the United States is becoming less capable of achieving its stated policy objectives in the Middle East, and the Islamic Republic is becoming more capable of achieving its objectives. This reality should prompt a fundamental recasting of America's "grand strategy" in this critical part of the world.

 
Twenty years ago, Harvard's Joseph Nye famously coined the term "soft power" to describe what he saw as an increasingly important factor in international politics -- the capacity of "getting others to...
Twenty years ago, Harvard's Joseph Nye famously coined the term "soft power" to describe what he saw as an increasingly important factor in international politics -- the capacity of "getting others to...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bahramerad
02:58 AM on 10/15/2010
Tehran's plan to create a state within the Lebanese state by using Hezbollah as its Trojan horse. According to Iran's official news agency, Nasrallah also claimed that in Ahmadinejad he found "the scent of Imam Khomeini's perfume" - Perfume? As they contemplate their country's takeover by Iran and the threat of a new civil war, many Lebanese would smell a rat.
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/iran_marches_on_i8HO1PQZDJcWA2JirCfYVM?sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4cb7eecb098eacdc%2C0#ixzz12PNAx6qG
03:45 AM on 10/15/2010
Vatan Foroush
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Bahramerad
06:22 AM on 10/15/2010
Malakh Parast
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Bahramerad
01:51 AM on 10/15/2010
Is Hizbollah a 5Th column if IRI in Lebenan ? Where is the voice of the Palestinians in Lebanan ?
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uncc49er
12:18 AM on 10/15/2010
A very thought provoking video of the leader of Hezbollah, the guy who is hiding in hole for more than 4 years. Yo judge it for yourself:

http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/2636.htm
02:05 AM on 10/15/2010
Memri TV is Israel propaganda.

This recent video from him does not have propaganda as your video does.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d76xPez4OBw&feature=player_embedded
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Bahramerad
05:54 AM on 10/15/2010
Where is he? Why is he hiding away ? Is he with Mosa Sadr ?
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uncc49er
07:57 AM on 10/15/2010
Propaganda? how is this a propaganda?
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05:30 PM on 10/14/2010
“Why do we have to assume Iran is a threat? Has Iran ever attacked any country,
like Israel has? Does Iran have concentration camps like Israel has Gaza
Concentration Camps? Does Iran have a system of apartheid as Israel does in West
Bank? Does Iran have an unregulated nuclear stockpile like Israel does? Does
Iran execute Americans like Israel does? Does Iran commit countless war crimes
as Israel does? Does Iran force citizens of Iran swear a racist oath like Israel
does? Does Iran murder humanitarians like Israel does? Does Iran launch cyber
attacks at any other country, like Israel does? Does Iran send three nuclear
armed submarines to Israel's doorstep, as Israel did with the three nuclear
armed submarines it has stationed off Iran's coast?”
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uncc49er
12:16 AM on 10/15/2010
Iran kills its own citizens in day light in front of cameras and then denies it. Iran systematically uses rape as a form of torture against adult men and women, Iran executed more than 4000 prisoners in the summer of 1987, and many more. Such regime that does such atrocities to its own people is not just a threat to its own people, but a threat to humanity.
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01:55 PM on 10/14/2010
Wait'a minute? This is Israeli TV? What'a....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN3-2ON2F6c

P.s. Just in case anyone wanna try it, it's not so easy translating Hebro (live) to English, or even "record" it and translate it to English...or any other for that matter. Help anyone?
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02:23 PM on 10/14/2010
Sorry Everyone, it was one of those ctrl+c problems from another thread....so sue me :)

Correct link...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjJNVDXVSXU
02:50 PM on 10/14/2010
Iran has never invaded a neighbor,and does not have expansionist ideas.
Israel on the other hand has invaded and taken land from all its neighbors.
Every country in the Reagen fears and loathes Israel for a reason.
10:52 AM on 10/14/2010
yes yes we know iran, hezbollah and hamas are all democratically elected leaders in fair and open elcections and they are leading their people in a noble fight against the great satan america and the evil jews....let's completly ignore all the facts that say other wise
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:34 PM on 10/14/2010
Who made that argument?
Who are you arguing with?
What "facts" are you talking about?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
12:44 PM on 10/14/2010
Fanned and faved for stating the obvious.
10:48 AM on 10/14/2010
ahmadinejad has to leave the country to get cheers. In iran both the green movement and the conservatives hate him.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
03:09 PM on 10/14/2010
Yes, both the left and right fringe hate Ahmadinejad. But, as the word 'fringe' implies, they only make up a small part of the population. There is a vast mainstream, none of which hates him (some love him, most regard him as the best choice of the field, some would have prefered someone else, but realise that in a democracy, the choice of the majority is who gets in, and support him (while trying to influence his positions to align more with their preferences), and some would like to see him replaced by their choice, but not so much that they are willing to throw democracy out the window).

The reality is that Ahmadinejad gets plenty of cheering crowds inside Iran, too (and travels in even more open vehicles, with fewer securityguards, most of the time)
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harrymudd
11:04 PM on 10/14/2010
Since you love Ahmadinejad so much why don't you move to the Islamic Republic?

It is left wingers with no understanding of Iran like you who love AN. Iranians like me know the Islamic republic is a sham. With candidates "pre" selected and ballot boxes stuffed.
Don't bother telling me it happens here. Two wrongs don't make a right.
08:37 AM on 10/14/2010
From a historical perspective, the allegiance of the middle east Shias to Iran whether it is hezbollah in Lebanon or Iraqi Shias has its roots in being too marginalized by other sects in the middle east, and they were often dubbed lower class and peasants. One of the unintended consequences of the Iraqi invasion is strengthening Iran's hand without lifting a finger, the rise of the Iraqi Shia majority to power and the increase in the clout of Hezbollah in shaping Lebanese politics. The increasing power of the Shia in the middle east created much resentment in Sunni community who were the ruling class for the longest time that they are doing their utmost best to put the Shia back to their place. Bottom line, the Shia's allegiance to Iran is a means of maintaing their political power against the Sunnis.
10:15 AM on 10/14/2010
US and its satellite regime in ME, once again make the same mistake that Great Britain colonial power did in early early 20th century.

Do not overestimate the differences between Muslim sects again.

The external enemy has always united Muslim countries.

You want to see unity of Muslims, just take a look at Hajj Pilgrimage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwk0zl7Y9Yc
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harrymudd
11:06 PM on 10/14/2010
You are wrong. Muslims fight all the time and are totally disunited. FYI: Iraq attacked Iran and there was a long war. Jordan did more to oppress fellow Muslims Palestinians than Israel. Muslim Taliban killed plenty of Muslims in Afghanistan. There is no Islamic unity.
11:56 AM on 10/15/2010
The plight of the Kurds tells you all you need to know about ‘Muslim unity’.
10:54 AM on 10/14/2010
"the increase in the clout of Hezbollah "

clout gained by intimidation and violence….. hey but who cares
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:36 PM on 10/14/2010
"clout gained by intimidation and violence"

Actually that is how the USA does it.
You need to actually read the article.
02:54 PM on 10/14/2010
NO, clout gained by standing up and defending their country against the barbaric Zionist invaders.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wisdo
semantics shamantics
07:18 AM on 10/14/2010
Israel deploys mock attacks in lebanon:

(Daily Star)

"As he has in the past, Ban called on Israel to cease its over-flights of Lebanese territory and expressed the hope that progress could soon be realized on Ghajar, the northern part of which is still occupied by Israel,” Nesirky said.

Israel persists to violate Lebanese airspace on a near-daily basis, either through reconnaissance planes and unmanned drones or by staging mock air raids over southern and central towns and villages. The National News Agency (NNA) reported Thursday that another Israeli breach of Lebanon’s borders had occurred."

For a country that "desires peace" they spend a lot of time and energy threatening to kill people and actually killing people.
07:30 AM on 10/14/2010
great blog Wisdo
07:05 AM on 10/14/2010
There is another theory that is floating around and it is a true Shi'ah bloc, which features Iran as the genesis, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah. This bloc will flourish and behind the scenes the Americans will nurture this union in order to create a major conflict behind this block and the Sunnis, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
This visit is championed by many since it shows that not everyone is so scare to meet and act accordingly without Americans approval. I believe in private the Americans agree!
The Americans and Israelis have majority of the Muslim leaders in the region in their back pocket, they are afraid, turncoat Sunni leaders who work with the Americans on one hand and hold MOU's with Israel on the other.
While the Sunni population from Morocco to Pakistan want to see their leaders return to the shari'ah, provide muscle and restore Islam back into their secular governments.
The Americans are livid at this meeting in public, I believe they cheer a Shi'ah bloc in private since if a spark can be created, this would create a needed diversion with pending Shi'ah and Sunni hostilities; and Israel and the Americans would be free to continue there genocidal campaign against the Palestinians.
I worry for the future and what will this visit mean? Since there are Shi'ah uprisings in particular in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, these Shi'ah factions cannot topple these turncoat governments and surely, the Sunni insurgents will not fall under Shi'ah leadership.
08:48 AM on 10/14/2010
I agree with your analysis. A mixed legacy of the Iraqi invasion is scaring the Sunnis in the middle east with the rise of the Shias and the Kurds to power in Iraq. I grew up in Lebanon pre-hezboolah rise and I still remember how Kurds and Shias were treated as nonentities and untouchables.
10:56 AM on 10/14/2010
yes and under hezboolah everyone is treated as equal
05:30 AM on 10/14/2010
thank you for this excellent article . . . totally agree . . . Iran is an excellent chess player . . . . and it is showing the Us how to behave vis a vis Lebanon, Palestine, the Middle East generally . . . it is more than time the US stopped .. . reassed its priorities and as you rightly suggest: recast its "'grand strategy' in this critical part of the world".

what greater proof does America and the West need . . . to show them their strategy is a dismal failure . . that continues to result in death and suffering . . . .
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joeinvt
the human being and fish can coexist
11:18 AM on 10/14/2010
Iran is great role model?
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Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
12:59 PM on 10/14/2010
Well they have stood up to the worlds sole superpower. They have counter acted every subversive plot the US has made against them. They are surviving in the face of US hostility and that of Israel. The two biggest war mongering nations on the face of the earth today. The only two countries currently invading, occupying and slaughtering other countries around the world.

Yes I would say that they are a great role model. They have the cajones to stand on their own two feet not live on their knees like the rest of the USA"s client states.
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04:42 AM on 10/14/2010
Wondering how many Iranians wish he would just stay in Lebanon for good.
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Bahramerad
07:15 AM on 10/14/2010
Millions .......
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
10:09 AM on 10/14/2010
Of course, tens of millions of Americans wish Obama would go away too.

The reality is that on a percentage basis, fewer Iranians believe that Ahmadinejad is not their democratically elected President than Americans believe that Obama is legally barred from being their democratically elected President.
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
12:38 PM on 10/14/2010
I felt the same way every time Bush left the country, but he kept coming back.
I'd guess Cheney felt the same way.
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shadenelkhatib
02:21 PM on 10/14/2010
I'm still hoping Bush would find another place to live. After all the destruction he created, I can't see a clip or hear a news story about him and still feel anything but pure anger. I would even pay his relaocation expenses!
02:49 AM on 10/14/2010
"Whether we speak of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, or Shi'a Islamist parties in Iraq, Iran's regional allies are genuine political forces -- that is, forces that win elections because they represent important and unavoidable constituencies with legitimate grievances. And, in many cases, those allies engage in what their constituents believe is thoroughly laudable resistance against what those constituents see as America's (and Israel's) hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East."

It is absolutely true and the majority of the people in Arab, Muslim, and non-aligned countries believe that. Despite the fact, we call them terrorists because of the enormous Israeli and pro-Israeli influence in the US foreign and domestic policies.
03:05 AM on 10/14/2010
If we had 100 independent, honest journalists like Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett, US economy, foreign policy, military, status and middle class were in much better shape than today.
05:30 AM on 10/14/2010
ditto Karim2 . . . they are the best
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04:49 AM on 10/14/2010
They are called terrorists because they have targeted civilians in embassies and places of worship.
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Wisdo
semantics shamantics
07:20 AM on 10/14/2010
who, the Israelis or Hezbollah?

Both are guilty. The only difference is the far larger scale of Israel's killings.
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Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
01:01 PM on 10/14/2010
The USA and Israel have killed millions of civilians in their illegal wars. And the USA bombed the crap out of the Chinese Embassy in Bagdad. So they are terrorists as well according to your definition.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
02:14 AM on 10/14/2010
In all the attention to the military issues, the threats, and the propaganda, something that is important skates beneath the radar.

The signing of the MOEs, and the increase in regional trade (and the increase in multinational unified infrastructure) that Iran has been a major player in.

Amongst the MOEs and trade agreements that Ahmadinejad is signing during this trip is one on energy, and when you look at the network of interconnected electrical grids that Iran is part of, the electrical projects in other countries that Iran is a partner in, and that Iranian companies are building, you get a good understanding of how far Iran's 'soft power' spreads, and that Lebanon is on the verge of tieing itself into that network. More importantly, you realise that there is basically nothing the US can do to prevent that happening, nor can they prevent Palestine (either the dregs left over from carving Israel out of it, if the 'two state solution' becomes more than a slogan, or the whole thing if it doesn't) from following in the same footprints.

A lot of attention is paid to the 'power' that Iran's oil gives it over China, but that tends to be overhyped (China could fairly easily stop buying from Iran, and instead increase its buy from Saudi Arabia, but chooses not to because that would give SA real power over China). The power that that electric grid gives, on the other hand, should be hard to ignore, and yet it is.
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Flyingpigs
09:20 PM on 10/13/2010
Well he has see how his troops are doing, the welfare of his satellite state as well as his program of cleansing out the Christians and Sunnis from Lebanon is doing? All I can to the People of Lebanon - Remember Neda?
10:59 PM on 10/13/2010
Hyperbole can be a useful rhetorical device, but more often than not it's a cover for lack of substance.
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01:42 AM on 10/14/2010
What he said isn't hyperbole. And by your statement I think you use more hyperbole than most.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
02:33 AM on 10/14/2010
tutter, your first sentence was right, even if it was totally by accident.

What FP posted was not 'hyperbole' (a statement that exagerates for effect, but is at its heart truthful) but instead an entirely different kettle of fish.

Given that the heart of the statement is untrue, and intended to promote an untruth as reality, the correct word to describe what he said is 'propaganda'.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
12:45 AM on 10/14/2010
Here's a little puzzler for you.

If Hezbollah is 'cleansing the Christians out of Lebanon', why did the majority of them vote for the Hezbollah led coalition in the last election?

BTW, I do remember Neda, but I also remember that a Basiji member carrying a gun on duty is a very rare thing, and I also know how rare it is for an armed man who has seen his fellows beaten to death by a mob to surrender without attempting to use his gun to get away, and how even rarer it is for such a man to be able to walk away from the mob without the intervention of anyone.

Do you remember Bessan, Mayar, and Aya?
10:46 AM on 10/14/2010
wrong again. Basiiji's always carry a gun. I've seen it in iran. Neda was killed by the Iranian government. They are ruthless and scared. Their end is near and they know. Its the same tactic shah used at the end of his demise
11:08 AM on 10/14/2010
"If Hezbollah is 'cleansing the Christians out of Lebanon', why did the majority of them vote for the Hezbollah led coalition in the last election?"

this is not true