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As the world's attention remains focused on the uprisings in the Arab world, Iran's regime is now looking more vulnerable than in the past. Tens of thousands of Iranians protested March 1, according to unconfirmed reports, partially in response to the kidnapping and incarceration of the two leaders of the so-called Green movement and their wives.

The regime knows it has a problem; much like in the Arab world, the continuous and sporadic protests, which began Feb. 14 after more than a year, showed Iranians have overcome their fears.

Faced with the terrifying prospect of another Tahrir Square, the Iranian regime is choosing from a list of bad options. Outraged at the failure to prevent protests on February 14, 20 and March 1, a staggering number of hardliners within the government have frenetically issued calls for the execution of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Moussavi.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who certainly is the only authority able to command the arrest of the two opposition figures, must have felt the need to silence these outspoken loyalists calling for action, particularly because more protests erupted on March 1. According to a number of observers, the government chose this time of the year, two weeks before the Iranian New Year, to arrest Moussavi and Karroubi hoping it would achieve two goals: first, the government continues to claim that large crowds on the streets are just holiday shoppers "going to buy supplies for the New Year." Second, the government hopes that by March 20, demonstrators will go back to their homes to celebrate the Iranian New Year, or Norouz.

Until the kidnapping and incarceration this past weekend of Moussavi and Karroubi and their wives, the government had kept the two opposition leaders under house arrest. However, the protests in February apparently led the regime to believe the two were somehow continuing to coordinate demonstrations, despite the fact that their internet and telephone lines had been cut.

The timing of the abductions appears to be counterproductive. The Coordination Council of the Green Path of Hope -- a group of prominent dissidents who assumed leadership of the Green Movement following the house arrests of Karroubi and Moussavi -- called for protests on March 1, and succeeded in mobilizing thousands of people in several major cities. The demonstrations, intentionally falling on Moussavi's birthday, are intended to express condemnation of the treatment of the opposition leaders.

According to BBC Persian Service, and eyewitnesses in Tehran, a large number of people appeared on the streets of the capital but faced a massive deployment of armed police and plainclothes security forces with weapons drawn. Moussavi's website, Kaleme, has asserted that the government fired into a crowd at one point, and that the level of violence seen on March 1 is "unprecedented."

Kaleme is also reporting that Karroubi and Moussavi have been moved to Heshmatiyeh Prison in Tehran, a military prison previously investigated and partially closed due to its poor conditions. As a military prison, it remains out of the jurisdiction of government oversight, and answers only to the Supreme Leader. Both Kaleme and Saham News, echoing the outrage of many Green supporters over the abductions, named Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in their headlines as responsible for directly ordering the secret detentions of the opposition leaders.

Until now, the websites avoided directly blaming Khamenei. But after the abductions of the men and their wives, the Green movement's leadership has apparently now crossed a new red line and dared to name Khamenei as being responsible for Moussavi and Karroubi's detention.

Prominent clerics are also speaking out against the regime's action. Notable dissident Grand Ayatollahs Yousef Saanei, Assad Bayat-Zanjani, and Ali-Mohammad Dastgheyb, who have been the primary clerical targets of the government since their support for protests following the disputed 2009 presidential elections, have issued statements against the detentions. Grand Ayatollah Saanei's statement condemned the abduction of Moussavi and Karroubi in no uncertain terms: "These are actions and behavior that demonstrate the failure and political weakness of the perpetrators [of the detentions] and agents [of the government] to sway public opinion."

The Grand Ayatollah's statement is accurate in that the detentions represent multiple failures on the part of the Islamic Republic's leadership to sway public opinion or head-off the renewed momentum of the Green Movement.

Unlike some Arab countries seeking to appease protesters, Iran's government is reacting with increased force. According to eyewitnesses who spoke to InsideIRAN on the condition of anonymity, Tehran resembles a "military base." The streets are filled with security forces, anticipating new rounds of protests.

Iran's Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi went on state television last week to talk about "new evidence" against the "leaders of sedition." He even accused senior advisors to Moussavi and Karroubi aides, Ardeshir Amir-Arjmand and Mojtaba Vahedi, of being operatives of the terrorist Mojahedin Khalgh Organization. In Iran, any affiliation with the MKO could carry the death penalty.

Moslehi also upped the ante by labeling Moussavi and Karroubi "counterrevolutionaries." The long-held title of "leaders of sedition" was no longer deemed to be severe enough. In Iran, counterrevolutionaries are usually executed, or at the very least, thrown into prison for a very long time. Moslehi's remarks were chosen carefully to scare Green Movement supporters abroad, specifically those involved with the Coordination Council. Fearing the government would arrest Moussavi and Karroubi, leading opposition figures outside Iran remained silent and refused to give interviews to many broadcast television networks such as BBC Persian and Voice of America. With nothing to lose following the abduction of Moussavi and Karroubi, leaders of the movement abroad have broken their silence and are asking for international pressure on the Iranian government.

The next few weeks will be extremely important. There is a demonstration scheduled for every Tuesday, and the response amongst Green supporters to these rallies has proven positive thus far. It remains to be seen if the escalation of the violence and intensity of the protests will continue in the weeks ahead and how this will define both the actions of the Green Movement and the government.

Geneive Abdo is the editor of insideIRAN.org. Arash Aramesh and Shayan Ghajar are writers and researchers for the website.

 
 
 
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
11:35 AM on 03/08/2011
FINALLY GETTING IT RIGHT: Shirin Ebadi say's "I Don't believe in an Islamic Declaration of Human Rights"
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/darius-kadivar/finally-getting-it-right-shirin-ebadi-says-i-dont-believe-islamic-declaration-hu
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
05:47 PM on 03/04/2011
Here is a guy who was just interviewed by Spitzer. He has a dual citizenship. His father is the medical doctor of God-king Khamenie.

Mohammad Marandi
"Iran is not Libya," says Tehran University English Literature assistant professor

Both CNN and News Hour provided a platform for IRI propaganda via Marandi:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVZxhES3t_w&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xQAMpV4C84&feature=player_embedded
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
05:31 PM on 03/04/2011
"from the article below"

"What is further outrageous in this whole equation is that notwithstanding its abuses of foreign media, and its total ban of major foreign media’s presence in Iran, IRI officials routinely appear on the same foreign media outlets to push their views. Ahmadinejad gets interviewed by every major network every September when he arrives in the U.S. for the UN General Assembly, and IRI’s representatives appear on CNN and AL-Jazeera to push its agenda and its point of view. This is patently unfair to the Iranian people.

Here’s what I propose: let’s tell the world’s media to immediately end all interactions with IRI officials until they allow unrestricted access to foreign journalists inside Iran. This means no interviews, no appearances and not even quotes from any IRI official until the IRI allows full access to foreign journalists to travel to Iran and to report from them without any restrictions.

The IRI only understands tit-for-tat and language of consequence. The only way that it will agree to do anything resembling the right thing is for it to be threatened with some sort of a consequence. And it is also very propaganda oriented. Ahmadinejad basks in the joy every time he is interviewed by Larry King and the like. Taking that opportunity away from them will have some effect.""

The latest shameful interview was with with this entity Marandi who has a dual citizenship, Iran and the US. More on that later.
08:50 PM on 03/04/2011
So? MSM gets to make up whatever they want, like "hundreds of thousands" demonstrated except that in a country with 10 million camera phones, we saw nothing. "1500 were arrested." except that no one seems to have a relative that was arrested. Then all these stories get recycled and re-broad casted into Iran via VOA, BBC Persian and other satellite TV stations.

I would say, banning western media is working better for anti-regime folks. Why do you complain?
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
09:16 AM on 03/05/2011
Tell The World Media To Boycott the IRI And Its Officials
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/onlyiran/tell-world-media-boycott-iri-and-its-officials
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
koroush1336
An human rights activist and totally anti-mullahs,
02:25 PM on 03/04/2011
There remains a question! In this "treatment­" where is Antari-nej­ad. Is he expired? Or they know that he would be an accelerati­on factor which could bring the END closer. For sure he has contribute­d a great deal to this accelerati­on of DOWN FALL.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
koroush1336
An human rights activist and totally anti-mullahs,
02:23 PM on 03/04/2011
What the mullahs, namely khameini, are trying, is a "try & error tactic". This tactic is being used in situations which the system has come to its END. By that I mean, the mullahs' dictatorsh­ip is being kept breathing through a "MOUTH TO MOUTH" "treatment­s"! They don't know when the last blow would come but they are sure that it will come. It is only a matter of time that this criminal regime falls into pieces. This tactic is a NO WIN SITUATION. Either ways (killing the two figures or releasing them) doesn't make a big difference­. In any way the mullahs would be overthrown­, sooner or later.
05:27 PM on 03/04/2011
Salaam baba Koroush.  I'd like to ask you a point blank question.  You were accused of being a MEK supporter some time back and I wondered at that time... is it true and why would you be supporting the MEK.  Please... I'm not making any judgements.  I was just curious.   We have friends who are unabashed monarchists and we don't judge them either.  It just gives me a different perspective in understanding your point of view.  I will not be the least bit offended if you prefer not to answer. 
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koroush1336
An human rights activist and totally anti-mullahs,
04:16 AM on 03/05/2011
With Salami to all those who support freedom & democracy for Iran & Iranians of all kinds (except the criminal Dictators of all times in our history). I am glad, you speak your mind out. According to my belief, all those who respect the struggle against the criminal mullahs, would naturally respect those who are giving sacrifices for this STRUGGLE. In my opinion Mojahedin have given the most SACRIFICES for the cause of freedom in our contemporary history and that deserves the most respect from all those who are really for a democratic & free Iran.

One other factor makes me to realize that their struggles has been the most EFFECTIVE one in this regard. The mullahs & their supporters have been attacking this movement in the whole past 32 years and they keep saying that they have no support and... I mean if that was true, they must have been a "forgotten" movement! Just like many other political GROUPS which mullah khomeini had destroyed. They are still there and they are still showing that the struggle against the mullahs never ends until their DOWNFALL.

So if that makes a supporter of any movement which is in the business of getting rid of the criminal mullahs, then let it be so.

I find your openness for the main issues (the struggle for freedom against the mullahs and all other dictators), is respectable and helpful. That is to say that all of us who do this are the friends of our
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koroush1336
An human rights activist and totally anti-mullahs,
04:24 AM on 03/05/2011
I hope, HP would let this get posted.
01:05 AM on 03/04/2011
It was about oil in '53 and it's still about oil.
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
09:59 AM on 03/04/2011
It's not about oil. It's about geopolitics. Look it up Iran's oil will be no more in 10 to 15 years...Have you heard of Peak oil??
08:44 PM on 03/04/2011
lol ... ya, sure, 135 billion barrels of proven reserves, plus half of Persian Gulf that is not explored year, and 4.5 million barrels of oil per day in production = 10 to 15 years. Check your math kiddo. The go back check this. 20 billion barrels of reserves in US and daily production of 5.5 million barrels, 40 billion in Russia, daily production of 9 million barrels per day.

I have heard of peak oil. We are right in the middle of a global peak oil with 75% global reserves siting under Persian Gulf, another 5% sitting under Caspian sea, and 5% under venezuela, and rest of the world accounts for 15% doing 65% of global production. When you finished doing your math, you'll notice that in 10 to 15 years, Persian Gulf will account for 90%+ of the remaining oil. Whoever controls it, controls the world.
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
10:33 AM on 03/04/2011
Michael T. Klare.Author and Professor of Peace and World-Security Studies at Hampshire College
Posted: March 3, 2011 01:49 PM BIO Become a Fan Get Email Alerts Bloggers' Index .The Collapse of the Old Oil Order: How the Petroleum Age Will End
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-t-klare/middle-east-oil-economy_b_830932.html
08:55 PM on 03/04/2011
Your friend missed a lot of what happened between 1950 and 1953. The British naval blockade, spreading rumours that Mossadegh was a communist, preventing Iran from selling its oil worldwide which destroyed whatever economy Iran, Iran declaring Britain an enemy and expelling their diplomats, much much more, and I am sure, you know a little about operation ajax.
08:49 PM on 03/03/2011
my relatives just came from Iran. They did not even know there were "clashes" except when they watched satelite TV. They say there is too much talk about nothing. The State pressure and vigilance is obvious, they do report the atmosphere is thick, but generally the demonstration are too small and short lived. Most people are tired of both sides, those who don't like the regime, by and large, don't trust Mousavi either saying "he is one of them."
05:28 PM on 03/04/2011
Amazing.  We just spoke with our nephew who was chased and hit by plain clothes basaji along with THOUSANDS of Iranians. 
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
05:51 PM on 03/04/2011
TeeSC: same with me. They said there is a unspoken martial law. Hundredes of basiji on motorbikes in every street and alley even today. I heard the regime had deployed 100 basiji per protester. They had to borrow basij force from other cities and provinces to not allow people to aggregate in one place.
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Wozzeck
Pearl Bay, Australia
07:16 PM on 03/04/2011
The correct English spelling is "Basij", not "basaji"
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
08:48 PM on 03/03/2011
The violence against protesters in Iran underlines the urgent need for an independent and transparent criminal investigation into the actions of those officials responsible, Human Rights Watch said today. Since February 14, 2011, Iranian security forces' attacks on anti-government protests have led to three confirmed deaths, dozens of injuries, and hundreds of arrests.

In response to a request from the Council for the Coordination of the Green Path of Hope (the Council), an opposition body, thousands of Iranians filled the streets of Tehran and other major cities on March 1 to protest the house arrest of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Security forces, including riot police and basij militias, outnumbered demonstrators in many parts of Tehran and attacked them with teargas, batons, and gunshot pellets. Witnesses have told Human Rights Watch that most of the security forces attacks appeared to be efforts to prevent crowds from forming and chanting slogans. Dozens were arrested, the witnesses said. The Council has supported calls by youth groups on Facebook for two more protests, on March 8 and March 15....

http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/03/03/iran-end-violence-against-protesters
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
07:04 PM on 03/03/2011
Continued Disappearance of Opposition Figures Raises Concerns of Torture
Int.'l Campaign for Human Rights in Iran
03-Mar-2011
http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2011/03/disappearance-concern-torture/
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Wozzeck
Pearl Bay, Australia
05:22 PM on 03/03/2011
The neocons' dream of regime change via the Green Movement is analyzed in 'Iran’s Bizarro “Green Movement”':
"In any event, what is clear is that the pathological obsession of both U.S. neoconservatives and their Israeli counterparts [with the Green Movement] is turning them into bizarre cheerleaders for a movement fundamentally opposed to them."

http://rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/irans_bizarro_green_movement
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
03:17 AM on 03/04/2011
Bizarro Green alright. Mostly foreign based Greens who have no idea about Iran. If it were not for Google, couldn't even find it on the map. But they sure want regime change of that nation somewhere on google search engine.
04:15 PM on 03/03/2011
So Huffington Post is employing CIA operatives to do reporting is it?

No photographs to substantiate these allegations, no named "eyewitnesses" to validate them and no reports in other media outlets that corroborate these claims.

Nothing beyond what may simply be the fruit of a CIA operative's imagination.
05:51 PM on 03/03/2011
Who is the CIA Operative here? Care to back your allegations?

You must be aware that getting substantiated news out of Iran is nearly impossible. So BBC and Aljazeera and other news agencies who also report news based on eye witnesses are wrong to report them?
11:43 PM on 03/03/2011
They have no one in Iran to report either.
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
07:00 PM on 03/03/2011
Why is the media banned in Iran? Even Al-Jazeera not allowed to report from there?? Why??
03:32 AM on 03/04/2011
Have you heard of Satellite? which everyone uses. Yes, it's officially banned, and you would be right to point it out, but everyone has it and everyone uses it, no one is out of the loop. They are just not impressed by your Greens.
04:14 PM on 03/03/2011
The only people reeling are the heads of Western Govt and their supporters inside Iran... Rest assured the IRI - is here to stay - no matter what you try - the majority of people support the system...
06:29 PM on 03/03/2011
By the way, if it is so wonderful, why do you not live there?
03:35 AM on 03/04/2011
John

and so you have to live somewhere to be supportive of anything. Even though you have no idea where Hasan lives. So, no one can say the Government in Germany is here to stay if they don't live in Germany. If you say that you better be ready to pack up your bags and go there, according to John's logic or lack of.
05:31 PM on 03/04/2011
Because none of them do.  They all sit in their cushy arm chairs in the West... collecting their fees. 
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parsi
Once you label me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaar
06:57 PM on 03/03/2011
Really?? with 50% of Iran living below poverty level, I doubt that very much. Wait until summer when the impact of cut-subsidies will start to hit people.

http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f7_khavand_iv_over_iranian_poverty_threshold/2326906.html
11:47 PM on 03/03/2011
It was 40% on your last post to me, now it's 50? why don't we just make it 90% and make sound even more dramatic. And this has to be the fault of those in charge? and not the sanctions that target Iranians and Iranian economy? well, despite your numbers, Iranian GDP 3 times the size of Egypt, the same size as Turkey, and one of the top 20 in the world. You can look it up on IMF website.
03:36 AM on 03/04/2011
Radio Farda is Funded by US and EU to overthrow the regime. That's your source.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alimostofi
Astrologer, Commentator
02:57 PM on 03/03/2011
No one mentions the real people who are not part of the Islamic regime. The Greens are part of the regime. They put Islam above Iran. You all need to look elsewhere, where the real people are on strike. http://www.iranian.com/main/2011/mar/labor-force Report the people who are on strike. A general strike is the only solution. But if you all go on about the regime's own theatrics with its own so called opposition, then you will elegantly confuse the world. Look at the those who are not part of the regime ever. Karoubi et al are all lovers of Islamic republic. Are you guys too?
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Quinterius
Accept no dogmas
03:41 PM on 03/03/2011
Mousavi and Karoubi belong to the past. They are not the answer to Iran's problems.
05:32 PM on 03/04/2011
Agreed. 
11:52 AM on 03/05/2011
Definitely not. Never were, particularly based on their stated policies.
02:36 PM on 03/03/2011
FREE IRAN VERY SOON
03:37 AM on 03/04/2011
Let me finish your sentence

"Free Iran very soon from foreign intervention." That's much better.
11:52 AM on 03/05/2011
But not from the Mullahs?