Automakers, Fearing for Their Lives, Are Going Green Fast

There was a strange combination of excitement and fear at this year's Detroit Auto Show. Last year, Chrysler drove a herd of cattle through downtown Detroit to celebrate the launch of a new gigantic truck. This year Chrysler's main display was filled with electric vehicles that they may never be able to build, but see as their only path to redemption.

Green cars, in fact, might just solve all of the auto industry's problems. It makes good business sense to start getting off gasoline. As long as they're basing billion dollar product lineups on the current cost of a commodity (oil) that is hugely unstable, their industry will be unstable as well. This year's top-seller might suddenly seem obsolete as gas prices hit huge peaks and valleys, never finding a stable place in between.

And, of course, green cars also make PR sense. Toyota continues to bask in the light of the halo created by the Prius, even as their trucks, less efficient than Ford and Chevy's, earn them huge amounts of money. But even more pressing is the need to put forth a viable vision for the future, especially as Congress and U.S. citizens debate whether or not these companies are worth keeping afloat.

The more Ford, GM and Chrysler talk about their electric vehicles, the more they appear to be actually innovating, instead of stagnating.

The innovation has moved beyond appearances as well, at least at GM and Ford. Chrysler, having suffered from financial problems for the last couple of years has been doing a fine job of talking about their electric vehicles. But I have yet to see much evidence that they're doing the necessary research and development to actually make them work.

GM on the other hand has been developing the Chevy Volt electric car (with an on-board, gasoline range-extender to re-charge the batteries after 40 miles of pure-electric driving) for the last three years and will have the car on sale in late 2010. GM also showed off the Converj concept, luxury Cadillac coupe that would use the same technology as the Volt. But in bringing the Volt platform to Cadillac, GM hops to show that the system isn't about compromise, it's about a fantastic feature that's worth paying for.

Ford on the other hand is taking a more direct route to the electric vehicle. Instead of focusing on a truly broad appeal car like the Volt, they've promised to have a commercial-use electric van on the road by 2010 and a small all-electric car on the road by 2011. These cars aren't going to be high-volume, in fact, they'll almost certainly be restricted to select urban markets. But Ford is showing a commitment to these vehicles by working with as-yet-unnamed municipalities on developing incentives for EV drivers (monetary, parking and HOV lanes) as well as a network of charging stations.

As I look down on all of this on the plane flight home, the only thing I would prefer is if this hadn't had to happen for business reasons. If only the auto companies could have seen that developing sustainable and clean ways to drive their vehicles was good policy for its own sake. But I suppose I can't be too upset about what their motives are now that they're doing it. Let's hope that at least two of the big three are around next year, and, if so, that they continue down this path to the electrification of the automobile.

Comments

[Overtone]

Unconventional energy conversion systems are under development - tapping a never previously commercialized, renewable, abundant source of energy. These revolutionary new devices are inherently cost-competitive. They can make practical cars, trucks and buses that need no engines, banks of batteries, or any variety of conventional fuel or recharge.

Advanced designs are capable of producing electricity on a self-sustaining basis. Some devices without moving parts are comparable to an inexhaustible battery. One Proof-of-Concept prototype is analogous to the early work on the transistor, which eventually led to a Nobel Prize and the creation of Silicon Valley.

A generator we are developing is expected to generate sufficient power to demonstrate replacement of the plug needed by a plug-in hybrid car. A prototype new energy conversion system is anticipated to replace an automobile engine within three years. This will open a path to mass production of an entirely new variety of automotive power plant. Electric vehicles powered by these technologies will never require conventional fuel or recharge.

See: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/story?id=54361&cid=7763

[Darren Wilson]

Man, Cayuse! A 280-mile commute? Sounds like you need a plane, not a truck. I hear some execs aren't using theirs.

PS - i hope none of the Chevy gang out there gets wind of the stock Accord that hangs with your V-8 Camaro. There could be a riot.

[DallasMike]

The fear the auto maker have is anyone going to buy these green peices of crap>

[Atra]

Its been said before that gas/petrol engines and their continued development have retarded the advancement of other technology. The same with video in 80's, if the VHS format had been dropped DVD and other optical tech would have come a decade sooner. Instead electronic manufacturers enjoyed a period of stagnation, developing only long/short play technology whilst cash registers rang with delight. The Big 3 are no different. They stalled and held out until it seemed the only option was to manufacture Green vehicles. As seen in "Who Killed the Electric Car" GM had a head start, and over the last two decades could have made inroads with it, to make it competitive against gas powered vehicles.

These companies whilst holding no ones arm behind their back, know how we think, and what are fears and ideals are. They marketed massive vehicles no one should have even considered much less purchase. And now Joe Average shoulders the guilt for global warming, when the reality is manufactures knew better.

"...bunch of insane sociopath pigs"

There is no other words or phrase that could describe them more accurately.

[KillTheMessenger]

It is similar with the internal combustion engine which happens to be the best technical solution for engines of the 1hp to 1000hp regime. Beyond that gas turbines have advantages, below that it is hard to make reliably running engines with reasonable efficiency, but within its range the ICE is remarkably powerful and effective (even though it might not be efficient). And that is very hard to overcome with other technologies in a price sensitive market.

Nobody killed the electric car because it is still not alive with exception of specialty vehicles and golf carts and won't be for a while. If we cling to the performance envelope of a gasoline powered ICE, we won't have anything untethered that runs on electricity until we develop the still mythical aluminum battery, although that might eventually happen.

The history of technology is driven very much by science and the laws of nature and not nearly as much by marketing as it may appear.

[KillTheMessenger]

DVDs are not a replacement for VHS. VHS is magnetic tape for recording, while CD/DVD are primarily print once, read only technologies. CD-RW and DVD-RW media are extremely complex R&D products that required a completely new line of R&D and more powerful lasers that greatly differentiate them technologically from the original read only technologies. Only the consumer form factor is the same, which makes people think that it's only a small step from one to the other, but that's not the case.

If you want to look at the original read only disk media for video, that would be the Capacitance Electronic Disc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacitance_Electronic_Disc

which came out way in the past but was a total commercial flop.

[cayuse]

The FEAR is not the auto industry going green it will. FEAR is in the change in American society that GREEN is changing our physical and social way of life. And we are only see the tree and not the forest.

Physically because we will clean up the air, good, but we are POLLUTING our open spaces with windmills and solar panels. Electric plug in cars only work in Cities where everyone want to drive their own car to work and there is already public transit. Where else can you drove 40 miles before the next plug in. The next physical challenge will be can the cities function environmentally with all the people living there.

Socially because we are all going to live in the big cities. American open space is being sold for two policies "Energy Independence" and the transfer of Oil wealth to Green wealth. Paid for by people stacked on top of each other.

[feo]

Greener may be better, but consider what people actually bought in 2008. Ford F-Series pickups: 515,000; Toyota Prius: 157,000. That's a difference of 358,000. And remember that 2008 was a terrible year for vehicle sales.

[KillTheMessenger]

The F-150 has been in the market for a very long time and it is an established brand. In comparison the Prius and all other hybrids are very new. It takes 15-20 years for a new technology to take foothold in the automobile market and there is still a lot of distrust in the technology. The current hybrid buyers still are early adopters.

Of course, it is also true that very few F-150 drivers actually use their truck to haul stuff. A lot of these people will get squeezed by the economic downturn and learn a few hard lessons about buying what they need rather than buying what they want, so that will change consumer behavior. I would not expect them to go out and buy a Prius instead, though. But you will see a shift in the market towards useful cars and away from manhood extenders.

Currently three percent of all cars sold in the US are hybrids. Over the next ten years I would expect that to expand tenfold, maybe more. By 2025 we will see hybrids dominate the market and electric vehicles will have gained significant traction. The real push this year was the high price of gasoline. You will see those prices return over the medium term.

[theepoxyman]

You must consider that many of the trucks were bought for business use, a little prius will simply not haul many sacks of concrete and if you are cleaning out the stables............well, you just dont want that in the passenger compartment.

[senevada]

It's disingenuous to not acknowledge that the car companies have built exactly what the American people have been demanding, and buying, for years. The fact is, the government needs to grow a spine and regulate efficiency, and also take the burden of health care off the shoulders of industry, and in my opinion until that happens, it will be a very. very tough road for any of the big 3, even if they od retool all of their designs.

[onlyThis]

I still don't know if I'll ever buy an "American made" car. I owned some really crappily made American cars when I was young. I've been buying Honda ever since. I just don't trust Detroit to really build a good "green" car. They don't believe in doing the right thing they only believe in the bottom line no matter what. Yes, a company must focus on profits to stay viable but there must also be a sense of corporate responsibility which many American (and foreign) companies lack. I try to buy from the ones I see as trying to do good just becase it is right not just profitable.

[cayuse]

I still own allot of American Cars. My 1997 Expedition has 280,000 miles. My 1999 Camaro has 110,000 miles. These are great cars.

I quit driving the X because of gas prices except during winter driving over the PASS because it was a 4x4. At current gas I can drive it again when I need to haul the 4 dogs or just because.

The camaro I can not drive in winter. It gets 20+ mpg but is a rocketship at 330 HP and 3300 lbs. I gladdly pay to drive it.

We bought the wife a HONDA CIVIC and I admit it is terrific. It is so light it gets 44 mpg and is fast as the camaro if you drive at 7000 RPM. At 75 mph it gets 38 mph

[berkawoo]

If there is one thing that I hope that the Detroit 3 learn from now on is that the Oil Companies are not their friend. No matter how high or low the price of gas gets, It has to become ingrained in the Automakers that
the oil markets and oil producing countries are unstable, something that is not likely to change.
Produce hybrid electric continue research in making the internal combustion engine more fuel efficient.
It also can't hurt if Americans moved away from Big SUV's into compact and midsize vehicles. If you really don't need an SUV its better to drive a lighter weight vehicle. In the future don't be that 5% of SUV drivers that never use an SUV for what its designed for.

[KillTheMessenger]

Agreed, except that today's SUV were not even designed to do anything else than to be manhood extenders and in that sense pretty much every SUV buyer uses the car just for what it was made for.

[cayuse]

Hey Klr,

I cannot drive my camaro in winter, it is too fast even at 24 mpg. I have to use my X that gets 18 on the flat, but only 13 over the snowy PASS. But I have 4 dogs and a wife. We both work 280 miles away and fight IRS for tax deduction and we are losing.

We use our 44 mph Honda Civic in summer with 4 dogs and a wife. It looks better and is hotter. Driving an X is like smoking. DO GOODERS who think their cars don't stink.

I feel safer in the X than any other car I own except the (2) 1 Ton Chevs, 3/4 Ton Dodge RAM. To pull the 36 ' RV used where I work 280 miles away. I will buy a 4x4 that gets 30 MPG or nothing at all. I do not care who builds it. I sacrifice and will make my chose and not U

[Decipherer]

Excellent point, and one that I have made often hereabouts.

Big Oil has played the "Detroit 3" for almost 100 years, just like they played the rest of the country for over a century. Recall that Teddy Roosevelt ahd his trust busters had to take the Standard Oil monopoly and divide it into separate companies, something that may be required again.

Then, they convinced the automakers that their fuel was the best and only fuel for their products, keeping in mind that early cars were electric-, steam-, and ethanol-powered.

Big OIl did to the Detoit 3 what Microsoft did to IBM and its PC. In either situation, look who's on top?

Time to break our oil addiction -- now.

[cayuse]

Is it an Oil addiction. The oil and rich people are the ones who will own the GREEN revolution and you are subsidising the transfer. The government is footing the bill, why not have the government Nationalize energy. It cannot be created or distroyed?

With 55 Billion for Exxon last year, how many jobs were created. How much capital spending did they have in GREEN or otherwise. How much really went to dividends and CEO compensations or Enron transfers.

As Obama said "we should be as careful getting out of the OIL industry was we will be getting into the GREEN energy industry" Who pays and Who gains is important for our kids and their way of life

[joebaggadonuts]

With my long straw, I drink your milkshake, said the oil company to the car company. What milkshake? Consumer dollars.

[DeSwiss]

The weakest part of the idea of the B3s charting a Green course now, is that these are the same guys who charted toward different $reen not so long ago. This is that weak part I'm talking about.

Now, I'm not sure what the new business paradigm for the auto industry needs to be, but I'm pretty sure that the knuckleheads in management (including the board members), aren't the guys to get it done.

Sometimes quoting Albert Einstein is not just cliche'.....

"The problems we face today cannot be solved by the minds that created them."

[KillTheMessenger]

The only green cars I have seen in the news were the Honda Insight and the new Prius. Everything else looked like the usual decoys to divert the attention from the total failure of the industry.

[EinChicago]

Th ePrius is only "green" if you ignore the massive carbon footprint created by its manufacture. You may as well drive an F-150 if your concern is "green" as the carbon footprint is smaller for the first decade or so of the vehicle's life.

[KillTheMessenger]

Too bad that you don't have any proof for that alleged carbon footprint. You might as well have made it up. Which, incidentally, you did.

:-)

[cayuse]

U right KLR on this one. Except the Insight is no more, it got 100 mpg. Honda does other Hibrids for 30 in city. Industry is going for the city to use plug in cars with a 40 mile radius. Not useful in the rural, but then who needs open spaces. Let's all go to the "lobby", I mean city. Environmental what?

[KillTheMessenger]

If you haven't noticed, there is a new Insight. Which is weird because even your basement seems to have internet.

[tigerakabj]

Well, whatever motivation it takes for these car companies to get on the ball. It really is a due-or-die time for the country, and for them it is even clearer. They should have seen this coming decades ago, but they chose to stay in bed with the oil companies for whatever reason. They had that electric car back in the late 90s and killed it. So now its either put everything on the line, or die.