Study: Hillary's Popular Vote Hope a Mirage

Wharton professor Gregory P. Nini (who worked with me on Fear and Courage in the Democratic Party ) and I just released a new study that undermines Hillary Clinton's efforts to claim popular legitimacy from a possible win in the popular vote. The problem: in 2008 the popular vote isn't really popular.

That's because 13 states held caucuses instead of primaries. Because of the challenges of participating in caucuses (fixed times, long time commitment), far fewer people vote in caucus states. Indeed, turnout in those states was just four percent compared to almost 20 percent in primary states.

The study projects that 4.1 million additional people would likely have voted in caucus states had primaries been held in those states instead. As a result, using current popular vote numbers would mean dismissing the will of all those people who would have participated in primaries but didn't have the chance -- and disproportionately weighting the vote of primary state citizens.

And here's the kicker: based on the demographic profile of the caucus states, had primaries been held everywhere, Obama would likely have slightly increased his popular vote margin from the current 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. You can read the full study here.