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Is Clinton's 2012 Campaign Under Way?
We know Hillary Clinton is smart, and we so can assume that for some time she has known, as well as anyone, that it is virtually impossible for her to become the Democratic nominee for President in 2008. So what could explain her continuing to battle, risking her party's approbation?
We fear there is one explanation that fits too well: that Clinton is actually already fighting the 2012 race. We hope we are wrong. But within this frame, her actions do make perfect sense.
Clinton seems to be doing her best to weaken Obama's candidacy and therefore the likelihood that he can win against McCain. With that result, she could say, "I told you so" and offer herself as the 2012 savior of the Democratic Party. Her husband's statement last weekend, that the Democrats were more likely to lose in November if she is not the nominee, fits that pattern.
Here's, sadly, how the strategy looks to us.
First Clinton defends her continued presence in the race against all odds, arguing that the pressure on her to get out is "unprecedented." To make her case, she compares hers with two other supposedly extended campaigns -- her husband's and RKF's. But Bill Clinton was essentially unchallenged from March on. And RFK? He entered the race mid-March, so his campaign lasted less than three months.
Then she continues her campaign as long as possible -- ideally right through the convention -- all the while pressing themes already proven to weaken Obama's. Her methods:
• Play on powerful racism that in America lies barely below the surface by emphasizing Obama's weakness among white working-class voters.
• Stoke anger about her trailing position among her most ardent supporters -- older white women -- by using sweeping claims of sexist treatment instead of attacking specific sexist statements.
• Promote uncertainty about Obama's religious beliefs, but subtly so she doesn't get slammed. For example, when she was asked whether Obama is a Muslim, she equivocated with "No, as far as I know."
• Point out, along with McCain, Obama's lack of military service as evidence that he will be inexperienced and weak in dealing with our enemies -- not as tough as she and McCain would be.
• Make the full counting of the Florida and Michigan votes a moral necessity, increasing anger among those voters. Although these states would not appreciably affect the delegate count, giving them full voting rights would create havoc in the Democratic Party's 2012 campaign schedule.
• Resist as long as possible the inevitable coming together of the two campaigns, depriving Obama of time to consolidate his efforts and giving her more time to deepen resentment against Obama among her supporters.
As a 2008 strategy, when Clinton had a reasonable chance of becoming the nominee, each of these tactics made some sense. Negative campaigning, carefully designed, often works wonders. But now that it is clear to virtually everyone that -- barring some catastrophic event -- she will not be the nominee in 2008, her actions seem to make sense only as a 2012 strategy.
She is taking a big risk, to be sure. If she goes too far, she will be seen as one cause of Obama's failure -- another Ralph Nader. She must take care not to alienate those whose support she will most need in 2012. But if we are right, she will continue to come right up to the line but not cross it too often, fighting on and on through the convention in August.
If we are wrong, and we hope we are, Clinton will graciously withdraw next Tuesday night when all fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the territories have been heard. She can declare whatever victories she wishes. But at that point, she must join Obama, ask all of her supporters to throw their full energies in support of him, and do everything she can to help him become President of these United States.
Whether or not Clinton refuses to concede at this point, the remaining uncommitted superdelegates should declare themselves immediately after the release of Tuesday's results and the leadership of the Democratic Party should publicly declare that the people have decided who their nominee will be.
Richard R. Rowe, Ph.D. has been active in the Democratic party for many years, and served in 2003 as Director of the Internet and Information Services for the Dean for America campaign. He is a Senior Fellow of the Small Planet Institute and recently was Co-chair of the Transition Team on Technology for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.
Frances Moore Lappé of the Small Planet Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the author of sixteen books, most recently Getting a Grip: Clarity, Creativity, and Courage in a World Gone Mad.
Follow Frances Moore Lappe on Twitter: www.twitter.com/fmlappe
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Frances, Hillary has already gone too far. There's at least 52% of the DEMOCRATIC nation who will not vote for her 2012. These are the Obama supporters. Not to mention those party elders who will not be on her side from the jump like they were this time. Also note that she will NOT get the african-american vote in 2012. The youth who are now into politics will remember her as the hope-crusher. She will LOSE horribly against whomever challenges her in 2012. I think Barack will run again in 2012. He will do far better than her, from the gate. HILLARY WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
The counting of the Michigan and Florida votes IS a "moral necessity". Everyone's vote matters or no one's vote matters. If that gets in the way of the DNC's "schedule" then, they need to re-think their priorities.
If Obama had done well in either of those states and he needed the votes to close the deal, he'd have been down with counting those votes. Instead, he's blocked the re-vote solution like it was his job -- which it is. Just like it's Hillary's job to get as many votes as she can. This is a contest. And a close one, at that.
It's not that close dear. 200+ delegates ahead is NOT close.
A lot of analysis here. Here is the thing. She is the best candidate now. Obama will not win in November. He is just too devisive. If you are looking to to 2012, I would take a look to see why the Democrtaic party is supporting the weakest candidate to come along in years. I will not be voting for him and will be an independent by the November.
...and saying it will make it so. Repeat after me...
Hillary Clinton couldn't even win the primaries because she's too divisive. Now go on and say how you REALLY feel. A Black man can't win in Nov. Because of the racism that's out there. We already know this line of thinking, now man up and say it.
There doesn't really seem any other reasonable explanation for Sen. Clinton's continued campaign against Sen. Obama than the one offered here.
If Sen. Clinton does opt to continue beyond next week, her strategy becomes that much clearer. Putting personal ambition over party loyalty and loyalty to the country is fast becoming the Clinton brand.
Unfortunately, she's already accomplished much of the damage that seems to be her goal, placing the Fall election in doubt from what was potentially a solid Democratic win.
Misogyny is the hatred of women as a gender. Discussion at most batterer's intervention groups
provides excellent examples of true misogyny. Simply not liking, approving of or agreeing with a female candidate is by no reasonable assessment misogyny.
Throwing out wholesale characterizations like this in situations to which they do not apply is more than
rhetorical overkill. It is dangerous because it works against everything that women have
strived for for years. It removes the legitimacy of a woman standing on her own merits as
a candidate, and suggests that if a woman does not succeed, it is surely because misogyny
has reared its ugly head. This primary has been remarkably free of the stereotypes about
whether women should occupy 'control positions' with which any woman over 50 in this
country is all too familiar. Clinton's candidacy was treated as legitimate and viable from the outset. Her own remarks and behavior changed that and that is something for which she ALONE is
responsible.
At this point, Clinton appears dead-set on dragging Obama, the party and the country down to defeat in November. If that happens I have little doubt that the next woman who chooses to run for national public office will have a far harder 'row to hoe'. She'll have to deal with, 'let's don't ask for another Hillary Clinton debaucle'. 'Women just can't play by the rules.' 'We saw what happened 4 years ago.'
She is setting us all back at lightening speed.
You hit the nail on the head!
For Hillary, it's all about "me." She could care less about the Democratic Party or the need to change the direction of the country if she's not the one doing it.
I will FIGHT against her tooth and NAIL! She won't be POTUS in 2008/2012/2016/2020! NEVER!
I think Hillary killed a chance for any Clinton in a future, including Chelsa. I know, that myself and my family won't even vote for her as a Senator for NY anymore.
This article is so right, that is exactly the strategy they adopted since the Super Tuesday when they understood that the nomination was going away, they began with FL and MI, so that's exactly their plan, Bill and Hillary, everything in this article is true.
For Clinton supporters, I repeat here that I, my other and my fiancee were all her supporters and voted for her in our primary in NY, we don't regret our votes but we're so disappointed by this woman that my mother doesn't even wanna here about them, the remaining Clinton supporters are so blind and desperate that they can't even think anymore, they can't even make and have their own judgment anymore, it's so sad, it's incredible, I've been receiving messages from friends in Europe and in South Africa (they aren't Americans) and still they say the same thing, people around the world understand that the Clinton are damaging Obama to run again in 2012, if they can understand that how is it that we here in the US can't understand that ? Are they cleaver than Clinton supporters ?
But it won't work, Barack will win in November, there's no way McBush can win, even with Clinton supporters votes...
If Hillary Clinton failed to comment on the blatant misogyny that has gone on in this campaign, she would have done a grave disservice to all people -- not just older women. She didn't blame her losses on it, she called it out -- as have others.
What purpose would be served by Hillary citing specific examples? How many would be enough? She's not trying to convince anyone of anything. There's no debate on this. It's a fact
She's saying it's not okay. No matter how it's rationalized and accepted and excused. It's not okay. And she's right.
Hopefully, I can eventually read the word "misogyny" with some examples.
Give me one example of Obama's " blatant misogyny ". Otherwise you're just a blithering fool. BTW, I can give you many of Clinton's racist remarks...I guess that's just fine with you though.
what misogyny? be specific. I honestly have no idea what you are talking about. Hillary.... as far as I can see.... has been treated with the same respect as any other candidate. Misogyny would be to not be taken seriously... wouldn't it? Hillary Clinton has been takens seriously. There have been no sexist putdowns..... have there? The only one I can think of was the Rush Limbaugh "We don't want to spend 4 years watching a woman age...."........ surely you don't blame Obama or any of the rest of the media or real commentators (rather than buffoonish clowns) for that.... do you?
Hillary Clinton has proved beyond doubt that in terms of using any methods, no matter how destructive, to achieve power, there's not a shred of difference between the Clintons and the current administration. Karl Rove seems to admire her right now.
She's trying to drag us into a fight, trying to manipulate us into a struggle to expel her Clinton-Rove poison from the Democratic Party, without entirely alienating her base.
It's breathtaking in its fury and lust for power, beyond all reason.
Can Hillary Clinton still take the fight to the convention if Obama has the delegates he needs to seal the nomination? Anyone?
It's not official until the third day of the convention. Same as McCain. Obama can have 3,000
delegates now and he's still not officially the nominee.
Hillary did not equivocate in answer to the question about Obama being a muslim. She said "No" very clearly. The interviewer continued to badger her. She continued to say, "No". Finally, she said, exasperatedly, "As far far as I know". She was totally clear and damn stand-up.
The transcript is availabel on "Media Matters". The video is also available.
Barack Obama supporters get a better quotable clip from only the phrase "as far as I know" so they ignore the rest of the interview. All this talk of Rovian methods by Clinton, and you've got the Obama campaign doing it just the same. Ignore the truth, push the story about what you want to matter, not what really matters. It's the same way that Bill Clinton's remarks about Barack Obama's opposition to the war in Iraq (back when he was a lowly state senator who's opinion frankly didn't matter) being a fairy tale became some kind of sound bite that was used to insinuate that Bill Clinton thought Obama's CANDIDACY itself was a fairy tale. Race-baiting at its worst, courtesy of the Barack Obama campaign.
Right. Just as we got it wrong about her comments that Barack would be a worse president than John MCain, how Barack could be assassinated by the Fall, how Rev. Wright would not have been her Pastor after turning down several interviews to comment on it until it became useful as she fought her Bosnia lies...
WHATEVER. I'm not buy it.
I'm woman (white) and I have to say that I'm honestly astonished that there are still women fervently rallying behind her. Personally, I'm completely embarrassed for women by Hillary Clinton and am just amazed that there are women out there who look at her and see a positive roll model for women. If I have a daughter who EVER behaves like this, it would mean that I had failed as a mother.
I second that XME !
"• Resist as long as possible the inevitable coming together of the two campaigns, depriving Obama of time to consolidate his efforts and giving her more time to deepen resentment against Obama among her supporters."
Clinton has already published her post-primary schedule.
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