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Howard Fineman

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Kentucky Derby 2012: Betting on Candidates the Way You'd Bet on a Horse

Posted: 05/05/2012 1:05 pm

LOUISVILLE -- If you are here on Derby Weekend, it's easy to lapse into thinking that Louisville is the center of the world, or at least America.

It's neither. The crowds here don't "look like America" as our increasingly diverse country is defined. This is a whiter, older, more Anglo and more Southern scene than the new normal -- though it was notable that, for the first time, a female jockey won the Oaks race for fillies.

Still, the Derby at its upper reaches is a magnet for politicians, not so much for the old reason -- publicity -- as for the proximity of money. People who come here bet on candidates the way they bet on horses. They study the field, the track, the weather and the record.

The rumor on the Sky Terrace yesterday was that Mitt Romney was going to come to town today. I reported it -- quickly and, I confess sloppily. I evidently was wrong. He has "no public events" today, according to his campaign. Mitt's also busy with family matters: his son Tagg's wife just gave birth to twins. I blame my flub on two mint juleps.

I could see why he'd still be tempted by some private events. There are dinners and other to-dos around town where politicians -- the Dems and the GOPs both -- would very much want to have a chance to meet with would-be bettor/donors.

On the Democratic side, there is a younger generation of pols mingling with a new generation of donors. The former include Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, who is widely regarded as a man interested in running for president in 2016, as is Virginia Senator Mark Warner, who considered running but didn't in 2008. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was here too, to talk up a horse race in L.A., he said.

The big political news this morning comes from across the Ohio River in Indiana. Six-term GOP Senator Richard Lugar, a former pillar of what formerly was a GOP establishment, is badly trailing his tea partyish rival, Richard Mourdock, for the party nomination.

As a contrast, perhaps, to the day's activities here, President Obama will be headlining his first two official campaign rallies, in Columbus, Ohio and Richmond, Virginia.

 

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LOUISVILLE -- If you are here on Derby Weekend, it's easy to lapse into thinking that Louisville is the center of the world, or at least America. It's neither. The crowds here don't "look like Americ...
LOUISVILLE -- If you are here on Derby Weekend, it's easy to lapse into thinking that Louisville is the center of the world, or at least America. It's neither. The crowds here don't "look like Americ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Nic the wonder puppy
When life throws lemons, throw them back
11:25 AM on 05/07/2012
I'm only a dog but, it can't be like betting on the Kentucky derby, the derby has about 20 horses the Presidency only has about 2
11:14 AM on 05/07/2012
I like O'Malley. I used to like Warner, but he's just another corporatist.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gevan
Give bees a chance
12:22 PM on 05/06/2012
What are my odds now on a "show" ticket?
10:09 AM on 05/06/2012
Oh, come on, many of these horses are owned by Middle East shieks and billionaires. What does that have to do with our fiercely independent candidates?
09:44 AM on 05/06/2012
Horses are way too noble to even be mentioned in an article about politics.
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07:24 AM on 05/06/2012
  Howard Fineman.  Drinking mint juleps is a man of the world and refined tastes.  You should stay off the booze and write about candidate's sets and empty sets of proposals as relates to the condition and direction of our American democracy.  Sacrifice for your family and the future of our nation.  Report the relevant and factual and contrast it with what should be (as written in the Preamble and Constitution).  Don't act out of trepidation or timidity.  You only live once---Operate on  that obvious fact.  Good luck.
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bikerdude
On the left side of progressive
06:08 AM on 05/06/2012
Only you "pundits" bet on candidates like you do horses... Trying to get on up on your peers and trying to appear knowledgable... it's a business. Millions of dollars dumped onto the media to influence the voters. Right now it seems to be a sick a process as has ever existed...
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StillAmused
Some mayo on that troll, please...
05:44 AM on 05/06/2012
Don't mean to pressure you, Howard, but did you have a point to make?
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bikerdude
On the left side of progressive
06:09 AM on 05/06/2012
He wanted you to notice how smart he is and how nice his hair looks.... Howard IS the point.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gevan
Give bees a chance
12:23 PM on 05/06/2012
Derby Day is FUN FUN FUN.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
henrypapillon
Put a Psychiatrist in every NRA meeting.
03:44 AM on 05/06/2012
Right now Obama INTRADE stock is $5.99 a share, while Mitt is at $3.59. An astute businessman like Rominee purports himself  to be should get the message on this one.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vidtrainer110
Fear is the tool of tyrants
08:05 AM on 05/06/2012
I love Intrade!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Blue Pup in PHX
Howdy from Hicksvillle
12:35 AM on 05/06/2012
Hey Howard, whoever did the "drop in" photo for your article from the main Politics page needs a slap upside the head. They have the lead to your article followed by a picture of a Grand Prix dressage horse. For those who are not equestrian-minded... Dressage horses are the type of horse ridden in the Olympics... Race horses run at the track. To a "horse-person," that photo error is hilarious... best analogy I can think of would be a picture of Mike Tyson in an ad for feminine products or better yet an ad for beauty creme followed by a picture of Jan Brewer.... get it now? It's a major and obvious faux pas....oops.
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12:29 AM on 05/06/2012
The favored Republican horse, ideologue, candidate and ways of life lost at the Derby!
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12:27 AM on 05/06/2012
***his son Tagg's wife just gave birth to twins***

Jeeze, Howard, get your facts straight: their twins were born via surrogate.

What other "facts" have you missed?
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PeaceLuvJoy
Criminalize guns and only criminals will have guns
12:04 AM on 05/06/2012
When ever I bet on horses, I always bet on the one who poops first when they're walking to the starting line. It's going to be tough applying that strategy on this election.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Resist We Much
12:01 AM on 05/06/2012
Is that Obama riding 6?
fullofmitt
Willard was a rat in a movie!
07:28 AM on 05/07/2012
MYTH is on the horse that ran last...like in up-coming election for POTUS! The difference is that in the race for POTUS...MYTH IS the "HORSE"!
11:49 PM on 05/05/2012
The article totally neglected to mention that the horse is Canadian-owned, jockey is Mexican national, but working in Canada. So, this year's Kentucky Derby was a fully-charged and loaded hot political potato that all politicos will totally miss seeing the bigger picture.