The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever

It's now official: The country has lost more jobs as a percentage of peak employment than at any time since the Great Depression.

This includes the recessions of the early 1980s, even when they are combined.

Those looking for a v-shaped recovery keep insisting that jobs will come roaring right back, the way they did in the 1948 recession. (see the blue line in the chart from Calculated Risk).

Anything's possible, but this seems unlikely. In 1948, U.S. consumers were not still saddled with the massive debts that are stifling consumption today. And consumers still represent 70%+ of spending.

The other interesting point with respect to the 1948 "V" is that we have now gone as many months from the peak as it took employment to recover in full in the 1948 recession. And we're still losing jobs.

Most importantly, regardless of what the jobs recovery eventually looks like, it hasn't started yet. The economy is still losing 250,000+ jobs a month. The average workweek, which should be the first indicator to turn up, also fell in August to match its record low. This would not seem to be consistent with a sustained, v-shaped recovery.

See Also: How Today's Bear Market Compares To The 1970s (Which Really Sucked)

 

 

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Comments

[edg1]

We outsource technical and administrative jobs to India. We outsource manufacturing jobs to China. We move from tech bubble to housing bubble to derivatives bubble. Is it any wonder this massive and probably permanent unemployment is happening? You cannot give jobs away to the rest of the world and expect your own country to survive.

[Bobmacheski]

I have a job in construction but my boss says in another three months we will all be out of work - we had over two hundred people working here in February and now there are only thirty. I have not seen a single stimulus related project come out in our trade. I know that most of the stimulus money has yet to be spent so I hope that when it does there will be alot of work. I don't mind if they have to raise the taxes on my boss as long as there will be a lot of government related work.

[marinara]

Thank you, Mr. Blodget. Love to see stuff like this.

[LCLA]

George Santayana said, "Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it."
He's right, of course, but we are finding that in economics history is not everything.
Charts and graphs are fascinating, but economic prognostication remains as weak as weather forecasts. Sometimes sticking your head outside will give you much better information.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

Note the most recent 4 recessions are consistantly lasting longer than the previous recession (1981, 1990, 2001,2007).

This time around, the fundementals are noi longer in place for any true job recovery at all. Consumer borrowing for homes and on credit cards has been greatly reduced. Consumer's jobs are being shipped to Asia and are not returning, thus reducing consumer's income and likewise spending. Trade imbalance will force the dollar to drop in value and further reduce inflation adjusted consumer spending. The Government is already overspending at an unsustainable rate.

[hypnotoad72]

And wages. Don't forget, adjusted for inflation, wages have been stagnant at best.

Never mind the government IF they are bought and sold like how all the cynical folks claim. Those bought and sold are just doing someone else's dirty work.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

Yes, add stagnent wages at best. Another way to see it is look at the massive shift of income and wealth to the upper 1% of the population. Since the top 1% is a very small part of consumer spending, and the other 99% are correspondingly short of money to spend, the net result is expect the 70% of the economy dependent on consumer spending to shrink.

[donnajr]

recovery will take place when private employment surpasses government employment . right now more people draw paychecks from government agencies than manufacturing & construction combined. Houston we have a problem.

[Hailmaryyy]

Until the broken credit markets are fixed there can be no V-shaped recovery. We sold 16 million cars in 2007. We are on pace to sell 10 million cars in 2009. Over half of the country has a subprime credit score and those people are basically locked out of the credit markets.

We need to stimulate demand to create jobs. The only way to do that is to restore access to affordable credit to small businesses and consumers.

http://www.escapethenewgreatdepression.com

[dscotese]

How much credit do you want? What rate are you willing to pay? Once you have this money, how will you stimulate demand? What makes you think that will work anyway?

I don't see the lack of "affordable credit" as a problem. I think it's a solution to the problem of too many people borrowing beyond their means and not enough people saving. Of course, saving DOLLARS is kind of pointless now because the Fed is printing so many, and eventually the banks will lend them, and that will lead to bad inflation, but you can save in other ways. Saving just means bulking up your resource pool. Your resources consist of knowledge, relationships, goods, means of production (do you have a BBQ?), etc., in addition to money.

So I disagree. I think each of us can solve the problems in our own futures (having to do with taxes that are too high, too much government interference, and deteriorating social fabric as a result of these first two) by thoughtful frugality and careful attention. We can also help each other through honest trading and the abandonment of the expectation that the government will fix things. That expectation itself gives the rulers license and motive to interfere more and screw things up more, and since their track record of helping by interfering is pretty bad, they need to be stopped, not encouraged.

[Troubledwawa]

And to think that at sometime in the near future, Ben Bernanke is going to have to defend the dollar.

[nellyb stl]

America not only had a balanced budget with no deficit, but had a surplus during the Clinton administration. Then came the 'unfair' trade agreements -- which haven't been corrected to this day. Then came Bush and Congressional approval of his strike on Iraq. Then came the Financial Crisis and it's present offspring, our Jobless Recovery. We can't scrimp and save our way out of this one; especially since Congress is unwilling to admit that Wall Street owns our Government. What's the answer? I wish I knew. Certain it's not what we've been doing. Do we wait for the 2nd Great Depressio? Who Cares as long as they can put their millions in their off-shore bank accounts.

[toje]

We could plausibly dig out of every hole you just mentioned. But what you failed to include is the permanent tripling of the annual deficit by the current administration. This may very well be the straw that breaks the camel's back. And for what? To create new entitlements for political favorites, to completely tear down and rebuild a health care system that currently takes care of 90% of American citizens who wish to partake, and to theoretically reduce a small percentage of carbon dioxide emissions put forth by our country while the largest polluters remain unchecked. It is completely irresponsible.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

It's those wars that are draining the government coffers. About half of the stimulous was a tax break for the rich ($300 billon to relax the alternate minimum tax). Most of the bailout money went to the Wall Street rich including their hedge fund investors.

I do agree the CO2 tax is VERY HARMFULL to our economy. I also agree the health cae reform has been hijacked by the insurance companies that own both Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats (as well as Rahm Immanual). But Republicans are owned lock stock and barrell by the money launderers.

[seawolf77]

You can't get better until you finally admit your sick, take your medicine, and change your ways. We have yet to reach stage 1, where by the American public would be told mistakes have been made and we'll all have to help each other out of this mess. Force people to downsize until they finally realize they are not as rich as borrwoed money made them feel. Then crate a new economy preparing for a post oil world. The US would look as shiny as a brand new penny.

[Patriot til Death]

Or pass the Fair Tax and watch trillions of dollars pour in from overseas not to mention all the jobs that were exported to foreign countries will come back too.

[Bobotheclown]

"Force people to downsize..." You sound like you believe that downsizing is a choice that people can make but for some reason they just don't do it. People are in the positions they are in because of forces beyond their control. They have made the best decisions they can given the structure of the economy. Now that the economy has changed they are trapped. There is no down sizing choice available. There is only government action left to correct a massive distortion of fundamental market forces. True, if the government does not take action, then nature will. And this time it will not be gentle like the Great Depression was. This time it will be hard.

[Bobotheclown]

If the first step to solving a problem is to admit that a problem exists, why isn't this chart on the front page of every newspaper in America? This is information that the informed few seem to have been discussing almost in private for years. The fact is that as a few experts said as long ago as 2002, this recession is not like the others, that this is a major reorientation of the economic system. If we believe that our democracy depends on a strong middle class, this chart has clear national security implications. Yet, with an unemployment problem larger than 1948, 1958, etc, less is being done to correct it than was done in any previous correction. The stimulus is large, yes, but it is focused on stabilizing the banking system which is a secondary problem if one is saying that the problem is the growing structural disenfranshment of the largest section of the population: the middle class. The solutions of FDR's 1930's are still untried and could still turn this situation around but if those solutions are delayed long enough they will not work. Ultimately a collapse will stabilize the system but at a great social cost. I hope there is a political will to use radical solutions before that happens.

[stargazer13]

Oh How ? did our country even exist before the private federal reserve

Oh how did our country even get along before the I.R.S.

Oh how I wonder about these thing,s

[dscotese]

Yeah, when was the American Revolution? Was it 2/3/1913, the day the amendment that allowed the federal government to force every citizen with a job to pay tribute in the year they finally conquered the private independent banking system that had already beat down two central bank coup attempts? Sounds like the opposite of a revolution to me.

Celebrate Dependence Day, Feb 13th, 1913 the day the political class and the bankers became dependent on the slave labor of the citizens of the USA. Yay Bankers and Poiticos! There should be a website with an application for a banking license.

[stargazer13]

F.B.I.

Did an investigation and guess ? What ?

the Banks are responsible for more then 80 % of this mess !!

what I would like to know is why is our government standing Idol as millions of american
people are sacrificed to the banks while our country is hemorrhaging job,s at an unprecedented rate
which leads straight to fore closer of the peoples home which are now or soon to be homeless

government has once again failed in governing

and once again the people Suffer but hey look the bright side bank,s also get to our homes for 5cents on the dollar ~ once again making a great profit !!

[dscotese]

Oh don't ask why they're idle. They might start screwing things up even more.

[dart79]

Unless America develops a comprehensive strategy to develop industries that are sustainable and generate genuine value, the future looks bleak. To date, many of our politicians are pawns for global corporations and extremely wealthy people. Both are not loyal to America, democracy, society or humanity. The masses have relinquished their rights and are happy to consume and speculate. We all need to become more active and become citizens again before its to late.

[jmpurser]

Agreed. Our industries disappeared without a plan. They won't come back without one. And right now I don't see anyone with a national plan in Washington.

[3rdpartypatriot]

Awesome post and never a truer statement have I seen on this website.

[allwrite]

I am attracted to the word sustainable, but feel that the nation must first define the limits and nature of a sustainable lifestyle and then develop a plan to move the country in that direction, all else to flow from that.

[hypnotoad72]

Excellent points!

Now the question is "how".

[dscotese]

Honestly, I think the way out of this mess will be to break laws:

Minimum wage is killing the apprenticeship idea. Unemployment insurance and use is killing motivation in employers and employees. Red light cameras are killing off any rapport between city hall and city residents. The income tax is killing all kinds of good, and encouraging the government to go at it even harder. These and many other laws are broken more and more every day, and when there is enough backlash against the authorities that try to enforce them, their stranglehold on us will loosen, and they will dwindle, and we will begin to prosper again, like we did at the dawn of America and her spirit of '76.

It's going to be very difficult. Those of us with loved ones to care for will often choose to resentfully obey these laws for the sake of our families. But we will cheer you on if you can be more independent and help lead this effort. Please note that I am IN NO WAY advocating that anyone break any laws!

[Micki Pacific]

The 2007 depression line looks like the inverse of the rise in popularity of Facebook and YouTube.

[stargazer13]

or the Popsicle index