Why Obama's Shocking Landslide in Newspaper Endorsements Really Matters

Barack Obama's smashing lead over John McCain in newspaper endorsements could prove significant - especially since the deluge began four days ago, just as Obama began to sink in most polls.

By our count over at Editor & Publisher he leads by a better than 3 to 1 margin (103 to 32 at last count). In contrast, when we did our final count in 2004, John Kerry barely edged George Bush, 213-205, and in elections before then, the GOP candidate almost always took the lion's share of endorsements.

What's startling is when you look at that list of large papers that have backed Obama. It's a who's who of the dominant papers in nearly every giant metro: Boston, New York, both papers in Chicago, Cleveland, Philly, Pittsburgh, D.C., San Francisco, Sacramento, Atlanta, both papers in L.A., Detroit, both papers in Seattle, Portland, Miami, Orlando, Raleigh, Buffalo and more. McCain's only clear wins are in Columbus and San Diego, and barely managing a split in Texas, of all places. It's a veritable landslide.

But even more revealing, Obama has an even wider lead in those that have switched sides. That flipflop number is now close to 25, with McCain only picking up one paper from the Kerry side in 2004 (the Daily Press in Newport News, Va.)

The list of switches to Obama includes such GOP stalwarts as the Chicago Tribune (never has endorsed a Democrat in its long history), Houston Chronicle and Austin American-Statesman, plus the Denver Post, New York Daily News and a host of others. Two other large papers that did not endorse at all in 2004 (the L.A. Times and Plain Dealer in Cleveland) also backed Obama. And the list goes on and on.

What's amazing is that one paper after another cites Sarah Palin as clearly unqualified to be president. Yet many of the pundits that appear in some of the same papers, and others, have not ventured to state this clearly (like David Brooks, who has failed to state this in print). It is clearly a driving point in why so many have switched away from McCain.

Another angle: This wave of editorial endorsements, earlier than in past years, comes just as early voting starts or expands in so many states.

True, many Obama papers are in safe blue states but many others are in the red zone. Certainly the Denver Post will help in Colorado, for example. But let's look at Ohio as a prime case.

I argued here recently that while some scoff at the importance of newspaper endorsements, what about this: On the eve of the 2004 vote, I looked at the 15 top toss-up states and picked the winner for each - based purely on newspaper endorsements (size and number). I got 14 right, only missing on Florida.

I gave Ohio to Bush based largely on the stance of the two largest papers in the state: The Columbus Dispatch backed Bush (after much wrangling) while the Cleveland Plain Dealer sat it out. Sure enough, Bush won a squeaker.

But this time around, the Plain Dealer has backed the Democrat, and most of the other middle-sized city papers have also come out for him (Dayton, Akron, etc.), with the Canton Repository, a Bush backer in 2004 switching to Obama.

So scoff if you like--but when I make my toss-up picks in early November, most likely I will be putting Ohio in the Obama column. And as goes, Ohio....

For the E&P count and numerous other stories on this issue: go here
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Greg Mitchell is the editor of Editor & Publisher. His latest book on the media and Iraq is "So Wrong for So Long."

Comments

[serena1313]

Obama is ahead in:

Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico

also in Florida, Colorado and Virginia

Obama is running even in: Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio

He is threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia

But let's give McCain Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada he gets to 261 EV while Obama has 277 electoral votes with Virginia. But if McCain gets Pennsylvania the numbers switch: McCain: 277 to Obama's 261.

If Obama wins all of Kerry's states (252 EV) he has 3 options to get to 270 plus:

1) 1 state strategy: Ohio or Florida

2) 2 state strategy: 2 small states: Iowa and Virginia or New Mexico

3) 3 state strategy: Iowa and New Mexico and Colorado

Right now McCain is playing defense in states Bush won easily: N.C., Va., Fla., Mo., In., Nv., Ga., N.D., and Ohio. So that leaves him no other choice than to go after Pa.

There is, however, at best a slim to no chance at all of McCain turning Pennsylvania red. If McCain loses Virginia some say the race will pretty much be over on election night. He trails Obama by high-single digits to double-digits in both states.

Granted this could change. But this is basically where the election stands at the moment.

[priorato]

Republicans should be squirming right now because they are on the verge of losing BIG in the Congress AND losing control over the Executive if Obama can seal the deal.

The Pendulum will swing the other way for the next four years... at least. What should really be questioned is the Republicans putting Palin on the ticket. Why not Kay Bailey Hutchison or Libby Dole? If you're going to do the unprecedented, why not do it with savvy? The Palin pick reeks and makes me think there might be a rat in the McCain camp who offered up this pick looking to sink the ship and wait for 2012.

[spartanmom]

You betcha!

I bet the repugs were planning on losing this election because they knew what kind of financial meltdown was coming. They let the old man have the nomination. They thought Hillary would be in the WH and it would be lain at her door.

BUT the Obama phenom(a?) caught them off guard and then the gods of timing frowned on them.

[4wehttam]

Hope your right.

[teacheng]

This also goes to defeating the post-election "we wuz robbed" Limbaugh voters perception that there was some sort of voter fraud. The more written evidence of the huge upwelling of support for Obama, the better.

[HeevenSteven]

Someone send this to Rush Limbaugh, so he can claim these papers are endorsing based on race.

[Martee]

Anyone who can read is already voting for Obama.

[Whatashame]

I am more worried about the electonic machines in Virginia that keeps switching the vote from obama to McCain. This needs to get out there and people need to take their camera into the booth to document the switching as proof. The Republicans are at it again trying to steal another election.

I am more worried about the electonic machines in Virginia that keeps switching the vote from obama to McCain. This needs to get out there and people need to take their camera into the booth to document the switching as proof. The Republicans are at it again trying to steal another election.

I am more worried about the electonic machines in Virginia that keeps switching the vote from obama to McCain. This needs to get out there and people need to take their camera into the booth to document the switching as proof. The Republicans are at it again trying to steal another election.

I am more worried about the electonic machines in Virginia that keeps switching the vote from obama to McCain. This needs to get out there and people need to take their camera into the booth to document the switching as proof. The Republicans are at it again trying to steal another election.

[ChewyToy22]

Amen! So am I. Let people vote for whomever they choose but let them vote.

I don't care about polls, endorsements, racism or the smear campaign, but I care about this outright cheating. Let the people cast their vote for whomever they choose! This is inexcusable!

[RantingTommy]

McCain is up against this:


Hope Defeats Hate in 2008:
(the video giving Repubs heartburn and Dems the warm fuzzies)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfZxP3hOCcc


He's toast

Progressive Jazz (with RantingTommy on piano):
http://ere.digi-one.com

[4wehttam]

That was great music ......your quite talented. Thank you for sharing.

[spartanmom]

Thanks Tommy. Great music. Great images.
I made the Huffpo photo of the St. Louis rally my desktop!

[WarrenPeace]

Please do not count on Ohio to be enlightened.

I live in Ohio, and we have not given a majority of votes to the Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson ran in 1964.

The issues that small town Ohioans vote on are fear of not being able to hunt (a completely groundless fear, I should add) and fear that a tsunami of gay marriages will ruin the sanctity of holy wedlock (also, obviously groundless).

That's it. That's rural Ohio.

Better to count on Virginia.

[ohioan73]

Metro Ohio is no better. Its full of people who move from rural Ohio.

[stepintothelight]

That is why Ohio is basically known as Northern Kentucky.

[ManyColored]

It might mean that a lot of newspaper editors like Obama. Other than that, it doesn't mean a hill of beans. And he's my guy. But I don't take newspaper endorsements into account in any way as far as shaping public opinion.

[BrianMac]

But that's just you. You're decided. We're talking more about the undecided.

[eztempo]

The significance of rock-ribbed Republican newspaper editorial boards endorsing Obama is the gathering split in the Republican Party -- that divide between traditional Republicans and the "socially conservative" evangelical Frankenstein created by the likes of Richard Viguerie to elect Reagan, back when, and more recently mobilized by Karl Rove to elect "W" and, now, John McCain.

These editors are now being derisively called "Rockefeller Republicans," but they've got the money to shut out the fundamentalists by 2012. But, it's gonna get ugly twixt now and then!

[englishprof]

I think it would be much more shocking if the majority of newspapers did NOT endorse Obama. Some, notably the CHICAGO TRIBUNE, were idiotic enough to endorse Bush in 2004, but why would they want to make fools of themselves again?

[ReesieKitty]

Ok people- this is truly amazing! My parents live in a small town in Ohio with a small local paper. Normally it is very conservative- almost to the point of being silly. But it is really popular in the rural area where they live. That paper came out this weekend and ENDORSED OBAMA! Seriously, I cannot tell you how big a deal this is. They will probably get all kinds of crazy hate mail and threats about it. But the fact that they did endorse for Obama is huge. To me it is a real signifier of a change of attitude and people paying more attention to what's really going on and less attention to Rush Limbaugh. I was so happy when my mom told me this!

[ChewyToy22]

No matter which candidate the papers endorse there is one stark fact that won't make it matter: Obama is black. Some people will not vote for a black man no matter who endorses him. I am appalled at how very racism these so-called "United" States of America remain. And the worst part is, it is being fostered by the "conservatives", who claim to be religious. No wonder people hate religion so.

[AlteSoldier]

Block the Vote

Will the GOP's campaign to deter new voters and discard Democratic ballots determine the next president?


These days, the old west rail hub of Las Vegas, New Mexico, is little more than a dusty economic dead zone amid a boneyard of bare mesas. In national elections, the town overwhelmingly votes Democratic: More than 80 percent of all residents are Hispanic, and one in four lives below the poverty line. On February 5th, the day of the Super Tuesday caucus, a school-bus driver named Paul Maez arrived at his local polling station to cast his ballot. To his surprise, Maez found that his name had vanished from the list of registered voters, thanks to a statewide effort to deter fraudulent voting. For Maez, the shock was especially acute: He is the supervisor of elections in Las Vegas.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote

http://crooksandliars.com/cernig/assault-democracy#comment-889433

Friends don’t ask friends to vote on Provisional Ballots!

[NoSillyName]

Gee, I can't wait to see what happens when I show up at the County Clerk's office in dead ol' LV.

[NoSillyName]

Actually the mesas aren't "bare"; its pretty green in Northern NM where the mountains meet the plains. "Las Vegas" means "The Meadows".

[booker52]

What the Palin pick did what highlight Sen McCain's poor judgement. Gee I am not a pundit, but even I saw this one. Duh!!!! The wheels have come off the bus and this campaign is in the ditch.

[honestpolitician]

And more endorsements to come... It's clear, Palin was an irresponsible pick - pure gimmick to energize the GOP party, but not to lead....She is as good as cheerleader...no a leader for presidency.

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