Sometime in the future, cafés in Kathmandu will be abuzz about a devastating magnitude-8 earthquake, except this time the temblor will have been half a world away, in California, where the San Andreas Fault will have finally ruptured after a long period of dormancy.
Although criticism of the recently released film San Andreas from scientific circles is a certainty, as a state seismologist for Nevada, with responsibility for monitoring Nevada and parts of eastern California, I welcome this movie and hope it marks the beginning of a serious conversation about the real consequences of a large earthquake in modern America. Whatever the scientific flaws of San Andreas may be -- and they are plenty -- the consequences of a large urban earthquake remain unnerving.
With a little help (OK, a lot of help), Hollywood went with the "wall-to-wall" scenario and ruptured the entire San Andreas Fault, extending from near the Mexican border almost to Oregon. This kind of rupture has never been seen and is a highly unlikely scenario given both historic and paleo-earthquake records. And in reality, the magnitude would be closer to 8.3, not 9 as depicted in the movie.
Of course, Hollywood paints a bigger-than-life picture and plays with the truth in order to entertain, so let's try to separate fact from fiction with this latest take on the disaster genre.
Here are five truths about the depictions in San Andreas:
- The trigger: Can a large earthquake in Nevada trigger the San Andreas Fault or knock down Hoover Dam like in the movie? Western Nevada and eastern California occupy the Walker Lane, which has some fault lines that are capable of generating quakes with magnitudes up to about 7.5 (just not near Hoover Dam). Larger Nevada earthquakes can trigger other regional earthquakes; it happened in reverse in 1992, when the magnitude-7.3 Landers quake in eastern California likely triggered the magnitude-5.7 Little Skull Mountain earthquake north of Las Vegas about a day later. But the San Andreas Fault? Not likely.
The tsunami: Will a towering, earthquake-generated tsunami inundate California? Most of the San Andreas Fault is landlocked, and when it heads offshore, it occupies shallow waters. In the 1906 earthquake a less-than-a-half-meter wave was generated. Strong shaking could trigger landslides offshore that could spawn a tsunami, which appears to have happened after an 1812 earthquake near Santa Barbara, which resulted in a tsunami wave several meters in height. In neither case is it a towering megatsunami that inundates coastlines and big bridges. The crevasse: Most large earthquakes with ground rupture have associated tension cracks that can, at times, get large enough to place an arm into, a far cry from the chasm seen in San Andreas. The San Andreas Fault will not swallow up cars, people or buildings. East Coast shakeup: Will the East Coast feel a West Coast earthquake as San Andreas portrays? Although Washington, D.C., might seem to be the epicenter of dysfunction of late, it gets to sit this event out in terms of ground shaking from a large West Coast earthquake. When both political parties see the FEMA bill from the next major San Andreas quake, with damages estimated at $200 billion or more, only then will politicians start to shake. Nothing left standing: Will California's skyscrapers collapse? As two of our Nevada Seismological Laboratory graduate students can attest after recently riding out the magnitude-7.3 "aftershock" in Kathmandu, even with their poor building standards, destruction in Nepal looked nothing like that seen in San Andreas. Here's a prediction: Most damage associated with future U.S. earthquakes will be focused on unreinforced masonry (URMs) buildings and soft-story structures, not modern buildings, which will shake, rattle and sway but not necessarily collapse -- a far cry from scenes in the movie.As a seismologist and the director of the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno, and as a fan of really good movies, my hope is that Dwayne Johnson, the actor known as "The Rock," delivers a good blockbuster hit that does not resemble Hollywood's 2003 science-fiction flop The Core in any way, shape or form.
With many Americans getting their science news from nontraditional sources such as The Daily Show or Vice, maybe The Rock can help start this conversation. California in particular is leading the nation in innovative approaches to preparedness and mitigation associated with "The Big One." California gave rise to the nationwide Great ShakeOut annual earthquake exercise; Nevada (the third most seismically active state in the United States) was the second state to join. San Francisco recently hired a dedicated Resilience Officer, a first, to ensure minimal downtime after the next big quake. What is your city doing?
Nascent earthquake-warning systems, both public and private, are running in the Golden State, and we are beginning to institute systems in Nevada. The California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, along with federal (e.g., USGS and FEMA) and local partners, routinely run exercises to out-fox the next big earthquake. Other entities such as the California Integrated Seismic Network, California Earthquake Authority and California Seismic Safety Commission play their integral roles in all things earthquake.
Nonetheless, this system is predicated on an informed public, and maybe, just maybe, San Andreas can be that catalyst in California's all-in strategy and an impetus for other states to be prepared.
Graham Kent, Ph.D., is a seismologist and director of the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno. He has conducted research on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California and around the world.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.