My phone tends to ring a lot more when the weather is bad. I often get calls from reporters and producers who usually ask me the same question a bunch of different ways. "Is this global warming?" "Is climate change to blame?" "Is the weather getting worse?"
These are big -- almost existential -- questions. I suspect they are a polite way of asking, "Is this our fault?"
Climate scientists approach the question a little differently. We want to test how global warming shifts the odds of a severe weather event. Just like medical researchers do with cigarette smoking and lung cancer. In fact, this line of climate research comes straight out of epidemiology. In essence, we're doing autopsies on extreme weather events to find out what made them so bad-ass.
Depending on the type of extreme weather event, my answer can be short or long, straightforward or complicated. Keep in mind, all weather is now born into an environment that is warmer and moister because of man-made greenhouse gas pollution. But we don't always know what influences (man-made or natural) will win out on any given day.
Events like droughts, wildfires, heat waves and heavy downpours get my short answer. We know they are going to become more frequent, more intense, and last longer. In fact, we can already see this playing out in historical data. (For a complete overview, check out the "Global Climate Change Impacts in the US", as well as some newly published research summarized here.)
Tornadoes get the long answer. Will they become more frequent, more intense? Will Tornado Alley get bigger? Will the season last longer? Jeff Masters and Andrew Freedman have both done a great job laying out the state of the research.
The bottom line is that two of the key ingredients that go into making a tornado are expected to change as a result of global warming -- water vapor (moisture in the atmosphere) and wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height). Thanks in part to warmer oceans, water vapor has already increased about 4% and it will continue to increase as the planet warms -- providing more fuel for storms. But wind shear may decrease and that could mean fewer tornadoes. So which influence wins out -- increasing water vapor or decreasing wind shear? We don't know yet.
But even though we don't have all the answers -- and maybe never will -- we do know enough to act. And that is really the bigger point, the one I try to bring home when the phone rings. The recent National Research Council's "America's Climate Choices" report advised Congress that we know enough to get started on preparing for climate change and preventing the most severe consequences, and we need to get started right away. Almost anything we do to protect ourselves in the future from this hotter world we're creating, will also protect us right now from many of the extremes Mother Nature throws at us. We can't afford to wait.
Yet, despite this recent report, and despite all we do know about climate change, the topic has become the C-word in Washington, D.C. Just as the term "global warming" fell out of favor, the term "climate change" is now one that few in our nation's capital dare bring up in conversation, much less in legislation. Budgets for climate research have been threatened and now a nominee for Commerce Secretary is garnering opposition in large part because of his stance on environmental issues, including global climate change.
As the people of Joplin, Missouri begin the slow, painful process of rebuilding their lives -- a new wave of extremes is making headlines. A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts on Wednesday after rare and powerful tornadoes ripped through the city of Springfield and smaller towns nearby. At the same time, long-standing temperature records fell as a wall of heat blanketed the eastern half of the country -- Washington, D.C. set a new daily record high of 98°F -- busting the old record that dated back to 1895. Hurricane season also started this week and forecasters expect it to be busier than usual. And I'm here ready for the phone to ring again, so that I can tell you one more time that if we do nothing to adapt and reduce our greenhouse gas pollution, things will only get worse... and yes, it will be our fault.
Heidi Cullen is a climate scientist at Climate Central (www.climatecentral.org) -- an independent, non-profit journalism and research organization. She is also a Visiting Lecturer at Princeton University and the author of The Weather of the Future.
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No, he's actually right. And in 1988 when Hansen testified about global warming, they chose the statistically hottest day of the year and opened all the windows so the room would be hotter.
"This women is a legitimate expert." Yeah if you smoke crack. She knows nothing. I've seen her on Colbert report and I've seen her in congress. She says very misleading things and is wrong about most of what she says.
But they're still true, and she has still published research in climate science, in peer-reviewed journals. Have you? Ever?
But gainsaying all the experts on the fact that water vapor causes additional warming to that caused directly by CO2 would require scientific expertise, which you have just admitted you do not have.
And can you find those comments by Heidi Cullen in the Congressional Record, and post the URL here?
"All the evidence shows that average global temperatures have been rising continuously for at least 4 decades now. This is not surprising given that it has been proven that the Earth is radiating less energy to space since the 1970s in the CO2 absorption bands."
Yeah Mike, and before that the earth cooled for 40 million years. We aren't even close to the GAT of the last 600 million years. Also, your completely wrong about the co2 absorption bands. It's been found that more radiation is escaping into space than was thought.
No - I simply won't accept that. It's all a hoax.
And as far as anyone knows, the little ice age wasn't part of a cycle either. Most of the major climate changes in the past show no signs of being part of a cycle, they are considered acyclic, like this one.
Like the EPA?
No thanks
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=heidi cullen
What are your qualifications?
http://www.desmogblog.com/lindzen-wipes-hands-clean-of-oil-and-gas
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Steve_McIntyre
Lindzen hasn't been a scientist for years and McIntyre never was.
Then every month, (or every 3 months) the tax collected would be distributed in equal share to each US citizen (or taxpaying legal resident).
Most of the bureaucracy necessary for this should already exist in the Department of the Interior and the IRS.
And you make it sound like no one pays the Tax. Obviously that is dead wrong. everything that uses power would go up in price for one thing
Because of Mbeki's denialism, hundreds of thousands of people have died. It took eleven years before the people could vote the comforting lies of office.
A similar pattern is happening in America now. Some politicians don't like the truth, so they attack the scientists. And people do not want to be inconvenienced, so attacking the scientists makes them feel better.
How many people will die because of the denialism surrounding global warming?
The earth is a closed system like a box. It has fixed inputs that do not vary much over time and fixed outputs that do not very over time. Those inputs and outputs have not changed much in the last thousand years. The earth maintains it’s temperature zones and climate by flows that move heat by way of wind and water on a continuous basis (the Japanese Current and Gulf Stream for example).
Now the earth has increasing levels of CO2 gas. This causes more heat to be in the system due to reflectivity changes in radiation coming in to the earth. THE EARTH IS A CLOSED SYSTEM. So how does the earth react then it wants to increase the flows that maintain the temperature zones. This means more water flowing into the rivers that feed the currents (in this case the Gulf Stream). Increasing the water flow decreases the salinity of the flow.
Quite simply the earth wants to get back to a time when the heat balance was better say 1955 when Elvis sang in Denver. So Mama Nature creates bigger el ninos and el ninas creating more rain storms that feed the rivers which feed the currents. So you are looking at more hurricanes and more thunder storms and more floods.
What I found was that in my travels, many thrird world denizens actually believe in climate change-even the undeducate/poor ones. Our country is in full blown reverse evolution-at last big parts of our country. Perhaps this explains why many third world countries are growing rapidly and ours is going down. Willingness to beleive in faith despite all the evidence against you is more Taliban than the rational age.
Science is responsible for everything from open heart surgery, elevators, airplanes, automobiles, medicine etc.e tc.-NOT FAITH. Many of these fields all went through growth phases/mistakes/people trying to profit. But science triumphs -because it is peer reviwed.
Talking about profit-Churches are the biggest benefeciary of non profit status in this country. That rapture pastor alone has over 100 million dollars. Many pastors fly around in private jets. many climate change deniers have non profits that are rolling in cash and unlike science-they have no reason to present evidence-just say whatever comes out of their mouth-pretty much a republican strategy these days.
The mechanism by which it would happen if it could is that accumulation of green house gases would greatly increase humidity, further magnifying the greenhouse effect and causing warming resulting in more evaporation from the oceans. That would continue until the oceans boiled away. Emissions of carbon dioxide from volcanoes would continue increasing CO2 content. Water in the upper atmosphere would be dissociated by UV sunlight. The hydrogen would escape leaving only the oxygen which would oxidize other elements. In the end you'd end up with a CO2 N2 atmosphere with the ratio of the two determined by how long plate tectonics can continue without liquid water.
Probably won't happen until the sun has heated to the point where zero CO2 is too much CO2. Half a billion to a billion years. But we can do a lot of damage to ourselves with lower levels of global warming.
Well, maybe you should stay around because if we let you free, you’ll just come up with some other scare to foist upon us. I can’t imagine what it will be but it will be a doozy.
BTW, how many millions have been spent and how much do you think she has received in tax dollars?
You surely can’t be against debating the issue can you?
Gore has been invited to debate many times but he won’t because he knows he can’t prove his hypothesis and especially against the thousand of scientist who don’t agree with him.
I’m sorry, he’s your guy and he’s the guy who needs to prove it and he can’t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nxF0-HQB5I
These weather events, all from drought, extreme rain and snow storms, fires, heat waves, and extreme storms like tornadoes can all be seen going back to the link of climate change.
Extreme storms- tornadoes included have extra water vapor, as a fuel to increase their power.
These storms will increase as the decade progresses. Lets hope that we all can understand the dynamics in play, and realize we could be next, no matter where we are. A sobering thought about the kind of future that lies ahead for us.
a very different world
"Tea Party." As always, it's the sheer ignorance and stupidity of this majority of white voters which is screwing us all up.