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Georges Ugeux

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China is Not the Problem, It's a Symptom

Posted: 10/12/11 07:40 PM ET

The vote by the U.S. Senate to proceed with sanctions to "punish" China for its currency policy is hypocritical and is a further sign of Washington's inability to deal with U.S. economic problems. It is the tendency of our politicians to blame foreign countries for corporate America's inability to compete in the global arena. The endorsement of that thesis by Fed Chairman Bernanke is one more sign that the Federal Reserve is in the wrong hands. At least the US Senate can be partisan when it comes to sanctioning foreign countries.

We have been witnessing a massive relocation of the Western world's production capacity (not just the U.S.) in the direction of emerging markets. It is the result of, and motivated by, the search for profit by Western global companies. They intentionally decided to produce outside of their home market for cost reasons. Blaming China for the ensuing substantial balance of payment surplus is hypocritical.

Are we willing to pay the price for even a limited relocation? Could Apple sell its iPad if it was not partly produced by Foxconn who runs a modern version of a labor camp in China, where 300,000 Chinese workers are cramped on one single location?

We are now seeing a trend towards the reduction of exports by China. However, this is not translated into a drop in imports into China. The only explanation is that, quite naturally, China is at last producing for its domestic market. It is in fact good news both for us and for China. Are we witnessing the first signs that Chinese households are saving less and will join the consumption society? It is too early to draw that conclusion.

With $3,200 billion of foreign exchange reserves, China is the world's largest lender. Not only does the US Government depend on it to finance its deficit, but Europe, more than ever, needs China to invest in Euro denominated assets.

The Yuan increased by 7% this year. Asking for more is not reasonable, especially since the United States have once again neglected the value of the dollar and systematically weakened it. China is losing that 7% every year on its US Treasuries! It is an annual loss of $80 billion! A debtor cannot request a weakening of its debt from its creditors.

We should expect globalization to level off substantial economic differences. The Chinese live on $4,000 per inhabitant. The number for the United States is $ 45,000. This is not an entitlement.
It is perfectly legitimate for China to care about its population. I urge everyone to read Wen Jiabao's speech at the WEF in Dalian last month. The Chinese have chosen to prioritize the welfare of their population. Who can argue with that?

Blaming China is everybody's game. It is a repeat of the United States' Japan bashing. The decision of the US Senate yesterday to "punish China" completely ignores our responsibility in the current situation. It is of course more convenient politically to blame China than to confront corporate America.

We need to get our house in order. Blaming others for our own fiscal indiscipline will not reduce our debt. The West is cruising for slow growth and needs emerging markets to prosper. From the Arab world to the Wall Street protesters, we are seeing a generation who resent our lifestyle based on debt. Our pension problems are insurmountable.

We are at the beginning of a new sharing of power in the global world. We should accept it with seriousness and a sense of responsibility. The alternative is protectionism and war. We are also at the dawn of a new definition of the financial planet.

China is not the problem, but a symptom of the difficulty of corporate America to compete globally. We must invite China to become part of the solution. It is in both of our best interest. And ultimately, it is the right thing to do. As The Economist put it in its front page, until politicians actually do something about the world economy BE AFRAID. Washington has become frightening: whatever the issues are between the US and China, the Senate's move will only exacerbate the situation and produce no results.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Alexey Braguine
Author of Kingmaker, a novel
12:00 PM on 10/15/2011
As a resolt of American economic and foreign policies, a lot of countries have, wisely, reduced their trading with US and increased trade with China and among themselves. This is leaving the us more and more isolated. Meanwhile China is making lots and lots of small trade deals. It is amazing how China has established economic presence in Latin America and Africa, not to mention Asia.

What is killing the US diplomatically is its military stance. To support it, the cost of the war machine has already ruined the economy. The US is heading for the same trash bin that welcomed the USSR.
TomMartin
Freedom and equality.
04:53 AM on 10/14/2011
Mr. Udeux, if we reduce our deficit now, this will mean budget cuts and consequently more unemployment, as the laid off federal workers join the unemployed looking for work. So this will make our economy worse, not better. So I think we need another stimulus. But I agree with you that we don't need a trade war with China.
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cyclone70
if there was a time to reach for the pitchfork
09:47 PM on 10/13/2011
yet another globalist apologetic that ignores currency manipulation, IP theft, lax environmental and safety regulation, illegal subsidies and other mercantilist market distortions that tip the trade balance way in favor of china

And yet another version of the US worker should be happy with a bunch of imported junk and a reduced standard of living so the chinese can improve their std of living at the expence of the hard work of our own and our forebears

globalism is a manufactured phenomenon brought to us by bad economic and trade ideology
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
khanti
Cultivator
08:02 PM on 10/13/2011
Under US pressure Japan appreciated its yen and since then never really recovered from its heydays of booming economy. US cooperates invest in China not only for reducing production costs but also a share into China's booming market. S. Korea's exports are blooming because they and Japan are capturing a bit of China's share in certain sectors. They also have factories in China.Check out their(Japan & S. Korea) heavy machinery sales statistic to for the last few years and you will see how much US is losing out. Instead of blaming see how to rap into China's market instead. Let's face it not many people outside of US except maybe Europe and oil rich Arab nations can afford made in US products.
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LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
07:24 PM on 10/13/2011
Sure let's just ask China to play fair and not manipulate their currency and not put up trade barriers to imports. I'm sure if we use our nice voice they will be glad to stop trying to push their advantage and be nice enough to help us out. We could even be buddies in the future. (end of sarcastic remarks.)

Did you really claim that our corporations need to compete better? They are making lots of money employing non-Americans...and as long as play by the rules they should. The problem is the rules, our trade policies, need to be changed.

Blaming the trade deficit on fiscal deficit is 180 degrees wrong. It's the other way around.
07:53 PM on 10/13/2011
You can't blame American corporations. They are maximizing profits. You should be blaming the government which allows this outsourcing of jobs. Blame the politicians and special interests. They have gamed the system. Force the politicians to fix the mess they allowed in the first place.
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OMEGA MAN
A wise man learns by the mistakes of others, a foo
06:01 PM on 10/13/2011
China to sell advanced ARMS to our enemies. This is a translation of a Chinese newspaper:

"since the U.S. uses regular arms sales to Taiwan as a strategic policy to contain China, each time it does so, China can retaliate on the basis of international law and support the U.S.’ sensitive rivals with cheap 'Made-in-China' weapons or related technology."

http://watchingamerica.com/News/125386/effective-weapons-against-arms-sales-to-taiwan/
09:51 PM on 10/13/2011
That sounds very reasonable.
05:00 PM on 10/13/2011
Georges...you were born in the wrong time. "The earth is flat, the earth is flat". Ok, look we get it. You represent money. More power to you. You can be charitable and tell the truth for no money or play the game and get paid. You are a winner I agree but your clueless if you think anyone believes this dribble you are printing. But yeah I get it. Do others? The ones that argue your article, well I wonder. "The world is flat, the world is flat". Yeah right. Do we listen to this or smile and chuckle yeah right "the world is flat" poor guy.

Unfortunately your dribble hurts people and those people are my people. Americans. Guess what? I love my country "big time". So don't embarrass yourself. With that money in your pocket buy a flight to China and live amongst your beneficiaries who love this character flaw of yours.
04:42 PM on 10/13/2011
America is just depressing at this point.. the Chinese use currency manipulation to steal our jobs, and the pay from those jobs goes to sending their kids to schools that our tax dollars pay for, then the moment those kids get here they start chasing after our daughters. It's already happening, take a look: http://www­.datemeigu­ogirls.blo­gspot.com
09:54 PM on 10/13/2011
How lucky for your daughters.
04:17 PM on 10/13/2011
Give me a break! Are you chinese or what? The cheating is not a sympton - it is the problem.
The Chinese have been cheating heavily for over a decade and have gotten away with it. America has allowed it precisely because the companies you represent do not want access affected. However, those same companies do not give a damn about the affect their actions are having on America and the standard of living here - and the Chinese do not care either (as you say - they care about their people)... Comparing to Japan? Japan did the same thing back in the 80s - their run ended when we finally developed a backbone and forced them to play by the rules.
China.. Let's see.. currency manipulation... (30-40% advantage immediately in trade)... requiring domestic partnership and technology transfer (cheating at its worse)... and then protecting their market through tariffs and special preferable treatment by government.... no interest loans poured across the markets they are building... etc etc. They need to play by the rules and your bs is just trying to misrepresent the cause as a symptom. You should be ashamed.. our current troubles are caused by a combination of Chinese cheating... and Chinese easy lending... it is complex and you make it sound like China has no blame in this.. they have most of the blame.
04:11 PM on 10/13/2011
Many of us would be happy to pay an increased price for American made goods. Two things need to happen; we need to manufacture quality products and create livable wages so that folks can afford to to purchase. We're going to have to take a few plays from Henry Ford and China's playbook. Take care of workers and to some degree...isolate.

China's actions on the world stage keeping it's currency low, workers undervalued and unprotected, since it's greatest resource is a human resource/labor and they can make up by volume what others have to make up for in output, seems deliberate. A corporation may be a person according to law but nobody is an island. China's actions don't appear to take their world partners into consideration. It is appropriate to issue sanctions until they bring their actions into alignment with their neighbors.

China is at a minimum a component of the problem.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Under Fed yet Fed Up
Business operator
02:02 PM on 10/13/2011
I'm afraid Mr. Ugeux is looking at only part of the story. Currency manipulation is an issue. But only a lesser one.

Manufacturing of products for sale into the US is cheaper in China even if the currency is not manipulated and even if the wages are equalized. There are large costs associated with worker safety, environmental protection, product safety and countless other areas where it is more expensive in the US. We shouldn't have to allow the polluting of China just to get a cheaper pair of tennis shoes or a cheaper CD player.

Duties are not consistent with competitive markets. My company was founded in the US. My customer base was mostly in China. I enjoyed being an exporter of goods from the US to China. But China kept increasing the duties to a point where my customers demanded cost guarantees that could only be provided by manufacturing in China. Now I have a plant in China for the Chinese market.

I still have my US plant that services Central and South America. And I am opening a plant in Europe. Why do I need a plant in Europe? Duties. Again, the trade agreements allow for significant duties (20% for most European countries for my products) to protect their home manufacturers.

If we can't put fair trade agreements in place, America will never be competitive in the world market.
01:11 PM on 10/13/2011
If it isn't cheap Chinese labor it'll be cheap labor somewhere else. That's just the consequence of globalism. One day, China will probably face the same problem
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cj7874
The truth will be drowned in a sea of irrevelance
04:06 PM on 10/13/2011
So true. Fanned.
06:12 PM on 10/13/2011
Wait second. Your argument assumes that markets apply. With a large, very large communist dictatorship like China there is no market force.

Also China is buying up resources around the world and rapidly building it's military's forward force projection capability. It's clear that China seeks a new hegemony in which China dictates to the world.

You can disagree about this. But you cannot deny that China is a brutal dictatorship that makes people disappear.
12:04 PM on 10/13/2011
For those who still believe China is some "Communist dictatorship", I've witnessed FAR more entrepreneurship and individually owned businesses here than New York City. Health care is usually paid in cash and there's no Social Security for most who retire. Aside from the state-run media and gov't involvement necessary to get major business implemented, in many ways it seems more free market here than the US! People don't have a sense of entitlement here.. they need to work for anything they want. And they don't buy with money they don't have as most don't have credit cards.

And for those who say it's not about the Chinese working harder.. well 10+hrs/day, 6 days/wk is a typical work week. You need only look at how well the majority of Chinese students from immigrant families perform in American schools to know that many do indeed work and study harder.

For those who argue that globalization is bad.. that US businesses shouldn't move abroad to expand their influence. You're ignorant of the fact that US households are "maxed out" from a consumption viewpoint compared to developing nations like China that have a growing middle class. How many cars and tvs does the typical American middle-class household own? How many more of these same goods do you think businesses can keep selling to Americans who already have 2 or 3 of each?
01:47 PM on 10/13/2011
Really!!! How many state owned businesses do you have to compete against in america? stolen technology. legitimate patent infringement that is protected by the govt. Please! Im not sure which teapot you were drinking from but. America is an oligopoly. china will never let business be bigger than govt. American govt is owned by corporate america. America's foreign and fiscal policy are dictated to it from wall street. that will happen when you run twin trillion dollar deficits. Corporations ask permission in china along with the occasional bribe. a golden parachute in america will make sure you never work again in your life nor will your children. a golden parachute in china? well ask the poisoned dog food fella how that works.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cj7874
The truth will be drowned in a sea of irrevelance
04:09 PM on 10/13/2011
My co-worker who has a friend in china expecting to retire at 50. Looks like middle class is doing well there. How many Americans can expect to retire comfortably at 50?
12:01 PM on 10/13/2011
Before you start hating on China, take it from an American who's been living there for the past year.. the feeling is far from mutual and most here in China are clueless about the concept of "taking American jobs". The average worker makes about $80/week and works about 10 hrs a day/6 days of the week. Everyone wears clothes written in English (that they can't even read) and I've seen many wear clothes bearing our stars and stripes, USA imprints and all too, but none with the China communist colors or symbols. They play American pop music in most of the bars, clubs, malls, and restaurants I've been to. They even had "Captain America" playing in theatres here if you can believe that! You'd think they LOVED America.. and you'd be right. Not just because a lot of jobs got off-shored here (of which like I said.. they aren't even aware of).. but because many here still regard America as #1. Everyone wants to learn English here.. they see it as leading to opportunities to advance their well being.

Will the reversal be true in the future for America? Will the majority of Americans wear Chinese national colors, listen to Chinese pop music, watch Chinese movies, and all desire to learn Chinese?? Heck no!! Even if and when China becomes the #1 largest world economy this scenario would be impossible to imagine.
11:50 AM on 10/13/2011
The communist are here people. You can read their comments below. They don't believe in democracy or freedom. They only care about using the power of central authority to crush workers to keep prices down so they don't have to work. These are the same people, the same ideas, that run communist China. There is no idealogical difference. They don't believe in free markets. They believe in central government planning. These trade deals are carefully designed to control trade in specific ways.

A clear example is H-1b work visas. Under H-1b US corporations can import foreign workers into the US. So you have Microsoft crying to congress about labor shortages (while at the same time having layoffs), and then importing workers from China and India into the US to replace laid off middle aged Americans.

So enjoy the low prices because your wages are falling to meet those prices! Your wages will fall but the banks will keep getting bailed out and keep your mortgage exactly where it was before H-1b and before free trade. Your families debts are fixed but the government regulates your pay down. That is how it's working.
01:48 PM on 10/13/2011
well consider alot american are high school drop out, few are graduate with engineer degree, even few has advance degree in engineer. of course Microsoft has shortage of skilled worker. they don't use high school dropout to design window 7, you know.