John Edwards's Knockout Blow

John Edwards will need a virtuoso performance at tonight's debate to achieve the dramatic come-from-behind win he needs to stay alive. He's facing an opponent in Barack Obama who proved with his amazing Iowa victory that he is an extraordinary organizer, possibly a strategic genius, and above all an inspiring presence who captured Iowans' hunger for change. And he's got momentum. And let's not forget Hillary Clinton, who can count on lots of money, a ruthless campaign operation, and real affection for her and Bill Clinton in the state.

But Edwards can definitely win - with a slight retooling of his message.

- Give us a little hope
The first thing Edwards has to do is combine his anti-corporate message with an inspiring vision of a hopeful future. Anti-corporate attacks, though they strike a chord with many Democratic voters, can only go so far. You also need to give voters a great hope that you can do better, especially now that most Democrats and most Americans are feeling excited about the possibility of real change that the Iowa result represented. Obama has been very effective at wrapping himself in hope. Reviving Edwards's successful 2004 speech line, "Hope is on the way," would be a great start.

- Talk about Bringing People Together, but the Right People
Obama's message about "bringing people together" to achieve real change clearly resonated with voters. But too often in the past, Obama has brought together the wrong people: corporate executives and right-wing Republicans, resulting in his support for items like expanding the North American Free Trade Agreement to Peru, nuclear power, liquid coal, George Bush's 2005 energy bill (full of billions in subsidies to oil, coal, and nuclear companies). Edwards needs to talk about bringing people together too, but say that he's bringing ordinary Americans together to achieve the transformative change this country needs. After all, Edwards is the guy who somehow managed to win the endorsement of both the anti-coal Friends of the Earth and the coal loving United Mine Workers (in addition to the Steelworkers, Transport Workers, Carpenters and SEIU locals), a really stunning Blue-Green alliance.

- It's about specifics, not about power
Especially of late, Edwards has resorted to broad oblique criticisms of his opponents, saying for instance, that, "You can't nice these people to death," a reference to Obama's repeated willingness to make massive accommodations to corporate executives. These attacks are just to oblique and lots of voters won't connect the dots. They really remind me of Howard Dean's ineffective and overly raw paeans to power in the last days of the 2004 Iowa caucus fight. Rather than saying that Hillary Clinton is too close to lobbyists and Barack Obama is too accommodating of the corporate executives responsible for America's problems, Edwards has to show it. Obama's record is full of dangerous capitulations to corporate executives (which I wrote about here and here). And Hillary Clinton directly lobbied to let International Paper poison New Hamsphireites by burning tires. Also, when you criticize on specifics rather than generalities, it usually seems like a sincere comparison rather than a gratuitous attack. It seems like Edwards's campaign is starting to talk more specifics, but Edwards himself will have to do it himself to make the message really resonate.

An Edwards win - or a very strong second place showing - is possible, but it's going to take something big and new to make it happen.

Comments

[seawolf77]

The Dems will blow it again and send us another loser to vote for. Kerry. Mondale. Dukakis. Need I say more. How could they possibly send us this kid and not Hillary or Edwards is beyond me. Wake up Dems. Iowa is OZ. Does anyone believe Obama has a chance against the Republicans.

[mdtaichi]

Street to Street, Bloc to Bloc
We have a saying in NYC politics: "If you're not prepared to street fight, don't step off the curb."
Obama is now recasting himself as the champion against the entrenched profit centers of the "insurance companies and drug companies."
Clinton gets off the plane in New Hampshire as the "youth candidate." To my eye, it was an off-shored copy editor their camp paid to "crib" Edwards on both his health care plan and his endorsed environmental proposals. That's Hillaryous!
Edwards has led the agenda every step of the way! "It's time we honored work in this country, not just wealth." - John Edwards

[mamacita]

I watched an Edwards town hall meeting in NH on CNN yesterday. He focused mostly on health care, and how we need to fight to get a patient's bill of rights. He's talking specifics on health care, economy & jobs. That's more than you'll get from H & O.

[RPLinNYC]

Yes, same here. Great post.
I would love to see Edwards win!
(+ I hope someone on his team sees
this post!)

[texanna]

I'm afraid that even if he were to get enough airtime to take your advice, we probably wouldn't hear or read about it tomorrow. If I didn't know better, I would think they're trying to starve his campaign to death as they did to Gravel, Dodd, Biden and Kucinich, except Dennis is too stubborn to just go away.

[itmaybetoolate]

John Edwards is the only who can win, and the only one who is talking about core democratic values. Here is a scenario: it is two years from now and evidence of bushie/cheney's crimes are surfacing. What will Hillary do? Squash it. What will Obama do? Respond that further investigation is focusing on the past and we need to look to the future. What will Edwards do? Give the evidence serious examination and respond accordingly.

[ebbtide]

Honestly, I don't think Edwards can win. Indulging in majical thinking is not my preference, much as I like him. I like him and his wife, Elizabeth, but the chances that he can win are sparse, imo. I don't think he can compete with Obama.m That to me is the reality. As for Hillary, she is going down fast, but that does not mean Edwards will win. It means Obama will win.

[castlerider]

Great post. Thanks.

Hope John can do it.