Hamas' victory in the Palestinian elections of last week seems to have surprised many interested parties in the international community, including President Bush and Condoleezza Rice. Our Secretary of State admitted over the weekend that the U.S. underestimated Hamas' strength, which may be one reason why President Bush was once again his incoherent self at a press conference last week. (Whenever Mr. Bush laughs, smiles and gestures a lot, you know he has no idea what to say, and Mr. Bush was beaming and his arms flailing when asked about the Palestinian election results.)
I suppose one must commend the State Department chief for her honesty in admitting a complete failure in what is, after all, her department's job, but that failure begs a number of questions, not least of which is, why? Why should Ms. Rice or any of her underlings be surprised that Hamas is as popular or powerful a force in the Palestinian territories as it is? Ms. Rice is quoted as having said on Sunday that "I don't know anyone who wasn't caught off guard by Hamas' strong showing," a telling statement, if true, of either how very few people Condi must know or of how terrified career diplomats at the State Department are of telling the truth.
Anyone with even a passing interest in Palestinian politics was well aware of how discredited Fatah has become since Arafat's death and how popular Hamas (through both the social services they provide and their fierce opposition to Israel) has become. One fact of the Middle East that many Americans tend to miss is that anyone or any group that remains an enemy of Israel will have strong support amongst ordinary people, whereas anyone or any group that appears to accommodate Israel without improving the lot of the Palestinian people will quickly lose support. Although Arafat negotiated with Israel and recognized its right to exist, and despite the corruption that was as endemic in his organization then as it is now, he is revered still for his refusal to give in to what many Palestinians saw as the excessive demands of Israel and the United States.
The continued refusal of the U.S. to have any contact (let alone negotiations) with groups or political parties that oppose American (or Israeli) interests in the region is a key factor in the "surprise" that the Bush administration has registered over Hamas' win. We can say that we don't deal with terrorists or terrorist organizations until we're blue in the face, but that won't change the reality that these "terrorist" organizations, whether Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and even the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, will continue to surprise us anytime their agendas are put to a fair vote.