350 Is The Most Important Number of Your Lifetime

Way back in December, and given the topic of this post that is indeed way back, James Hanson, coming in at number one atop Nixon's Cheny-Bush's enemy scientists list, made an alarming declaration: we have already exceeded the amount of atmospheric C02 necessary to maintain the planet as we know it. In fact, the planet as it has existed for the entire evolution and lifetime of the human species where the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere remained roughly 275 parts per million. But enough about homo sapiens, what were we talking about? Oh yes, the planet and the fate of all life on earth. The magic number is 350 parts per million atmospheric carbon dioxide and we are currently at 383ppm.

When Hansen presented a paper with his new research data and conclusions, Bill McKibben wrote a piece in the WaPo spreading the ultimatum that unless we reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, "we will cause huge and irreversible damage to the earth." Until recently, scientists and policymakers focused on what would happen if that number doubled to 550 and whether or not we could curtail human production of carbon enough to stop short of that point. Yes we could, but with immense difficulty.

The big problem is "slow feedback" loops that amplify the rise in temperature caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. Ice and snow reflect sunlight but when they ice sheets melt and recede, they leave exposed ground which absorbs more heat compounding the warming effect. And if that's too large or abstract for you, let's bring it down to human scale with this month's outbreak of dengue fever in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil wherein the army established field hospitals to treat this epidemic affecting over 45,000 people since January or approximately twice the number of all cases in 2007. In addition to several factors that dominant health organizations point out, the Aedes aegypti mosquito likes a tropical climate and as the globe warms, its habitat will expand. And lucky for us *snark* ae. aegypti are diurnal, which means they are around day and night so I predict the next eco fashion trend to involve a fresh new choice in fabric, mosquito-netting. Oh those are poor people in the third world you say, so how about this nugget McKibben spoke about at an NYC event I attended the other night: glaciers melt into the oceans, oceans evaporate and rain down on farmers' fields flooding them to the point of stunting and delaying the production of food in Vermont (America) where McKibben is a scholar in residence at Middlebury College. Additionally, he says scientists are now beyond concerned, they are out and out panicked.

News this fall that Arctic sea ice was melting at an off-the-charts pace and data from Greenland suggesting that its giant ice sheet was starting to slide into the ocean had already begun to make even the revised estimate of 450ppm atmospheric C02 look too high. Hansen's paper co-authored with eight other climate scientists involved their team studying core samples taken from the bottom of the ocean, which allow C02 levels to be tracked from millions of years ago and are more accurate that theoretical modeling. They show that when the world began to glaciate at the start of the Ice Age about 35 million years ago, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stood at about 450ppm. A new Ice Age not aversive enough for you, try a sea-level rise of at least a couple of meters this century according to Hansen.

The Guardian reports Hansen said his findings were not a recipe for despair since reserves of fossil fuels have been exaggerated, so an alternative source of energy will have to be rapidly put in place in any case. Also McKibben and colleagues, many of the same organizers behind last year's wildly successful Step It Up campaign, have got a new project to bring awareness to the need for bringing atmospheric carbon levels within range. The plan is to make the number 350 known by all around the globe, and as Arabic numerals are universal, they are a safe bet (to the extent they are not cause to get you on the terrorist no-fly list) for quickly reaching a lot of folks around the globe. Also, gravy on top is that, it just so happens, Middlebury College has both a leading environmental studies program as well as a world-renown Language School. The just launched 350.org already includes versioning in 12 languages. What's the number?

Follow George Spyros on Twitter: www.twitter.com/susty

Comments

[TheOxygenClub]

Check out earth’s first home page dedicated to the display of the current CO2 level. It’s http://www.themostimportantnumber.org. (Hey, the name matches the title of your article!). This site is only a few months old, and it gets worked on by volunteers as regular life permits. As more people tune into the current CO2 levels and trend, more ingenuity and support for solutions will follow.

[realitytrumpsbull]

Let's see those fingernails. How many trees have you planted personally this year, George? If the number is less than 5, I pronounce you a limousine environmentalist. Lots of money in playing the government and the public with eco-propaganda, ISN'T there? Don't buy a word of it, not even from AlBore...f­igures don't lie, but liars figure, a different group of experts found that sea levels DROPPED this year...go figure. What happens if Mother Nature lights off another volcano in some unexpected spot this year, gonna put a pollution fine in her mailbox? What kind of important work have you ever done to provide forward propulsion sans gasoline? What's REALLY going on, here? I don't buy a word of it, SHOW me. If you're so eco-sensitive, then figure out how to clean up the Sea Of Discarded Plastic out there in the middle of the Pacific or something.­..$$$$$$$$­$$$$$$$$$$­$$$$$$$$$

[Shozen]

reality stinks....­Smells like a neoCon, must be paid to post by Big Oil. Spread more lies!

[doctor4]

Can you insert a link to McKibben's Washington Post piece? Thanks--good work.

[Montanamotor]

I'll give you another number: 5300.

What that means? Well: 5300 years ago, the Earth was uo to 2 degrees Celsius HOTTER than today! But WE are still here, the polar bears are still here - and even the cute penguins are still here! See THiS:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=434

"Also investigations of researchers of the ETH Zurich on the apron of the Unteraargletschers in the upper Bernese country resulted in strongly varying temperatures in the Alps, into whose attendants the glaciers advanced at times and retreated at times. "Scientific and archaeological findings fit together outstandingly", says Suter. From climatic research, it is well-known that in Europe between the 3rd Millenium and 1750 BC, a mild climate prevailed. The average summer temperatures might have been at that time for 0.5 to two degrees higher than today. As consequence the pass was passable over the 2756 meters high Schnidejoch in the summer and represented together with that 2000 meters high Simplonpass the shortest connection between north Italy and the Bernese upper country. The large number of finds is for the Bernese experts evidence..­.."

Stoneage-hunters didn't drive cars and didn't burn coal. So, what did warm Earth up to 2 degrees ABOVE TODAY'S LEVEL back then - other than natural causes?

If natural causes were the only POSSIBLE reason for rising temperatures THEN, then it's only logical to assume, that natural causes are also at least the best REASONABLE reason for rising temperatures NOW.

[Necron99]

Ya know...if I didn't have a life or a job, I would sit down and start pointing out all of the logical & scientific fallacies that you've managed to cram into a couple hundred words, but I don't. I wish I did--it's my future (& your children) you're screwing around with to defend exxon or make yourself feel big or whatever your selfish motivation is...

Mebbe I'll come back later--though there are too many of you & to little time. Let's hope someone with more time than me has time. I hate to let this just sit here,,,oozing misinformation over everything.

[SamThornton]

I'm afraid citing someone as controversial as Stephen McIntyre www.climateaudit.orgg) for anything tends to throw cold water on your hot climate arguments. According to SourceWatch http://tinyurl.com/5m99luu) McIntyre is a semiretired Toronto minerals consultant with ties to CGX Energy, Inc., an oil and gas exploration company, which listed McIntyre as a "strategic advisor." This is hardly the profile for a knowledgeable or impartial observer.

[Sitco]

Or, it may be logically possible that rising temperatures TODAY are actually man made. And, if true, when/if these man-made causes are coupled with the naturally caused rising temperatures you mention...­then we're screwed. I think it prudent to do something about our man-made contributi­on...just in case.

[mydogshakespeare]

Since you appear qualified as a global warming expert, can you please explain how apparently warm temperatures at one locale are used to determine global average temperature?

[Shozen]

There also weren't seven billion people back then either. Hundreds of Millions were not at risk of drowning, hundreds of millions were not at risk of starving to death due to massive crop failures. IF we were living and observing an unregulated climate control experiment, would we not protest?

[lizzytysh]

Your article ought to have a MUCH higher Buzz number, George!

Thank you for doing what YOU can to get this crucial information out here and out there!

[bierce]

We have been doing in the planet for a long time. This is just the tail of the dog. The leaders of the world may see the forest, but the trees need to be cut down for energy use. The human society has been taught to consume at whatever rate they want. I look at this like the snowball at the top of the hill. It is beginning to roll now and gather speed. It may be that all we can do now is watch and fret. It could already be too late.

[garbovatwins]

Actually this story is what you would say is 'just the tip of the iceberg' so to speak. The damage being done to your world is far greater that what you are allowed to know to avoid panic. When your species panics, nothing good ever comes out of it. The good news is, you have nearly 2 more of your earth years before you pass the point of critical mass where the damage being done will be irreversible.

[nypoet22]

sounds grim.

[AuntSally]

Depends on our response. Urgent, yes. Grim? Only if my generation chooses to bail.

Another way to look at it is, it sounds like the opportunity of a lifetime. Want to make your life about something? Make it about defeating 'grim.'