Democrats must win swing states in 2016 to prevent Trump or another Republican from sitting in the Oval Office. Since voters in general elections normally won't vote for a candidate they don't like or at least find trustworthy, it's imperative that a Democratic nominee hold positive favorability ratings going into Election Day.
I explain in great detail in my latest YouTube segment why Hillary Clinton is unelectable due to negative favorability polls nationwide and within swing states.
Also, it used to be important not have an ongoing FBI investigation linked to emails, but any controversy related to the former Secretary of State is viewed as a badge of honor to certain voters. Nonetheless, electability is always tied to winning battleground states, and Hillary Clinton faces an uphill battle pertaining to electoral votes in these regions.
Regarding swing states in 2016, Quinnipiac University's July and August Swing State Polls highlight that voters in Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania don't find Hillary Clinton to be trustworthy:
Colorado voters say 62 - 34 percent that Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy; 52 - 46 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 57 - 39 percent that she does not care about their needs and problems.
Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Iowa voters say 59 - 33 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 52 - 43 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 55 - 39 percent.
Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 55 - 39 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 54 - 42 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 50 - 45 percent.
Clinton gets a negative 37 - 55 percent favorability rating and voters say 64 - 32 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.
Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 36 - 54 percent favorability rating and say 60 - 34 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.
Pennsylvania voters give Clinton a negative 38 - 55 percent favorability rating and say 63 - 32 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.
A total of 95 electoral votes among these states could be lost because voters don't find Clinton to be honest or trustworthy in 2016.
Also according to Quinnipiac, voters in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia believe Clinton "does not care about their needs and problems."
If you base Clinton's inevitability upon poll numbers, then make sure to include these facts in your narrative.
Low voter turnout linked to negative favorability numbers could result in a Republican victory in 2016, and when CBS News writes that within the Democratic Party "fourteen percent would not support" Hillary Clinton in an election, negative favorability is the culprit.
As for why I'm voting only for Bernie Sanders, as a registered Democrat since 1997, I explain my thought process in this YouTube segment.
In fact, CBS News also states that among Democrats, "Twenty-seven percent would support her with some reservations and another 11 percent would only back her because she is the nominee."
A great many progressives simply won't show up to the polls with a Clinton nomination (Hillary Clinton has neoconservative advisers, she once supported the TPP, Keystone XL, opposed gay marriage, etc.), and this sentiment is backed up by favorability ratings.
The same polls used to extol Hillary Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders among Democrats are also the same polls that illustrate voters nationwide don't trust and don't view the former Secretary of State in a favorable manner. According to Huffpost Pollster's Hillary Clinton Favorability Rating, the former Secretary of State has negative favorability ratings in 9 out of 10 national polls:
AP-GfK (web): 41 48 Unfavorable +7
Morning Consult: 47 46 Favorable +1
NBC/WSJ: 39 48 Unfavorable +9
Polling Society: 42 55 Unfavorable +13
CNN: 46 50 Unfavorable +4
Morning Consult: 44 51 Unfavorable +7
YouGov/Economist: 43 49 Unfavorable +6
ABC/Post: 47 49 Unfavorable +2
CBS: 33 53 Unfavorable +20
Morning Consult: 42 53 Unfavorable +11
While Clinton only edged out a negative favorability by 1 point in the Morning Consult Poll, she's viewed as unfavorable by a startling margin of 20 points according to CBS. Compared to 2008 when Clinton barely had positive favorability ratings, almost every measurement of Hillary Clinton's favorability within polls today show a candidate who isn't loved by the majority of voters.
In addition, Newsweek explains in an article titled "The Likability Factor" that Americans vote for people they find "congenial," not candidates they dislike for some reason:
In 1984, Reagan struck voters as about 20 percent more likeable than Mondale. Bush defeated Dukakis largely because he "triumphed in the congeniality competition"--and later lost to Clinton largely because he didn't. After the Oct. 17, 2000 debate, voters rated Bush the more likable candidate, 60-30; four years later, Dubya whipped Kerry 52-41 in the same department. In other words, the candidate who won the debates may not have won the subsequent election -- but the candidate who came off as most congenial almost always did.
While the Benghazi marathon endeared Clinton to supporters, not all Americans view her defiance amidst controversy as presidential. Furthermore, Trump is also viewed negatively by voters, but his brand feeds off this controversy; he's benefited politically from pandering to the nativist and xenophobic elements of the GOP.
Remember, Hillary Clinton's emails are the subject of an investigation, not Clinton. As for the uproar, Clinton has apologized via Facebook, saying "I'm sorry about it, and I take full responsibility."
Like Iraq, gay marriage, and other issues, Clinton has taken full responsibility for a prior viewpoint or decision, explained that her initial viewpoint or decision wasn't the right one, but was originally done nonetheless with the best intent, and moved on to support the prevailing viewpoint, or decision deemed prudent.
Also, the Clinton campaign's perpetual use of euphemisms, from "witch hunt," "mistake," "evolve," "convenience," "Benghazi," "BS scandal," "shouting," and "responsibility" ("I take full responsibility" is a phrase used often) contributes to the viewpoint that the former Secretary of State isn't trustworthy.
Nationwide, not only does Clinton have negative favorability numbers that even reached 55 percent according to one CNN poll, but Yahoo writes that "57 percent of Americans say she is not honest and trustworthy."
Nobody wins a general election when close to 60 percent of Americans don't trust the candidate.
While it's virtually impossible to convince many Clinton supporters that the FBI's investigation of her emails is different form the GOP's investigation of Benghazi, controversy is continually linked to the former Secretary of State. There are also issues with foreign donors and weapons deals tied to her tenure as Secretary of State, but again, any mention of poor decision-making is linked to the GOP's Benghazi hearings.
Finally, numerous polls show Bernie Sanders already defeats Donald Trump by a wider margin than Hillary Clinton in a general election. Sanders also has higher favorability ratings than Clinton or Trump and is a less polarizing figure.
What has taken Clinton and Trump decades and billions of dollars in name recognition to accomplish, Bernie Sanders has done with grass roots organizing and fundraising. Bernie Sanders surged from less than 1 percent last year to 29 percent support within the Democratic Party according to a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll. This surge will continue because of how polling trajectory is tied to both campaigns; Hillary is perpetually defending against scandal while Bernie is free to focus on issues. In fact, when Clinton isn't turning Benghazi into the political equivalent of the Alamo, or mentioning the NRA incessantly, she often times works very hard to copy Bernie's progressive stances. In a very real sense, Bernie Sanders is the only electable Democrat for president, and also the only person setting the Democratic agenda in terms of ideas and policies in 2016.
How will Donald Trump’s first 100 days impact YOU? Subscribe, choose the community that you most identify with or want to learn more about and we’ll send you the news that matters most once a week throughout Trump’s first 100 days in office. Learn more