This is no longer a smoke screen or a typical Iranian ploy or even a merchant's negotiation tactic. Hezbollah, Iran's Lebanese power house, has made it clear: Lebanon could soon become an Iranian front basis, a thousand miles closer to Europe and a stone's throw from Israel's northern border. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit last month to Lebanon marked Iran's next move in the region. Iran has decided to openly become a major player in the Middle East, and give the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri an offer it can't refuse: extricate Hezbollah from the forthcoming turmoil likely to be stirred by the imminent accusation of Hezbollah by an International Tribunal in the investigation of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the current Prime Minister's father, or start packing.
According to a report published Monday by the Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper, Hezbollah has sent a strong and bold signal of its intentions to corner Hariri and take effective control of Lebanon. Hezbollah conducted a simulation of the zero hour to demonstrate its ability to maintain a security and military grip on Lebanon, thereby giving its Iranian master the coveted reins over Lebanon. The newspaper also reports that the simulation preceded an electronic Israeli simulation for a future war with Hezbollah.
Why now?
Hasan Nassarallah, Hezbollah's leader, understands that the moment of truth is approaching fast. It is widely expected that the International Tribunal for the investigation of the assassination of Rafik Hariri will conclude that Hezbollah is responsible for Hariri's death. Therefore, it's not a coincidence that Hezbollah flexed a muscle demonstrating its ability to deploy security and political forces and effectively control Lebanon, without bloodshed and without targeting citizens or residential areas.
The fast deployment was carried out in less than two hours, and was "designed to hold a security and military grip on large areas of Lebanon," Al-Akhbar wrote. The report said that the targets included centers and sites as well as political, military and security figures. The report said Hezbollah's plan includes pinning down the Lebanese officials' whereabouts and arresting them "in order to curtail their movement and get hold of major cities in Lebanon."
Why did Hezbollah go public now?
The public disclosure by Hezbollah of its military maneuvers and its intended political message is unusual for this secretive organization. However, the prospects of victory made Hezbollah take that move. They are taking advantage of a rare opportunity: the other major players are busy. The U.S is preoccupied with the mid-term elections and the Saudis are busy basking in the glory of helping the U.S detect the potentially fatal bomb packages sent from Yemen. Behind the scene, Saudi King Abdullah is also attempting to broker a settlement that would leave both Iran and the U.S out of the picture. Israel is monitoring the situation closely, but is making no overt moves.
The message that comes from Hezbollah and Tehran to the West is clear. Get rid of the International Tribunal for the investigation of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, or face turning Lebanon into an Iranian base.
What could the U.S or the U.N do?
As long as there's a legitimate government in Lebanon, it can look back to see what previous Lebanese governments did under similar circumstances: cry for outside help.
In 1958 a rebellion broke out in Lebanon, and 5,000 U.S Marines were sent to Beirut following a request of the Lebanese government. After the crisis subsided, a new government was formed and the Marines left.
In 1982, following repeated attacks on its civilian centers by the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Israel invaded Lebanon. Ten days later, the Israeli Army were entrenched outside Beirut, forcing Yasser Arafat, the PLO leader, to leave Lebanon under the auspices of a Multinational Force comprised of U.S. Marines and French and Italian forces.
Will the U.S or other western nations agree to intervene again in Lebanon? That will not be an easy decision. On April 18, 1983, the U.S. embassy in West Beirut was bombed, killing 63 people. Later this year the Multinational Force suffered a devastating blow when suicide bombers drove a truck laden with explosives into the U.S. Marine and French Paratrooper barracks in Beirut, killing 241 American and 58 French soldiers. Therefore, with a growing opposition in the U.S to the war in Afghanistan, it is unclear what the U.S administration will do: send troops again, or sit on the sideline watching the Lebanese government collapse into the receiving Iranian hands.
In this zero sum game, the clever merchants of Iran created again a win-win situation for themselves, and a lose-lose situation for the West. Unless the West intervenes, Lebanon's fate is doomed. It is too coveted a prize for the Iranians to let go, under any circumstances. On the other hand, U.S intervention could be costly in human lives and may only delay the process, not eliminate it. The unavoidable conclusion is that the U.S and allies must choose the lesser evil. A bold and immediate move led by the U.N or the U.S, or we will soon see Lebanon as an Iranian base on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703665904575600374005892944.html
Big Deal. Iran is surrounded by American "bases" Iraq is already an American Base, Afghanistan is an American Base. Israel is an American proxy and nuclear power.
If the problem is undue influence by outside powers then the USA is the main culprit in this area.
If halting the growth of Iranian power in the region is a goal - then it might have been a bad Idea to destroy Iraq?
If Israel's security is the goal - why allow them to continue their colonial expansion into the west bank?
Is it again because of oil? Is it again because we would like to have it without paying for it?
Wanting someones oil is never a good reason to start a war!
Let's not isolate Lebanese and work with them to empower their modern minded people and organizations. Hezbollah is not that powerful if it's contained.
Hezboullah's Lebanon is, however, just a stepping stone in Iran's hegemonistic program. That program is built on fuelling and exploiting the frustrations of Shia minorities, long oppressed in Sunni-dominated Arab world. Iran is behind the Huthi insurgency in Yemen and Shia uprisings in (predominantly Shia) Bahrain, as well as in Saudi Arabia itself. Of course Iran has, for years now, fuelled inter-sectarian strife in Iraq. The ensuing berserk violence caused tens of thousands of innocent casualties, people who were butchered simply because they "belonged" to the wrong sect. As customary, the infidel West got blamed for those innocent victims…
Syria (whose leaders belong to the Alawi minority – Shia in all but name) is a key Iranian ally.
Nor is Iran's meddling confined to the Arab world. It seeks to strengthen its influence among the Shia minorities in Afghanistan (the much-oppressed Hazaras) and Pakistan.
We need to find creative ways of relegating the current Iranian mullahs' regime from the Middle East back to the Middle Ages, where it undoubtedly belongs.
Lets face it. These people want to live their own culture up. They are Muslims in the Middle East, and we want to make them West in the Middle East, just because the Zionist State of Israel is there!
But only truth and nature will endure! The Middle Eastern culture will prevail THERE, whether we like it or not. It is like Western Culture will prevail in North America, so is the situation in the Middle East. Oriental (Arabic, Iranian, Turkish) cultures will prevail, and NOT the Western influenced JEWISH ZIONIST culture there.
And as for the story between Hezbollah and Future Movement (Shia and Sunni) this is a very old game and conflict, but Arabian Lebanese can live peacefully because their culture allow that, Unless Western Hatred intervene through Israel and spread wars again, like we did with the Indians!
Furthermore, Israel Nuclear should be the focus and not the allegedly Iranian one. Iraq had no Nuke and we went there to damage the country and bring it down into lawlessness, in the name of Democracy.
What's with this war rhetoric, can Iranian bases in and abroad all together be a match for even one US base, let say Diego Garcia!
There is this hysteria wrapped around facts in western media to portray Iran as a dangerous player which in fact she is not, just by judging her military or other capabilities in international arenas!
Previously, Syria was accused for mastermineding and killing the late prime minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri and as a consequence, Syria was forced to pack up and leave lebanon. Accusing Syria worked, Syria and its influence in Lebanon has almost disappered.
Now the "International Tribunal" set up by the West's help is about to declare Hezbollah the culprit for the same crime. So was Syria made a scapegoat to get it out of Lebanon then? Or is Hezbollah being scapegoated now?
What is the truth, who is really guilty?
Who should be held responsible? Is it Syria or is it Hezbollah? Or are they both guilty?
If both are responsible, then why was Hezbollah not held accountable from the start?
The last time Iran attacked anyother country was close to over 200 years ago, can't say that about you Tinfoil, for your comment supports more unfair demoniziation of Iranians for another possible w ar. Just like this lie that is called an article about Iran being a threat, just like all the lies and fearmongering before invading Iraq and close to 1 million people dying because of it and the lives of many millions more devastated.
More attempts for diversion, as usual, from what will help with peace in that region and which will reduce tensions.
Actually, the last time Iran attacked another country was closer to 300 years ago (in the early 1700s).
Aren't there proxies that Iran uses? Does not the Iranian government use its own diversions when criticized?
I believe the issue really is that hardliners in Israel, Iran, and elsewhere are desiring a collision course and that's not good for anyone. The rhetoric coming from the Iranian government and some clerics doesn't help anyone's opinion of that country, nor does any of the alleged moves Iran has made. Every week I read news articles where someone in Iran or who is part of Iran makes unhelpful, rhetoric tinged statements.
Iran is allowing western media to demonize it, and doesn't appear to effectively be communicating counter statements or addressing any concerns brought up. I don't know how many would trust official Iranian news sources, either, because I for one see both Iranian and Israeli news medias as being too close to the situation to be fully partial.
And every time someone even cares to bring up a criticism or respond to a report of an event in Iran that reflects upon it negatively I usually see one of just a few predictable responses. Your response is a bit different than what I'm accustomed to seeing.
The kind of so called "investments" that some are talking about, and saying, are to help the people of Lebenan and Hizbollah in particular, is not the whole truth! The truth of the matter is that the mullahs are well aware of the fact that the thugs and "native sandis troops" are not reliable forces to crush the people of their own "blood". They have the experiences of the shah's overthrown. They are investing in that region for the "D" Day when the people in Iran would move to get rid of these criminals. That is the only reason for pouring all those wealth of the Iranians in that "DESERT". Israel in only a pretext which comes in a very "progerssive face" for a very ugly face of the mullahs. Don't be a fool to fall in that trap of the mullahs!
While the majority of Lebanese, Christian and Shia, may not agree with everything Hezbollah represents, they no doubt acknowledge that- as bombs rained down on Beirut in a state sponsored act of mass murder, its handful of light infantrymen showed tactical brilliance and extreme courage as they drove the invader out of Lebanese territory.
Achmadinejad's welcome is just another sign that the momentum is swinging in the Middle East. I'd like to see Netanyahu ride through an open car amidst surging crowds in his own capital. Not likely.
So yes, the more popular party in Lebanon looks to be having a lot of influence on the government of Lebanon, and yes, the Lebanese are swinging towards friendly relationships with the only power that will back them when their agressive neighbour to the South comes calling again with its gifts of destruction, and that has helped them rebuild the areas devastated from the last time that happened (while those who called themselves Lebanon's friends ignored Lebanon's calls for help), and who have just signed understandings and agreements to help modernise the entire infrastructure.
I would also point out that a readiness drill by what is effectively the Lebanese Defence Force is only alarming to those who would like Lebanon to be vulnerable to attack.
Hezbollah will most likely take over Lebanon no matter what happens with the tribunal. They might as well go ahead and continue the tribunal.
Who should I beleive, the tribunal or you.
Hezbollah could have taken complete control of lebenon for the last 15 years. They don't want to completley control it. They like the status quo.
"Israel and US: The new master of middle east."