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Harlan Green

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What Has Caused Record Inequality (and Greater Recessions)?

Posted: 04/29/2012 7:47 pm

Economists Lawrence Mishel and Heidi Shierholz of the labor think tank Economic Policy Institute (EPI) have been asking this question in their latest work that is at the root of our various economic crises:

"Why did the richest 1 percent of Americans receive 56 percent of all the income growth between 1989 and 2007, before the recession began (compared with 16 percent going to the bottom 90 percent of households)? Why are corporate profits 22 percent above their pre-recession level while total corporate sector employees' compensation (reflecting lower employment and meager pay increases) is 3 percent below pre-recession levels?"

The answers have become becoming blindingly obvious in the glare of the Great Recession. A concerted effort by business interests in general, and Republicans in particular, instigated a massive transfer of newly created wealth from wage earners to the owners of capital via various measures, including lowering upper income tax rates, restricting employees collective bargaining, rolling back regulations on financial institutions, and the like.

Such a wealth transfer has caused tremendous harm to our economy and society. The major casualty has been recurring recessions since the 1970s brought on in large part by mountains of debt. In fact, most of that debt was taken out by households with declining incomes who took advantage of increasingly available credit to borrow to make up for their income shortfall.

What created the wealth? A huge increase in labor productivity brought on by information age technologies for the most part. Labor productivity has increased 254 percent since 1948. Hourly wages, however, increased just 113 percent. That can be seen in Figure A from the EPI, which presents both the cumulative growth in productivity per hour worked of the total economy (inclusive of the private sector, government, and nonprofit sector) since 1948 and the cumulative growth in inflation-adjusted hourly compensation for private-sector production/nonsupervisory workers (a group comprising over 80 percent of payroll employment).

2012-04-29-EPI.png
Figure A: EPI


That transfer of wealth since the 1970s has been well documented in books such as Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson's, Winner Take-all Politics that documents the massive lobbying effort by businesses to bring in business-friendly legislation and administrations resulting not only in the ownership of much of Congress, but an extremely conservative, corporate-friendly Supreme Court that in Citizen's United now allows unlimited corporate donations to political campaigns, and so corporate control of two of the three branches of government for years to come.

The other side of that coin is blatant attempts by Republicans to suppress incomes by taking away collective bargaining rights of both private and public sector workers, such as happened in Wisconsin. The result is the almost disappearance of the middle class that has been the main driver of growth since WWII.

Big Business chose to raise their own incomes and that of their shareholders, but not their workers' incomes, in other words. Yet Big Business was more than willing to lend consumers money via Wall Street and relaxed banking regulations, so much so that the personal savings rate dropped to almost zero during the Bush II administration, as the Calculated Risk graph clearly shows after peaking in 1980. Those consecutive recessions -- six since 1973 -- have been a tremendous drag on economic growth, in spite of the productivity increases.

2012-04-29-SAVINGS1.png
Graph: Calculated Risk

According to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, the percentage of households holding revolving credit card debt rose from 16 percent in 1970 to 71 percent in 2004.

Essentially, economic policy has not supported good jobs over the last 30 years or so," said EPI. "Rather, the focus has been on policies that were thought to make consumers better off through lower prices: deregulation of industries, privatization of public services, the weakening of labor standards including the minimum wage, erosion of the social safety net, expanding globalization, and the move toward fewer and weaker unions. These policies have served to erode the bargaining power of most workers, widen wage inequality, and deplete access to good jobs. In the last 10 years even workers with a college degree have failed to see any real wage growth.

All this has been part of an even larger trend, the maturing of our economy from industrial to a service-oriented economy dependent mostly on consumer demand, rather than capital investment as in the past. The result has been documented by Rutgers Economic Historian James Livingston. Though most economic activity over the past 100 years is generated by consumer spending, it hasn't benefited most consumers.

This has to change. We can no longer tolerate such a diversion of wealth that has weakened our economic and social fabric so much that we have fallen behind the rest of the developed world in education, health care, aging infrastructure, and even environmental protection.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wayne Caswell
Consumer Advocate & Founder of Modern Health Talk
10:28 AM on 05/01/2012
While workers lose their collective bargaining rights, corporate executives in interlocking directorates support each other's compensation packages.
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Wayne Caswell
Consumer Advocate & Founder of Modern Health Talk
10:24 AM on 05/01/2012
As workers feel more economic pressure and live paycheck to paycheck, they take on more debt and invest less, while those who own capital benefit from that debt and encourage more of it. This is made worse by slowing wage growth, removing bargaining power and social programs, increasing the cost of education, and cutting consumer protections. The more debt that consumers accept, the more profit the elite gain.
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Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
08:19 PM on 04/30/2012
This is EXACTLY what Republicans have been striving for since before Reagan took office. THIS is what "Supply Side Economics" gets us. Anyone who is surprised by this outcome simply has not been paying attention for the last thirty years. Every President since Reagan (including Clinton) has basically engaged in Supply Side Economics and just how has that worked out for any but the richest Americans? Yeah, not so great....
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koos458
The Weather is Aways Nicer in Coos Bay
06:38 PM on 04/30/2012
Another article that intelligently explains how we're getting taken to the cleaners. Deja vu all over again.
06:18 PM on 04/30/2012
spread sheet are great at measuring stuff like COGS, and other accounting measures.

they stink at measuring things like opportunity cost. we can't sell stuff we ain't got. that's the worst. too many spreadsheets ruling the roost right now. we need some holistic leadership. not quarter by quarter short term harvesters at the helm of businesses.

and for crying out loud, what's the use of having boards of directors when the chair and CEO are one and the same more often than not? where are the checks and balances now? as a shareholder/investor i look for companies that have viable policing..... plenty of insanity to go about right now.

no one seems to give a hoot about anything other than their own personal interest over the next bonus cycle....
02:40 PM on 04/30/2012
This is part of the "Starve the Beast" strategy, except in this case the beast is you... What could be better for big business than a population of uneducated worker bees?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
10:30 PM on 04/30/2012
An overseas population of worker bees that make about 3% of their U.S. counterparts.
12:42 PM on 05/01/2012
All in good time!
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muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
01:34 PM on 04/30/2012
It is not WHAT but WHOM has championed this? the short list....Rubin, Summers, Greenspan, Dodd, Frank, The Fed Reserve to include Bernanke, Geightner,& Immelt (GE)..Corporate. and Banksters Blankfein and Jamie Diamon..these people have been instrumental in either removing regulation or promoting regulation which allowed the 1% to cash in big time...
....Quantitative Easing by the Fed to bail out the crooked Banksters caused big devaluation of the dollar so that today in the last several years your grocery bill has doubled to include all commodities that the public must buy to survive.

Federal Reserve is answerable only to the BANK of England which is owned solely owned by the House of Rothschild. Their MOTTO to saddle the public with debt from cradle to grave. The Bankers motto: to force FORECLOSURE thru the courts as quickly as possible..

In the last 4 years the 1% have increased their holdings, cash, property, net asset value by 40%, the working public are now in the red. So the cry one hears today is ITS OFF to Work I go to make $8.35hr for 27 hrs with no benefits as my good paying job was OUTSOURCED to China...oh whoa is me.
12:06 PM on 04/30/2012
If you have something to sell that Americans are on average willing to pay you one dollar for; then you just made approx $310 million dollars. If you have something that everyone in the world is prepared to pay you an average of one dollar for; then you have just made approx $7 billion dollars. This is the difference between people like Gates and Jobs and someone like Henry Ford. Did Ford produce and sell ⅔ of its output outside the US in Henry Ford’s time? Of course, the superstars are going to make huge incomes today relative to earlier times - they are increasingly playing on a much larger world stage. On the other hand, if you are a barber cutting hair; then you are not selling your services any more customers than a barber did a century ago. Understanding the distribution of productivity gains requires an international perspective rather than just a national perspective. On a worldwide basis, the income inequality between people doing comparable jobs is declining rather than increasing.
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MassWG
11:32 AM on 04/30/2012
"All this has been part of an even larger trend, the maturing of our economy from industrial to a service-oriented economy dependent mostly on consumer demand, rather than capital investment as in the past."

And this is where we need to focus, because use of the term "maturing" is misleading. It implies a natural and unavoidable process, a simple outcome of the growth that comes with aging and evolving. But it would be more helpful and accurate to state "the DEGRADING of our economy from industrial to a service-oriented economy." Because we DID IT TO OURSELVES as a matter of conscious and deliberate policy.

The policy is to embrace BOTH economic growth and a desired level of government spending, at any cost, without regards to either future consequences or to societal benefit. Under an an international gold standard, the pressures to balance trade and to balance budgets force some level of compliance with the restraints of reality. Money, being tied to gold, cannot simply be created at will. But when the tie to gold is severed, credit can be expanded at will, creating an illusion of prosperity that MUST eventually come to an end.
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MassWG
11:31 AM on 04/30/2012
"Labor productivity has increased 254 percent since 1948. Hourly wages, however, increased just 113 percent. That can be seen in Figure A from the EPI..."

So let's consider that in light of our "maturing" economy. Note on the graph, the divergence occurs right when we left the gold-exchange standard in 1971. This marks the beginning of the age of globalization/financialization - a period where we departed from the idea of PRODUCING as much (or more) as we consumed. The transition (so-called "maturing") from an economy based in investment/production to one based in debt/consumption does not come without logically detrimental consequences.

This transition to a FIRE economy will naturally benefit the 1% disproportionately. It is an economy based in credit expansion and monetary inflation, and one that is only made possible by discarding the balancing mechanism of an international gold standard and embracing fiat money. Without gold to balance global trade, it becomes increasingly unbalanced, leading to credit bubbles, sovereign debt and financial crises.

This trend, resulting in large part from the use of the dollar as global reserve currency, was predicted as early as 1960 by Robert Triffin. Further warnings on globalism were given by Sir James Goldsmith in the early 90s. All the predictions are coming to pass. For those examining economic history, there are no surprises here (except for the fact that things aren't even worse than they are).

http://www.plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=161
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DrJykell
Truth hunter
09:53 AM on 04/30/2012
How did/Why did all that money get abroad when the Bush taxcuts were supposed to be an incentive for big business to create jobs here in America?
It was a lie?-----Is the new GOP agenda the same lie---on steroids?

It was a mistake that did just the opposite of what it was supposed to do.
It allowed the wealthy more opportunity to remove a larger percentage of wealth away from workers and out of America...

I believe Big business and the banksters need to be answering why was America abandoned after the GOP and past presidents de-regulated the financial corporations and gave the wealthy taxcuts to the top 1%? WHY WASN"T THAT MONEY REINVESTED IN AMERICA?

Groups like ALEC have been the model---to effectively,,more or less,,,,blackmail the American people by purposely pulling money out of the American economy to cause as much pain and sufferring on the American family as possible...---Speculators sent on a mission to push higher gas prices---using their extra bush tax cut money to kill the American solar panel markets----and help China corner the market while blaming dems for trying to create and compete for any of that anti-oil and gas agenda...Why won't big business help Americans?

Why do they hate us?
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MassWG
11:40 AM on 04/30/2012
"It was a lie?-----Is the new GOP agenda the same lie---on steroids?"

Yes. Without any mechanisms to keep investment domestic (changes in tax code, trade policy, etc.) those tax cuts will create jobs in China, not here.

But simply taxing them more won't help, either, because that may only serve to raise consumer prices and accelerate offshoring even more. In addition, stimulus is unlikely to work because consumers are either paying down debt or buying imported goods - neither creates jobs.

Answers and fixes are not coming from either party. (Buddy Roemer excepted.)
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ringo3khan
12:48 PM on 04/30/2012
I honestly believe that it isn't so much a question of them hating "us", (whoever "us" is), but rather, as I watched this debacle unfold, I had a recurring thought that what was really going on was that "they" saw the Bush administration as their last, best hope for raiding the pantry and getting theirs and getting out while the getting was good. And now all that's left is the "camp dividers", sowing the seeds of hatred along the lines of class and race and place. Its interesting to watch, from a distance, but at this point, the loots been made off with and those left behind are holding the $15 Trillion bill.
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
09:47 AM on 04/30/2012
Wealth equals more ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, once beautiful ecosystems gone forever, and the very real risk of a global ecological catastrophe that will wipe out many species, including perhaps ours. Is that how wealth should be measured?
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kdraper
Extremely happy
09:28 AM on 04/30/2012
After WWII, Germany was so fearful of the power of the corporate elite that they installed in their constitution the requirement that labor be represented in business decisions. Today, the working people have a voice in Germany. When the U.S. decided to pass the Wagner Act to allow the forming of unions, it was because of the tremendous majority of democrats in the house and senate that it was actually allowed to pass. The other reason it passed was at the time, hundreds of thousands of Americans were joining the Socialist and Communist party because the other options for them was the status quo. Capital was fearful! They had to throw them some type of a bone. Ever since then, Capital has been working and slaving to try and get union representation repealed. They are almost there. It took almost 90 years but it was well worth it for them. Do you think that the middle class could get any pro-union legislation passed today? Actually, we are going in the other direction and the sad thing is many of those who are going to affected the most agree with eliminating unions altogether. Instead of demanding better conditions and wages from their employers, they demand that those who are in unions give up their hard fought gains. How dumb is that! This is not going to end well.
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MassWG
11:47 AM on 04/30/2012
In the face of globalization/financialization, unions here can't make a dent in the current problems, which are based mostly in monetary policy. But they may play an important if (when?) our economy crashes completely and we rebuild ourselves once again as a producer-nation rather than a consumer-nation.
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muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
01:43 PM on 04/30/2012
excellent post FF: here this tune should go with your post....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iAIM02kv0g&feature=related
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Bart DePalma
Bart DePalma
09:08 AM on 04/30/2012
1) You compare productivity growth to the cost of labor not just the slice of a compensation package which is dedicated to wages. The cost of government mandates and health insurance has been steadily rising

2) The slice of the cost of labor dedicated to wages needs to be translated into the goods which can be purchased with those wages. The writer skipped over the fact that the gains in productivity were largely translated into lower prices to keep up with foreign competition, allowing workers to buy more with their dollars - an effective raise for all consumers.
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Robert SF
01:57 PM on 05/01/2012
1) It makes no difference because the utility of the health insurance remains the same. If your boss offered you $50k and then said your insurance cost him $950k, would you really go around thinking you made a million dollars? No, that would be stupid. You make $50k! Besides, it's corporations themselves who are raising the cost of health insurance. I don't know of any mom and pop insurance company, do you? They're all megacorps.

2) That analyisis has been done before. It turns out that cheap consumer electronics don't make up for the ever rising costs of housing, education, and health care. That's why, in 1970, a man with a highschool diploma could work with his hands 40 hours a week and feed a wife and child. Today, two college educated people working 55 hours a week each have to add things up over and over to see if they can even afford a child.
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linmarco
09:48 PM on 04/29/2012
Why is it that the term "class warfare" seems almost always to come from the ranks of the 1%? I'm in the 99% and I don't see any class warfare. My spouse and I live debt free and we certainly don't envy the wealthy. Those, with whom we associate, are like us not wealthy but also not on the corner with a cup. I have yet to hear any of them casting aspersions on the wealthy. Could it be that pointing out violation of the rule of law, no matter who does it, has become considered as whining? Just asking. So it goes.
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HarlanGreen
11:38 AM on 05/05/2012
I guess you could say most 'wars' are undeclared...this one since the 1970s when Big Business saw weakness in labor they took advantage of it and elected R Reagan, so that government became the problem, not the solution. As P Krugman has said in pseudo debate with Ron Paul, it's wanting to turn the clock back 150 years...it won't work, of course, if we want to at least keep up with the rest of the world.